TY - JOUR
AB - We propose an indicator for detecting anomalous stock market valuation in real time such that market participants receive timely signals so as to be able to take stabilizing action. Unlike existing approaches, our anomaly indicator introduces three methodological novelties. First, we use an endogenous, purely data-driven, nonparametric trend identification method to separate long-term market movements from more short-term ones. Second, we apply SETAR models that allow for asymmetric expansions and contractions around the long-term trend and find systematic stock price cycles. Third, we implement these findings in our indicator and conduct real-time market forecasts, which have so far been neglected in the literature. Applications of our indicator using monthly S&P 500 stock data from 1970 to the end of 2022 show that short-term anomalous market movements can be identified in real time up to one year ahead. We predict all major anomalies, including the 1987 Bubble and the initial phase of the Financial Crisis that began in 2007. In total, our anomaly indicator identifies more than 80% of all – even minor – anomalous episodes. Thus, smoothing market exaggerations through early signaling seems possible.
AU - Fritz, Marlon
AU - Gries, Thomas
AU - Wiechers, Lukas
ID - 50719
JF - Quantitative Finance
KW - General Economics
KW - Econometrics and Finance
KW - Finance
SN - 1469-7688
TI - An early indicator for anomalous stock market performance
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - Individual cognitive functioning declines over time. We seek to understand how adverse physical health shocks in older ages contribute to this development. By use of event-study methods and data from the USA, England, and several countries in Continental Europe, we find evidence that health shocks lead to an immediate and persistent decline in cognitive functioning. This robust finding holds in all regions representing different health insurance systems and seems to be independent of underlying individual demographic characteristics such as sex and age. We also ask whether variables that are susceptible to policy action can reduce the negative consequences of a health shock. Our results suggest that neither compulsory education nor retirement regulations moderate the effects, thus emphasizing the importance for cognitive functioning of maintaining good physical health in old age.
AU - Schiele, Valentin
AU - Schmitz, Hendrik
ID - 35637
JF - European Economic Review
TI - Understanding cognitive decline in older ages: The role of health shocks
VL - 151
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - We propose a new method to estimate and isolate the localization of knowledge spillovers due to the physical presence of a person, using after-application but pre-grant deaths of differently located coinventors of the same patent. The approach estimates the differences in local citations between the deceased and still-living inventors at increasingly distant radii. Patents receive 26 percent fewer citations from within a radius of 20 miles around the deceased, relative to still-living coinventors. Differences attenuate with time and distance, are stronger when still-living coinventors live farther from the deceased, and hold for a subsample of possibly premature deaths. (JEL O31, O33, O34, R32)
AU - Balsmeier, Benjamin
AU - Fleming, Lee
AU - Lück, Sonja
ID - 42638
IS - 1
JF - American Economic Review: Insights
KW - Management
KW - Monitoring
KW - Policy and Law
KW - Geography
KW - Planning and Development
SN - 2640-205X
TI - Isolating Personal Knowledge Spillovers: Coinventor Deaths and Spatial Citation Differentials
VL - 5
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - We study how competition between physicians affects the provision of medical care. In
our theoretical model, physicians are faced with a heterogeneous patient population, in which patients
systematically vary with regard to both their responsiveness to the provided quality of care and their
state of health. We test the behavioral predictions derived from this model in a controlled laboratory
experiment. In line with the model, we observe that competition significantly improves patient benefits
as long as patients are able to respond to the quality provided. For those patients, who are not able
to choose a physician, competition even decreases the patient benefit compared to a situation without
competition. This decrease is in contrast to our theoretical prediction implying no change in benefits for
passive patients. Deviations from patient-optimal treatment are highest for passive patients in need of
a low quantity of medical services. With repetition, both, the positive effects of competition for active
patients as well as the negative effects of competition for passive patients become more pronounced. Our
results imply that competition can not only improve but also worsen patient outcome and that patients’
responsiveness to quality is decisive.
AU - Brosig-Koch, Jeannette
AU - Hehenkamp, Burkhard
AU - Kokot, Johanna
ID - 44092
JF - Health Economics
KW - physician competition
KW - patient characteristics
KW - heterogeneity in quality responses
KW - fee-for-service
KW - laboratory experiment
TI - Who benefits from quality competition in health care? A theory and a laboratory experiment on the relevance of patient characteristics
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) enables researchers in international management to better understand how the impact of a single explanatory factor depends on the context of other factors. But the analytical toolbox of QCA does not include a parameter for the explanatory power of a single explanatory factor or “condition”. In this paper, we therefore reinterpret the Banzhaf power index, originally developed in cooperative game theory, to establish a goodness-of-fit parameter in QCA. The relative Banzhaf index we suggest measures the explanatory power of one condition averaged across all sufficient combinations of conditions. The paper argues that the index is especially informative in three situations that are all salient in international management and call for a context-sensitive analysis of single conditions, namely substantial limited diversity in the data, the emergence of strong INUS conditions in the analysis, and theorizing with contingency factors. The paper derives the properties of the relative Banzhaf index in QCA, demonstrates how the index can be computed easily from a rudimentary truth table, and explores its insights by revisiting selected papers in international management that apply fuzzy-set QCA. It finally suggests a three-step procedure for utilizing the relative Banzhaf index when the causal structure involves both contingency effects and configurational causation.
AU - Haake, Claus-Jochen
AU - Schneider, Martin
ID - 34114
JF - Journal of International Management
KW - Qualitative comparative analysis
KW - Banzhaf power index
KW - causality
KW - explanatory power
TI - Playing games with QCA: Measuring the explanatory power of single conditions with the Banzhaf index
ER -
TY - JOUR
AU - Hoyer, Britta
AU - van Straaten, Dirk
ID - 30341
JF - Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics
KW - General Social Sciences
KW - Economics and Econometrics
KW - Applied Psychology
SN - 2214-8043
TI - Anonymity and Self-Expression in Online Rating Systems - An Experimental Analysis
VL - 98
ER -
TY - JOUR
AU - Hoyer, Britta
AU - De Jaegher, Kris
ID - 31881
JF - International Journal of Game Theory
TI - Network Disruption and the Common-Enemy Effect
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - AbstractNon-pharmaceutical interventions are an effective strategy to prevent and control COVID-19 transmission in the community. However, the timing and stringency to which these measures have been implemented varied between countries and regions. The differences in stringency can only to a limited extent be explained by the number of infections and the prevailing vaccination strategies. Our study aims to shed more light on the lockdown strategies and to identify the determinants underlying the differences between countries on regional, economic, institutional, and political level. Based on daily panel data for 173 countries and the period from January 2020 to October 2021 we find significant regional differences in lockdown strategies. Further, more prosperous countries implemented milder restrictions but responded more quickly, while poorer countries introduced more stringent measures but had a longer response time. Finally, democratic regimes and stronger manifested institutions alleviated and slowed down the introduction of lockdown measures.
AU - Redlin, Margarete
ID - 33221
JF - Journal of Regulatory Economics
KW - Economics and Econometrics
SN - 0922-680X
TI - Differences in NPI strategies against COVID-19
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - AbstractWe provide a partial equilibrium model wherein AI provides abilities combined with human skills to provide an aggregate intermediate service good. We use the model to find that the extent of automation through AI will be greater if (a) the economy is relatively abundant in sophisticated programs and machine abilities compared to human skills; (b) the economy hosts a relatively large number of AI-providing firms and experts; and (c) the task-specific productivity of AI services is relatively high compared to the task-specific productivity of general labor and labor skills. We also illustrate that the contribution of AI to aggregate productive labor service depends not only on the amount of AI services available but on the endogenous number of automated tasks, the relative productivity of standard and IT-related labor, and the substitutability of tasks. These determinants also affect the income distribution between the two kinds of labor. We derive several empirical implications and identify possible future extensions.
AU - Gries, Thomas
AU - Naudé, Wim
ID - 33220
IS - 1
JF - Journal for Labour Market Research
KW - General Medicine
SN - 2510-5019
TI - Modelling artificial intelligence in economics
VL - 56
ER -
TY - JOUR
AU - Gries, Thomas
AU - Müller, Veronika
AU - Jost, John T.
ID - 33219
IS - 2
JF - Psychological Inquiry
KW - General Psychology
SN - 1047-840X
TI - The Market for Belief Systems: A Formal Model of Ideological Choice
VL - 33
ER -