TY - JOUR AB - We propose an indicator for detecting anomalous stock market valuation in real time such that market participants receive timely signals so as to be able to take stabilizing action. Unlike existing approaches, our anomaly indicator introduces three methodological novelties. First, we use an endogenous, purely data-driven, nonparametric trend identification method to separate long-term market movements from more short-term ones. Second, we apply SETAR models that allow for asymmetric expansions and contractions around the long-term trend and find systematic stock price cycles. Third, we implement these findings in our indicator and conduct real-time market forecasts, which have so far been neglected in the literature. Applications of our indicator using monthly S&P 500 stock data from 1970 to the end of 2022 show that short-term anomalous market movements can be identified in real time up to one year ahead. We predict all major anomalies, including the 1987 Bubble and the initial phase of the Financial Crisis that began in 2007. In total, our anomaly indicator identifies more than 80% of all – even minor – anomalous episodes. Thus, smoothing market exaggerations through early signaling seems possible. AU - Fritz, Marlon AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Wiechers, Lukas ID - 50719 JF - Quantitative Finance KW - General Economics KW - Econometrics and Finance KW - Finance SN - 1469-7688 TI - An early indicator for anomalous stock market performance ER - TY - JOUR AB - Individual cognitive functioning declines over time. We seek to understand how adverse physical health shocks in older ages contribute to this development. By use of event-study methods and data from the USA, England, and several countries in Continental Europe, we find evidence that health shocks lead to an immediate and persistent decline in cognitive functioning. This robust finding holds in all regions representing different health insurance systems and seems to be independent of underlying individual demographic characteristics such as sex and age. We also ask whether variables that are susceptible to policy action can reduce the negative consequences of a health shock. Our results suggest that neither compulsory education nor retirement regulations moderate the effects, thus emphasizing the importance for cognitive functioning of maintaining good physical health in old age. AU - Schiele, Valentin AU - Schmitz, Hendrik ID - 35637 JF - European Economic Review TI - Understanding cognitive decline in older ages: The role of health shocks VL - 151 ER - TY - JOUR AB - We propose a new method to estimate and isolate the localization of knowledge spillovers due to the physical presence of a person, using after-application but pre-grant deaths of differently located coinventors of the same patent. The approach estimates the differences in local citations between the deceased and still-living inventors at increasingly distant radii. Patents receive 26 percent fewer citations from within a radius of 20 miles around the deceased, relative to still-living coinventors. Differences attenuate with time and distance, are stronger when still-living coinventors live farther from the deceased, and hold for a subsample of possibly premature deaths. (JEL O31, O33, O34, R32) AU - Balsmeier, Benjamin AU - Fleming, Lee AU - Lück, Sonja ID - 42638 IS - 1 JF - American Economic Review: Insights KW - Management KW - Monitoring KW - Policy and Law KW - Geography KW - Planning and Development SN - 2640-205X TI - Isolating Personal Knowledge Spillovers: Coinventor Deaths and Spatial Citation Differentials VL - 5 ER - TY - JOUR AB - We study how competition between physicians affects the provision of medical care. In our theoretical model, physicians are faced with a heterogeneous patient population, in which patients systematically vary with regard to both their responsiveness to the provided quality of care and their state of health. We test the behavioral predictions derived from this model in a controlled laboratory experiment. In line with the model, we observe that competition significantly improves patient benefits as long as patients are able to respond to the quality provided. For those patients, who are not able to choose a physician, competition even decreases the patient benefit compared to a situation without competition. This decrease is in contrast to our theoretical prediction implying no change in benefits for passive patients. Deviations from patient-optimal treatment are highest for passive patients in need of a low quantity of medical services. With repetition, both, the positive effects of competition for active patients as well as the negative effects of competition for passive patients become more pronounced. Our results imply that competition can not only improve but also worsen patient outcome and that patients’ responsiveness to quality is decisive. AU - Brosig-Koch, Jeannette AU - Hehenkamp, Burkhard AU - Kokot, Johanna ID - 44092 JF - Health Economics KW - physician competition KW - patient characteristics KW - heterogeneity in quality responses KW - fee-for-service KW - laboratory experiment TI - Who benefits from quality competition in health care? A theory and a laboratory experiment on the relevance of patient characteristics ER - TY - JOUR AB - Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) enables researchers in international management to better understand how the impact of a single explanatory factor depends on the context of other factors. But the analytical toolbox of QCA does not include a parameter for the explanatory power of a single explanatory factor or “condition”. In this paper, we therefore reinterpret the Banzhaf power index, originally developed in cooperative game theory, to establish a goodness-of-fit parameter in QCA. The relative Banzhaf index we suggest measures the explanatory power of one condition averaged across all sufficient combinations of conditions. The paper argues that the index is especially informative in three situations that are all salient in international management and call for a context-sensitive analysis of single conditions, namely substantial limited diversity in the data, the emergence of strong INUS conditions in the analysis, and theorizing with contingency factors. The paper derives the properties of the relative Banzhaf index in QCA, demonstrates how the index can be computed easily from a rudimentary truth table, and explores its insights by revisiting selected papers in international management that apply fuzzy-set QCA. It finally suggests a three-step procedure for utilizing the relative Banzhaf index when the causal structure involves both contingency effects and configurational causation. AU - Haake, Claus-Jochen AU - Schneider, Martin ID - 34114 JF - Journal of International Management KW - Qualitative comparative analysis KW - Banzhaf power index KW - causality KW - explanatory power TI - Playing games with QCA: Measuring the explanatory power of single conditions with the Banzhaf index ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hoyer, Britta AU - van Straaten, Dirk ID - 30341 JF - Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics KW - General Social Sciences KW - Economics and Econometrics KW - Applied Psychology SN - 2214-8043 TI - Anonymity and Self-Expression in Online Rating Systems - An Experimental Analysis VL - 98 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hoyer, Britta AU - De Jaegher, Kris ID - 31881 JF - International Journal of Game Theory TI - Network Disruption and the Common-Enemy Effect ER - TY - JOUR AB - AbstractNon-pharmaceutical interventions are an effective strategy to prevent and control COVID-19 transmission in the community. However, the timing and stringency to which these measures have been implemented varied between countries and regions. The differences in stringency can only to a limited extent be explained by the number of infections and the prevailing vaccination strategies. Our study aims to shed more light on the lockdown strategies and to identify the determinants underlying the differences between countries on regional, economic, institutional, and political level. Based on daily panel data for 173 countries and the period from January 2020 to October 2021 we find significant regional differences in lockdown strategies. Further, more prosperous countries implemented milder restrictions but responded more quickly, while poorer countries introduced more stringent measures but had a longer response time. Finally, democratic regimes and stronger manifested institutions alleviated and slowed down the introduction of lockdown measures. AU - Redlin, Margarete ID - 33221 JF - Journal of Regulatory Economics KW - Economics and Econometrics SN - 0922-680X TI - Differences in NPI strategies against COVID-19 ER - TY - JOUR AB - AbstractWe provide a partial equilibrium model wherein AI provides abilities combined with human skills to provide an aggregate intermediate service good. We use the model to find that the extent of automation through AI will be greater if (a) the economy is relatively abundant in sophisticated programs and machine abilities compared to human skills; (b) the economy hosts a relatively large number of AI-providing firms and experts; and (c) the task-specific productivity of AI services is relatively high compared to the task-specific productivity of general labor and labor skills. We also illustrate that the contribution of AI to aggregate productive labor service depends not only on the amount of AI services available but on the endogenous number of automated tasks, the relative productivity of standard and IT-related labor, and the substitutability of tasks. These determinants also affect the income distribution between the two kinds of labor. We derive several empirical implications and identify possible future extensions. AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Naudé, Wim ID - 33220 IS - 1 JF - Journal for Labour Market Research KW - General Medicine SN - 2510-5019 TI - Modelling artificial intelligence in economics VL - 56 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Müller, Veronika AU - Jost, John T. ID - 33219 IS - 2 JF - Psychological Inquiry KW - General Psychology SN - 1047-840X TI - The Market for Belief Systems: A Formal Model of Ideological Choice VL - 33 ER - TY - JOUR AB - We analyse the two-dimensional Nash bargaining solution (NBS) by deploying the standard labour market negotiations model of McDonald and Solow (1981). We show that the two-dimensional bargaining problem can be decomposed into two one-dimensional problems, such that the two solutions together replicate the solution of the two-dimensional problem if the NBS is applied. The axiom of Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives is shown to be crucial for this type of decomposability. This result has significant implications for actual negotiations because it allows for the decomposition of a multi-dimensional bargaining problem into one-dimensional problems---and thus helps to facilitate real-world negotiations. AU - Haake, Claus-Jochen AU - Upmann, Thorsten AU - Duman, Papatya ID - 30940 IS - 2 JF - Scandinavian Journal of Economics KW - Labour market negotiations KW - efficient bargains KW - Nash bargaining solution KW - sequential bargaining KW - restricted bargaining games TI - Wage Bargaining and Employment Revisited: Separability and Efficiency in Collective Bargaining VL - 125 ER - TY - JOUR AB - We study the effect of unemployment on cognitive abilities among individuals aged between 50 and 65 in Europe. To this end, we exploit plant closures and use flexible event-study estimations together with an experimentally elicited measure of fluid intelligence, namely word recall. We find that, within a time period of around eight years after the event of unemployment, cognitive abilities only deteriorate marginally — the effects are insignificant both in statistical and economic terms. We do, however, find significant effects of late-career unemployment on the likelihood to leave the labor force, and short-term effects on mental health problems such as depression and sleep problems. AU - Freise, Diana AU - Schmitz, Hendrik AU - Westphal, Matthias ID - 33458 JF - Journal of Health Economics TI - Late-Career Unemployment and Cognitive Abilities VL - 86 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Westphal, Matthias AU - Kamhöfer, Daniel A. AU - Schmitz, Hendrik ID - 30235 IS - 646 JF - Economic Journal TI - Marginal College Wage Premium under Selection into Employment VL - 132 ER - TY - JOUR AB - In this paper, we analyze the effect of light conditions on road accidents and estimate the long run consequences of different time regimes for road safety. Identification is based on variation in light conditions induced by differences in sunrise and sunset times across space and time. We estimate that darkness causes annual costs of more than £500 million in Great Britain. By setting daylight saving time year-round 8 percent of these costs could be saved. Thus, focusing solely on the short run costs related to the transition itself underestimates the total costs of the current time regime. AU - Bünnings, Christian AU - Schiele, Valentin ID - 15073 IS - 1 JF - The Review of Economics and Statistics SN - 0034-6535 TI - Spring Forward, Don't Fall Back: The Effect of Daylight Saving Time on Road Safety VL - 103 ER - TY - JOUR AB - AbstractIn this article we combine Debreu’s (Proc Natl Acad Sci 38(10):886–893, 1952) social system with Hurwicz’s (Econ Design 1(1):1–14, 1994; Am Econ Rev 98(3):577–585, 2008) ideas of embedding a “desired” game form into a “natural” game form that includes all feasible behavior, even if it is “illegal” according to the desired form. For the resulting socio-legal system we extend Debreu’s concepts of a social system and its social equilibria to a socio-legal system with its Debreu–Hurwicz equilibria. We build on a more general version of social equilibrium due to Shafer and Sonnenschein (J Math Econ 2(3):345–348, 1975) that also generalizes the dc-mechanism of Koray and Yildiz (J Econ Theory 176:479–502, 2018) which relates implementation via mechanisms with implementation via rights structures as introduced by Sertel (Designing rights: invisible hand theorems, covering and membership. Tech. rep. Mimeo, Bogazici University, 2001). In the second part we apply and illustrate these new concepts via an application in the narrow welfarist framework of two person cooperative bargaining. There we provide in a socio-legal system based on Nash’s demand game an implementation of the Nash bargaining solution in Debreu–Hurwicz equilibrium. AU - Haake, Claus-Jochen AU - Trockel, Walter ID - 29152 JF - Review of Economic Design SN - 1434-4742 TI - Socio-legal systems and implementation of the Nash solution in Debreu–Hurwicz equilibrium ER - TY - JOUR AB - AbstractUsing data from the German Socio-Economic Panel for 1984–2018, we analyze the intergenerational education mobility of immigrants in Germany by identifying the determinants of differences in educational stocks for first- and second-generation immigrants in comparison to individuals without a migration background. Our results show that on average, first-generation immigrants have fewer years of schooling than native-born Germans and have a disproportionate share of lower educational qualifications. This gap is strongly driven by age at immigration, with immigration age and education revealing a nonlinear relationship. While the gap is relatively small among individuals who migrate at a young age, integrating in the school system at secondary school age leads to large disadvantages. Examining the educational mobility of immigrants in Germany, we identify an inter-generational catch-up in education. The gap in education between immigrants and natives is reduced for the second generation. Finally, we find that country of origin differences can account for much of the education gap. While immigrants with an ethnic background closer to the German language and culture show the best education outcomes, immigrants from Turkey, Italy, and other southern European countries and especially the group of war refugees from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and other MENA countries, have the lowest educational attainment. AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Redlin, Margarete AU - Zehra, Moonum ID - 22715 JF - Journal of International Migration and Integration SN - 1488-3473 TI - Educational Assimilation of First-Generation and Second-Generation Immigrants in Germany ER - TY - JOUR AB - AbstractUsing time series data for the period 1959–2015, our empirical analysis examines the simultaneous effects of the individual components of the global carbon budget on temperature. Specifically, we explore the possible effects of carbon emissions caused by fossil fuel combustion, cement production, land-use change emissions, and carbon sinks (here in terms of land sink and ocean sink) on climate change. The simultaneous inclusion of carbon emissions and carbon sinks allows us to look at the coexistent and opposing effects of the individual components of the carbon budget and thus provides a holistic perspective from which to explore the relationship between the global carbon budget and global warming. The results reveal a significant positive effect of carbon emissions on temperature for both fossil fuels emissions and emissions from land-use change, confirming previous results concerning carbon dioxide and temperature. Further, while ocean sink does not seem to have a significant effect, we identify a temperature-decreasing effect for land sink. AU - Redlin, Margarete AU - Gries, Thomas ID - 23594 JF - Theoretical and Applied Climatology SN - 0177-798X TI - Anthropogenic climate change: the impact of the global carbon budget ER - TY - JOUR AB - I study a dynamic variant of the Dixit–Stiglitz (Am Econ Rev 67(3), 1977) model of monopolistic competition by introducing price stickiness à la Fershtman and Kamien (Econometrica 55(5), 1987). The analysis is restricted to bounded quantity and price paths that fulfill the necessary conditions for an open-loop Nash equilibrium. I show that there exists a symmetric steady state and that its stability depends on the degree of product differentiation. When moving from complements to perfect substitutes, the steady state is either a locally asymptotically unstable (spiral) source, a stable (spiral) sink or a saddle point. I further apply the Hopf bifurcation theorem and prove the existence of limit cycles, when passing from a stable to an unstable steady state. Lastly, I provide a numerical example and show that there exists a stable limit cycle. AU - Hoof, Simon ID - 45640 IS - 2 JF - Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications SN - 1573-2878 TI - Dynamic Monopolistic Competition VL - 189 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Feng, Yuanhua AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Fritz, Marlon ID - 17072 JF - Journal of Nonparametric Statistics SN - 1048-5252 TI - Data-driven local polynomial for the trend and its derivatives in economic time series ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Grundmann, Rainer ID - 17074 JF - Review of Development Economics SN - 1363-6669 TI - Modern sector development: The role of exports and institutions in developing countries ER -