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","lang":"eng"}],"publication":"Applied Financial Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking C)","issue":"11","doi":"10.1080/09603107.2013.786161","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"main_file_link":[{"url":"https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09603107.2013.786161#.VE5YmBZwmAd"}],"article_type":"original","intvolume":"        23","publication_status":"published","date_updated":"2026-04-09T08:04:59Z","author":[{"last_name":"Kreutzmann","first_name":"Daniel","full_name":"Kreutzmann, Daniel"},{"first_name":"Sönke","last_name":"Sievers","full_name":"Sievers, Sönke","id":"46447"},{"full_name":"Mueller, Christian","last_name":"Mueller","first_name":"Christian"}],"year":"2013","title":"Investment distortions and the value of the government's tax claim","citation":{"short":"D. Kreutzmann, S. Sievers, C. Mueller, Applied Financial Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking C) 23 (2013) 977–989.","chicago":"Kreutzmann, Daniel, Sönke Sievers, and Christian Mueller. “Investment Distortions and the Value of the Government’s Tax Claim.” <i>Applied Financial Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking C)</i> 23, no. 11 (2013): 977–89. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1080/09603107.2013.786161\">https://doi.org/10.1080/09603107.2013.786161</a>.","ieee":"D. Kreutzmann, S. Sievers, and C. Mueller, “Investment distortions and the value of the government’s tax claim,” <i>Applied Financial Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking C)</i>, vol. 23, no. 11, pp. 977–989, 2013, doi: <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1080/09603107.2013.786161\">10.1080/09603107.2013.786161</a>.","apa":"Kreutzmann, D., Sievers, S., &#38; Mueller, C. (2013). Investment distortions and the value of the government’s tax claim. <i>Applied Financial Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking C)</i>, <i>23</i>(11), 977–989. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1080/09603107.2013.786161\">https://doi.org/10.1080/09603107.2013.786161</a>","bibtex":"@article{Kreutzmann_Sievers_Mueller_2013, title={Investment distortions and the value of the government’s tax claim}, volume={23}, DOI={<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1080/09603107.2013.786161\">10.1080/09603107.2013.786161</a>}, number={11}, journal={Applied Financial Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking C)}, publisher={Taylor \\&#38; Francis}, author={Kreutzmann, Daniel and Sievers, Sönke and Mueller, Christian}, year={2013}, pages={977–989} }","ama":"Kreutzmann D, Sievers S, Mueller C. Investment distortions and the value of the government’s tax claim. <i>Applied Financial Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking C)</i>. 2013;23(11):977-989. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1080/09603107.2013.786161\">10.1080/09603107.2013.786161</a>","mla":"Kreutzmann, Daniel, et al. “Investment Distortions and the Value of the Government’s Tax Claim.” <i>Applied Financial Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking C)</i>, vol. 23, no. 11, Taylor \\&#38; Francis, 2013, pp. 977–89, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1080/09603107.2013.786161\">10.1080/09603107.2013.786161</a>."},"volume":23,"user_id":"115848","publisher":"Taylor \\& Francis","_id":"5108","page":"977-989","jel":["G31","G32","H21","H25"],"status":"public"},{"citation":{"mla":"Betz, Stefan. “Entscheidungsorientierte Planung unscharfer Erfolge von KMU in Supply Chains.” <i>Entscheidungsprobleme im Supply Chain Management - Quantitative Lösungsansätze für den Mittelstand</i>, edited by Stefan Betz, 2nd ed., 2012, pp. 49–72.","ama":"Betz S. Entscheidungsorientierte Planung unscharfer Erfolge von KMU in Supply Chains. In: Betz S, ed. <i>Entscheidungsprobleme im Supply Chain Management - Quantitative Lösungsansätze für den Mittelstand</i>. 2nd ed. Hamburg; 2012:49-72.","bibtex":"@inbook{Betz_2012, place={Hamburg}, edition={2}, title={Entscheidungsorientierte Planung unscharfer Erfolge von KMU in Supply Chains}, booktitle={Entscheidungsprobleme im Supply Chain Management - Quantitative Lösungsansätze für den Mittelstand}, author={Betz, Stefan}, editor={Betz, StefanEditor}, year={2012}, pages={49–72} }","apa":"Betz, S. (2012). Entscheidungsorientierte Planung unscharfer Erfolge von KMU in Supply Chains. In S. Betz (Ed.), <i>Entscheidungsprobleme im Supply Chain Management - Quantitative Lösungsansätze für den Mittelstand</i> (2nd ed., pp. 49–72). Hamburg.","ieee":"S. Betz, “Entscheidungsorientierte Planung unscharfer Erfolge von KMU in Supply Chains,” in <i>Entscheidungsprobleme im Supply Chain Management - Quantitative Lösungsansätze für den Mittelstand</i>, 2nd ed., S. Betz, Ed. Hamburg, 2012, pp. 49–72.","chicago":"Betz, Stefan. “Entscheidungsorientierte Planung unscharfer Erfolge von KMU in Supply Chains.” In <i>Entscheidungsprobleme im Supply Chain Management - Quantitative Lösungsansätze für den Mittelstand</i>, edited by Stefan Betz, 2nd ed., 49–72. Hamburg, 2012.","short":"S. Betz, in: S. Betz (Ed.), Entscheidungsprobleme im Supply Chain Management - Quantitative Lösungsansätze für den Mittelstand, 2nd ed., Hamburg, 2012, pp. 49–72."},"publication":"Entscheidungsprobleme im Supply Chain Management - Quantitative Lösungsansätze für den Mittelstand","department":[{"_id":"193"}],"type":"book_chapter","place":"Hamburg","date_created":"2018-05-03T12:05:08Z","date_updated":"2022-01-06T06:57:16Z","publication_status":"published","author":[{"id":"54","full_name":"Betz, Stefan","last_name":"Betz","first_name":"Stefan"}],"title":"Entscheidungsorientierte Planung unscharfer Erfolge von KMU in Supply Chains","year":"2012","status":"public","editor":[{"first_name":"Stefan","last_name":"Betz","full_name":"Betz, Stefan"}],"user_id":"21811","edition":"2","_id":"2608","language":[{"iso":"ger"}],"page":"49-72"},{"editor":[{"full_name":"Betz, Stefan","last_name":"Betz","first_name":"Stefan"}],"user_id":"21811","language":[{"iso":"ger"}],"_id":"2609","edition":"2","page":"105-132","date_updated":"2022-01-06T06:57:16Z","publication_status":"published","author":[{"full_name":"Betz, Stefan","first_name":"Stefan","last_name":"Betz","id":"54"}],"title":"Analyse des Bullwhip-Effekts in einer Supply Chain von KMU","year":"2012","status":"public","department":[{"_id":"193"}],"type":"book_chapter","place":"Hamburg","date_created":"2018-05-03T12:07:35Z","citation":{"short":"S. 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Hamburg, 2012."},"department":[{"_id":"193"}],"type":"book_editor","date_created":"2018-05-07T13:10:59Z","place":"Hamburg"},{"doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2100501","user_id":"46447","page":"31","main_file_link":[{"url":"https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2100501"}],"_id":"20870","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"date_updated":"2022-01-06T06:54:41Z","publication_status":"published","status":"public","title":"The Relevance of Biases in Management Forecasts for Failure Prediction in Venture Capital Investments","year":"2012","jel":["G24","G32","M13","M41"],"author":[{"first_name":"Sönke","last_name":"Sievers","full_name":"Sievers, Sönke","id":"46447"},{"full_name":"Mokwa, Christopher Frederik","last_name":"Mokwa","first_name":"Christopher Frederik"}],"keyword":["Management forecast biases","cross-sectional projection models","venture-backed start-ups","failure prediction","overoptimism","overconfidence"],"type":"working_paper","department":[{"_id":"275"}],"date_created":"2021-01-05T11:59:50Z","abstract":[{"text":"This study shows how venture capital investors can identify potential biases in multi-year management forecasts before an investment decision and derive significantly more accurate failure predictions. By advancing a cross-sectional projection method developed by prior research and using firm-specific information in financial statements and business plans, we derive benchmarks for management revenue forecasts. With these benchmarks, we estimate forecast errors as an a priori measure of biased expectations. Using this measure for our proprietary dataset on venture-backed start-ups in Germany, we find evidence of substantial upward forecast biases. We uncover that firms with large forecast errors fail significantly more often than do less biased entrepreneurs in years following the investment. Overall, our results highlight the implications of excessive optimism and overconfidence in entrepreneurial environments and emphasize the relevance of accounting information and business plans for venture capital investment decisions.","lang":"eng"}],"extern":"1","citation":{"ieee":"S. Sievers and C. F. 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Hegemann, Besteuerung von Beteiligungsinvestitionen und Risikoempfindlichkeit – Wie wirkt die Abgeltungssteuer?, 2012.","ieee":"A. Hegemann, <i>Besteuerung von Beteiligungsinvestitionen und Risikoempfindlichkeit – Wie wirkt die Abgeltungssteuer?</i>, vol. 140. 2012.","apa":"Hegemann, A. (2012). <i>Besteuerung von Beteiligungsinvestitionen und Risikoempfindlichkeit – Wie wirkt die Abgeltungssteuer?</i> (Vol. 140)."},"department":[{"_id":"187"}],"type":"working_paper","date_created":"2018-10-30T14:05:45Z","intvolume":"       140","date_updated":"2022-01-06T07:01:36Z","author":[{"last_name":"Hegemann","first_name":"Annika","full_name":"Hegemann, Annika"}],"status":"public","title":"Besteuerung von Beteiligungsinvestitionen und Risikoempfindlichkeit – Wie wirkt die Abgeltungssteuer?","year":"2012","volume":140,"user_id":"21222","_id":"5051","language":[{"iso":"ger"}],"series_title":"arqus, Quantitative Research in Taxation"},{"user_id":"21222","volume":134,"_id":"5055","series_title":"arqus, Quantitative Research in Taxation","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"date_updated":"2022-01-06T07:01:36Z","intvolume":"       134","year":"2012","title":"Asymmetric Taxation of Profits and Losses and Its Influence on Investment Timing: Paradoxical Effects of Tax Increases","status":"public","author":[{"full_name":"Mehrmann, Annika","last_name":"Mehrmann","first_name":"Annika","id":"4324"},{"full_name":"Schneider, Georg","first_name":"Georg","last_name":"Schneider"},{"full_name":"Sureth-Sloane, Caren","last_name":"Sureth-Sloane","first_name":"Caren"}],"type":"working_paper","department":[{"_id":"187"}],"date_created":"2018-10-30T14:08:46Z","citation":{"chicago":"Mehrmann, Annika, Georg Schneider, and Caren Sureth-Sloane. <i>Asymmetric Taxation of Profits and Losses and Its Influence on Investment Timing: Paradoxical Effects of Tax Increases</i>. 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Unternehmensführung in Europa - Interkulturelle Fragen,” <i>Wirtschaft und Beruf</i>, vol. 64, no. 7–8, pp. 49–51, 2012.","apa":"Sureth-Sloane, C. (2012). Unternehmensführung und interkulturelle Hochschulbildung. Unternehmensführung in Europa - Interkulturelle Fragen. <i>Wirtschaft und Beruf</i>, <i>64</i>(7–8), 49–51.","short":"C. Sureth-Sloane, Wirtschaft und Beruf 64 (2012) 49–51.","chicago":"Sureth-Sloane, Caren. “Unternehmensführung und interkulturelle Hochschulbildung. Unternehmensführung in Europa - Interkulturelle Fragen.” <i>Wirtschaft und Beruf</i> 64, no. 7–8 (2012): 49–51.","mla":"Sureth-Sloane, Caren. “Unternehmensführung und interkulturelle Hochschulbildung. Unternehmensführung in Europa - Interkulturelle Fragen.” <i>Wirtschaft und Beruf</i>, vol. 64, no. 7–8, 2012, pp. 49–51.","bibtex":"@article{Sureth-Sloane_2012, title={Unternehmensführung und interkulturelle Hochschulbildung. Unternehmensführung in Europa - Interkulturelle Fragen}, volume={64}, number={7–8}, journal={Wirtschaft und Beruf}, author={Sureth-Sloane, Caren}, year={2012}, pages={49–51} }","ama":"Sureth-Sloane C. Unternehmensführung und interkulturelle Hochschulbildung. Unternehmensführung in Europa - Interkulturelle Fragen. <i>Wirtschaft und Beruf</i>. 2012;64(7-8):49-51."},"type":"journal_article","department":[{"_id":"187"},{"_id":"635"}],"date_created":"2018-10-30T14:18:23Z","date_updated":"2022-01-06T07:01:36Z","intvolume":"        64","title":"Unternehmensführung und interkulturelle Hochschulbildung. Unternehmensführung in Europa - Interkulturelle Fragen","year":"2012","status":"public","author":[{"id":"530","last_name":"Sureth-Sloane","first_name":"Caren","full_name":"Sureth-Sloane, Caren"}],"user_id":"61801","volume":64,"page":"49-51","language":[{"iso":"ger"}],"_id":"5063"},{"place":"Wiesbaden","date_created":"2018-10-30T14:21:00Z","type":"book_chapter","department":[{"_id":"187"}],"publication":"Der Verband der Hochschullehrer für Betriebswirtschaft, Geschichte des VHB und Geschichten zum VHB","citation":{"apa":"Sureth-Sloane, C. (2012). Vorwort. Geschichte des VHB und der BWL: Rückblick und Einblicke. In W. Burr &#38; A. Wagenhofer (Eds.), <i>Der Verband der Hochschullehrer für Betriebswirtschaft, Geschichte des VHB und Geschichten zum VHB</i>. Wiesbaden: Gabler Verlag.","ieee":"C. Sureth-Sloane, “Vorwort. Geschichte des VHB und der BWL: Rückblick und Einblicke,” in <i>Der Verband der Hochschullehrer für Betriebswirtschaft, Geschichte des VHB und Geschichten zum VHB</i>, W. Burr and A. Wagenhofer, Eds. Wiesbaden: Gabler Verlag, 2012.","chicago":"Sureth-Sloane, Caren. “Vorwort. Geschichte des VHB und der BWL: Rückblick und Einblicke.” In <i>Der Verband der Hochschullehrer für Betriebswirtschaft, Geschichte des VHB und Geschichten zum VHB</i>, edited by Wolfgang Burr and Alfred Wagenhofer. V-VII. Wiesbaden: Gabler Verlag, 2012.","short":"C. Sureth-Sloane, in: W. Burr, A. Wagenhofer (Eds.), Der Verband der Hochschullehrer für Betriebswirtschaft, Geschichte des VHB und Geschichten zum VHB, Gabler Verlag, Wiesbaden, 2012.","mla":"Sureth-Sloane, Caren. “Vorwort. Geschichte des VHB und der BWL: Rückblick und Einblicke.” <i>Der Verband der Hochschullehrer für Betriebswirtschaft, Geschichte des VHB und Geschichten zum VHB</i>, edited by Wolfgang Burr and Alfred Wagenhofer, Gabler Verlag, 2012.","ama":"Sureth-Sloane C. Vorwort. Geschichte des VHB und der BWL: Rückblick und Einblicke. In: Burr W, Wagenhofer A, eds. <i>Der Verband der Hochschullehrer für Betriebswirtschaft, Geschichte des VHB und Geschichten zum VHB</i>. V-VII. Wiesbaden: Gabler Verlag; 2012.","bibtex":"@inbook{Sureth-Sloane_2012, place={Wiesbaden}, series={V-VII}, title={Vorwort. Geschichte des VHB und der BWL: Rückblick und Einblicke}, booktitle={Der Verband der Hochschullehrer für Betriebswirtschaft, Geschichte des VHB und Geschichten zum VHB}, publisher={Gabler Verlag}, author={Sureth-Sloane, Caren}, editor={Burr, Wolfgang and Wagenhofer, AlfredEditors}, year={2012}, collection={V-VII} }"},"_id":"5066","language":[{"iso":"ger"}],"series_title":"V-VII","publisher":"Gabler Verlag","user_id":"21222","editor":[{"full_name":"Burr, Wolfgang","last_name":"Burr","first_name":"Wolfgang"},{"first_name":"Alfred","last_name":"Wagenhofer","full_name":"Wagenhofer, Alfred"}],"title":"Vorwort. Geschichte des VHB und der BWL: Rückblick und Einblicke","status":"public","year":"2012","author":[{"last_name":"Sureth-Sloane","first_name":"Caren","full_name":"Sureth-Sloane, Caren","id":"530"}],"date_updated":"2022-01-06T07:01:36Z"},{"type":"newspaper_article","department":[{"_id":"187"}],"date_created":"2018-10-30T14:22:35Z","publication":"Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung","issue":"276","citation":{"mla":"Sureth-Sloane, Caren, and Dodo zu Knyphausen-Aufseß. “Welcher BWLer ist ein guter Forscher?” <i>Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung</i>, no. 276, 2012.","ama":"Sureth-Sloane C, zu Knyphausen-Aufseß D. Welcher BWLer ist ein guter Forscher? <i>Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung</i>. 2012.","bibtex":"@article{Sureth-Sloane_zu Knyphausen-Aufseß_2012, title={Welcher BWLer ist ein guter Forscher?}, number={276}, journal={Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung}, author={Sureth-Sloane, Caren and zu Knyphausen-Aufseß, Dodo}, year={2012} }","apa":"Sureth-Sloane, C., &#38; zu Knyphausen-Aufseß, D. (2012). Welcher BWLer ist ein guter Forscher? <i>Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung</i>.","ieee":"C. Sureth-Sloane and D. zu Knyphausen-Aufseß, “Welcher BWLer ist ein guter Forscher?,” <i>Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung</i>, no. 276, 2012.","chicago":"Sureth-Sloane, Caren, and Dodo zu Knyphausen-Aufseß. “Welcher BWLer ist ein guter Forscher?” <i>Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung</i>, 2012.","short":"C. Sureth-Sloane, D. zu Knyphausen-Aufseß, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (2012)."},"publication_date":"2012-11-26","user_id":"21222","page":"12","language":[{"iso":"ger"}],"_id":"5069","date_updated":"2022-01-06T07:01:36Z","year":"2012","status":"public","title":"Welcher BWLer ist ein guter Forscher?","author":[{"last_name":"Sureth-Sloane","first_name":"Caren","full_name":"Sureth-Sloane, Caren","id":"530"},{"full_name":"zu Knyphausen-Aufseß, Dodo","first_name":"Dodo","last_name":"zu Knyphausen-Aufseß"}]},{"user_id":"46447","volume":26,"page":"405-428","_id":"5193","publisher":"Springer","status":"public","jel":["G11","G12","G17","G24"],"citation":{"chicago":"Kanne, Stefan, Jan Klobucnik, Daniel Kreutzmann, and Sönke Sievers. “To Buy or Not to Buy? The Value of Contradictory Analyst Signals.” <i>Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C)</i> 26, no. 4 (2012): 405–28. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z\">https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z</a>.","ama":"Kanne S, Klobucnik J, Kreutzmann D, Sievers S. To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals. <i>Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C)</i>. 2012;26(4):405-428. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z\">10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z</a>","short":"S. Kanne, J. Klobucnik, D. Kreutzmann, S. Sievers, Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C) 26 (2012) 405–428.","bibtex":"@article{Kanne_Klobucnik_Kreutzmann_Sievers_2012, title={To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals}, volume={26}, DOI={<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z\">10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z</a>}, number={4}, journal={Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C)}, publisher={Springer}, author={Kanne, Stefan and Klobucnik, Jan and Kreutzmann, Daniel and Sievers, Sönke}, year={2012}, pages={405–428} }","apa":"Kanne, S., Klobucnik, J., Kreutzmann, D., &#38; Sievers, S. (2012). To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals. <i>Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C)</i>, <i>26</i>(4), 405–428. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z\">https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z</a>","mla":"Kanne, Stefan, et al. “To Buy or Not to Buy? The Value of Contradictory Analyst Signals.” <i>Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C)</i>, vol. 26, no. 4, Springer, 2012, pp. 405–28, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z\">10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z</a>.","ieee":"S. Kanne, J. Klobucnik, D. Kreutzmann, and S. Sievers, “To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals,” <i>Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C)</i>, vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 405–428, 2012."},"doi":"10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z","main_file_link":[{"url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z"}],"language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"publication_status":"published","date_updated":"2022-01-06T07:01:43Z","article_type":"original","intvolume":"        26","title":"To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals","year":"2012","author":[{"first_name":"Stefan","last_name":"Kanne","full_name":"Kanne, Stefan"},{"full_name":"Klobucnik, Jan","first_name":"Jan","last_name":"Klobucnik"},{"last_name":"Kreutzmann","first_name":"Daniel","full_name":"Kreutzmann, Daniel"},{"first_name":"Sönke","last_name":"Sievers","full_name":"Sievers, Sönke","id":"46447"}],"keyword":["Analyst recommendation","Target price","Stock performance","Trading strategy"],"type":"journal_article","department":[{"_id":"275"}],"date_created":"2018-10-31T11:34:44Z","extern":"1","abstract":[{"lang":"eng","text":"We study the predictive ability of individual analyst target price changes for post-event abnormal stock returns within each recommendation category. Although prior studies generally demonstrate the investment value of target prices, we find that target price changes do not cause abnormal returns within each recommendation level. Instead, contradictory analyst signals (e.g., strong buy reiterations with large target price decreases) neutralize each other, whereas confirmatory signals reinforce each other. Further, our analysis reveals that large target price downgrades can be explained by preceding stock price decreases. However, upgrades are not preceded by stock price increases, thereby demonstrating asymmetric analyst behavior when adjusting target prices to stock prices. Our results suggest that investors should treat recommendations with caution when they are issued with large contradictory target price changes. Thus, instead of blindly following a recommendation, investors might put more weight on the change in the corresponding target price and consider transaction costs."}],"publication":"Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C)","issue":"4"},{"citation":{"bibtex":"@article{Mokwa_Sievers_2012, title={The Relevance of Biases in Management Forecasts for Failure Prediction in Venture Capital Investments}, DOI={<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2100501\">10.2139/ssrn.2100501</a>}, journal={SSRN Electronic Journal}, author={Mokwa, Christopher Frederik and Sievers, Sönke}, year={2012} }","ama":"Mokwa CF, Sievers S. The Relevance of Biases in Management Forecasts for Failure Prediction in Venture Capital Investments. <i>SSRN Electronic Journal</i>. 2012. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2100501\">10.2139/ssrn.2100501</a>","mla":"Mokwa, Christopher Frederik, and Sönke Sievers. “The Relevance of Biases in Management Forecasts for Failure Prediction in Venture Capital Investments.” <i>SSRN Electronic Journal</i>, 2012, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2100501\">10.2139/ssrn.2100501</a>.","chicago":"Mokwa, Christopher Frederik, and Sönke Sievers. “The Relevance of Biases in Management Forecasts for Failure Prediction in Venture Capital Investments.” <i>SSRN Electronic Journal</i>, 2012. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2100501\">https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2100501</a>.","short":"C.F. Mokwa, S. Sievers, SSRN Electronic Journal (2012).","ieee":"C. F. Mokwa and S. Sievers, “The Relevance of Biases in Management Forecasts for Failure Prediction in Venture Capital Investments,” <i>SSRN Electronic Journal</i>, 2012.","apa":"Mokwa, C. F., &#38; Sievers, S. (2012). The Relevance of Biases in Management Forecasts for Failure Prediction in Venture Capital Investments. <i>SSRN Electronic Journal</i>. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2100501\">https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2100501</a>"},"publication":"SSRN Electronic Journal","abstract":[{"lang":"eng","text":"This study shows how venture capital investors can identify potential biases in multi-year management forecasts before an investment decision and derive significantly more accurate failure predictions. By advancing a cross-sectional projection method developed by prior research and using firm-specific information in financial statements and business plans, we derive benchmarks for management revenue forecasts. With these benchmarks, we estimate forecast errors as an a priori measure of biased expectations. Using this measure for our proprietary dataset on venture-backed start-ups in Germany, we find evidence of substantial upward forecast biases. We uncover that firms with large forecast errors fail significantly more often than do less biased entrepreneurs in years following the investment. Overall, our results highlight the implications of excessive optimism and overconfidence in entrepreneurial environments and emphasize the relevance of accounting information and business plans for venture capital investment decisions. "}],"date_created":"2018-10-31T12:12:28Z","department":[{"_id":"275"}],"type":"journal_article","keyword":["Management forecast biases","cross-sectional projection models","venture-backed start-ups","failure prediction","overoptimism","overconfidence"],"author":[{"first_name":"Christopher Frederik","last_name":"Mokwa","full_name":"Mokwa, Christopher Frederik"},{"full_name":"Sievers, Sönke","first_name":"Sönke","last_name":"Sievers"}],"jel":["G24","G32","M13","M41"],"title":"The Relevance of Biases in Management Forecasts for Failure Prediction in Venture Capital Investments","status":"public","year":"2012","date_updated":"2022-01-06T07:01:43Z","publication_status":"published","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"_id":"5196","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2100501","user_id":"64756"},{"abstract":[{"lang":"eng","text":"This study provides evidence of significant biases in multi-year management forecasts by analyzing a proprietary dataset on venture-backed start-ups in Germany. We find that revenues and expenses are highly overestimated in each of the investigated one- to five-year-ahead planning periods. Furthermore, entrepreneurs underestimate one-year-ahead profit forecasts but clearly overestimate their profit forecasts for all longer-term forecast horizons. Additional analyses reveal that teams with prior management experience issue even more overestimated forecasts and misrepresent their forward-looking information. In contrast, greater asset verifiability and corporate lead investors are associated with lower levels of forecast errors. All key results hold if bias is either measured by traditionally comparing forecasts to ex-post realizations or by using a cross-sectional projection approach based on historical accounting data developed by prior research. "}],"publication":"SSRN Electronic Journal","citation":{"ieee":"C. Mokwa and S. Sievers, “Biases in Management Forecasts of Venture-Backed Start-Ups: Evidence from Internal Due Diligence Documents of VC Investors,” <i>SSRN Electronic Journal</i>, 2012.","apa":"Mokwa, C., &#38; Sievers, S. (2012). Biases in Management Forecasts of Venture-Backed Start-Ups: Evidence from Internal Due Diligence Documents of VC Investors. <i>SSRN Electronic Journal</i>. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1714399\">https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1714399</a>","mla":"Mokwa, Christopher, and Sönke Sievers. “Biases in Management Forecasts of Venture-Backed Start-Ups: Evidence from Internal Due Diligence Documents of VC Investors.” <i>SSRN Electronic Journal</i>, 2012, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1714399\">10.2139/ssrn.1714399</a>.","bibtex":"@article{Mokwa_Sievers_2012, title={Biases in Management Forecasts of Venture-Backed Start-Ups: Evidence from Internal Due Diligence Documents of VC Investors}, DOI={<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1714399\">10.2139/ssrn.1714399</a>}, journal={SSRN Electronic Journal}, author={Mokwa, Christopher and Sievers, Sönke}, year={2012} }","short":"C. Mokwa, S. Sievers, SSRN Electronic Journal (2012).","ama":"Mokwa C, Sievers S. Biases in Management Forecasts of Venture-Backed Start-Ups: Evidence from Internal Due Diligence Documents of VC Investors. <i>SSRN Electronic Journal</i>. 2012. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1714399\">10.2139/ssrn.1714399</a>","chicago":"Mokwa, Christopher, and Sönke Sievers. “Biases in Management Forecasts of Venture-Backed Start-Ups: Evidence from Internal Due Diligence Documents of VC Investors.” <i>SSRN Electronic Journal</i>, 2012. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1714399\">https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1714399</a>."},"type":"journal_article","keyword":["Management forecasts","Forecasting biases","Venture-backed start-ups","Projection methods"],"department":[{"_id":"275"}],"date_created":"2018-10-31T12:16:45Z","date_updated":"2022-01-06T07:01:43Z","publication_status":"published","status":"public","title":"Biases in Management Forecasts of Venture-Backed Start-Ups: Evidence from Internal Due Diligence Documents of VC Investors","year":"2012","jel":["G24","G32","M13","M41"],"author":[{"last_name":"Mokwa","first_name":"Christopher","full_name":"Mokwa, Christopher"},{"first_name":"Sönke","last_name":"Sievers","full_name":"Sievers, Sönke"}],"doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1714399","user_id":"64756","_id":"5198","language":[{"iso":"eng"}]},{"intvolume":"        52","publication_status":"published","date_updated":"2023-01-10T09:32:07Z","author":[{"first_name":"Tobias C.","last_name":"Michalak","full_name":"Michalak, Tobias C."},{"orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8058-8857","last_name":"Uhde","first_name":"André","full_name":"Uhde, André","id":"36049"}],"year":"2012","title":" Credit risk securitization and bank soundness: Evidence from the microlevel for Europe","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2012.04.008","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"abstract":[{"text":"Using a unique sample of 749 cash and synthetic securitization transactions issued by 60 stock-listed bank holdings in the EU-13 plus Switzerland over the period from 1997 to 2007 this paper provides empirical evidence that credit risk securitization has a negative impact on the issuing banks’ financial soundness. Baseline findings hold even when controlling for likely reverse causality by employing instrumental variable techniques and substituting the accounting-based z-score ratio by market-based indicators of bank risk. Moreover, investigating the relationship between credit risk securitization and single z-score components in order to evaluate significant transmission channels proposed by relevant theoretical literature, we find a negative impact of securitization on bank profitability and capital environment as well as a positive relationship between securitization and the issuing bank's return volatility. Against the background of our empirical results we underline that the decision by the Basel Committee to enhance the new Basel III framework in the field of securitization is a step in the right direction.","lang":"eng"}],"issue":"3","publication":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","department":[{"_id":"186"},{"_id":"188"}],"type":"journal_article","keyword":["Credit risk securitization Bank soundness European banking"],"date_created":"2018-09-14T11:59:26Z","jel":["G21","G28"],"status":"public","volume":52,"user_id":"21810","_id":"4399","page":"272-285","citation":{"ieee":"T. C. Michalak and A. Uhde, “ Credit risk securitization and bank soundness: Evidence from the microlevel for Europe,” <i>Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance</i>, vol. 52, no. 3, pp. 272–285, 2012, doi: <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2012.04.008\">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2012.04.008</a>.","apa":"Michalak, T. C., &#38; Uhde, A. (2012).  Credit risk securitization and bank soundness: Evidence from the microlevel for Europe. <i>Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance</i>, <i>52</i>(3), 272–285. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2012.04.008\">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2012.04.008</a>","chicago":"Michalak, Tobias C., and André Uhde. “ Credit Risk Securitization and Bank Soundness: Evidence from the Microlevel for Europe.” <i>Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance</i> 52, no. 3 (2012): 272–85. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2012.04.008\">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2012.04.008</a>.","short":"T.C. Michalak, A. Uhde, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 52 (2012) 272–285.","mla":"Michalak, Tobias C., and André Uhde. “ Credit Risk Securitization and Bank Soundness: Evidence from the Microlevel for Europe.” <i>Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance</i>, vol. 52, no. 3, 2012, pp. 272–85, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2012.04.008\">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2012.04.008</a>.","bibtex":"@article{Michalak_Uhde_2012, title={ Credit risk securitization and bank soundness: Evidence from the microlevel for Europe}, volume={52}, DOI={<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2012.04.008\">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2012.04.008</a>}, number={3}, journal={Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance}, author={Michalak, Tobias C. and Uhde, André}, year={2012}, pages={272–285} }","ama":"Michalak TC, Uhde A.  Credit risk securitization and bank soundness: Evidence from the microlevel for Europe. <i>Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance</i>. 2012;52(3):272-285. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2012.04.008\">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2012.04.008</a>"}},{"citation":{"apa":"Müller, O., &#38; Uhde, A. (2012). Cross-border bank lending - Empirical evidence on further determinants from OECD banking markets. <i>Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions &#38; Money</i>, <i>23</i>, 136–162. <a href=\"https://doi.org/DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.09.004 \">https://doi.org/DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.09.004 </a>","ieee":"O. Müller and A. Uhde, “Cross-border bank lending - Empirical evidence on further determinants from OECD banking markets,” <i>Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions &#38; Money</i>, vol. 23, pp. 136–162, 2012, doi: <a href=\"https://doi.org/DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.09.004 \">DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.09.004 </a>.","chicago":"Müller, Oliver, and André Uhde. “Cross-Border Bank Lending - Empirical Evidence on Further Determinants from OECD Banking Markets.” <i>Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions &#38; Money</i> 23 (2012): 136–62. <a href=\"https://doi.org/DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.09.004 \">https://doi.org/DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.09.004 </a>.","short":"O. Müller, A. Uhde, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions &#38; Money 23 (2012) 136–162.","mla":"Müller, Oliver, and André Uhde. “Cross-Border Bank Lending - Empirical Evidence on Further Determinants from OECD Banking Markets.” <i>Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions &#38; Money</i>, vol. 23, 2012, pp. 136–62, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.09.004 \">DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.09.004 </a>.","ama":"Müller O, Uhde A. Cross-border bank lending - Empirical evidence on further determinants from OECD banking markets. <i>Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions &#38; Money</i>. 2012;23:136-162. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.09.004 \">DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.09.004 </a>","bibtex":"@article{Müller_Uhde_2012, title={Cross-border bank lending - Empirical evidence on further determinants from OECD banking markets}, volume={23}, DOI={<a href=\"https://doi.org/DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.09.004 \">DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.09.004 </a>}, journal={Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions &#38; Money}, author={Müller, Oliver and Uhde, André}, year={2012}, pages={136–162} }"},"jel":["F","G"],"status":"public","volume":23,"user_id":"21810","_id":"4401","page":"136-162","extern":"1","abstract":[{"text":"Employing data on foreign bank claims from 13 OECD countries on 51 emerging markets between 1993 and 2007, this study investigates specific characteristics of OECD banking markets and lending banks as new important determinants of cross-border lending. We initially provide empirical evidence that in addition to well-accepted “gravity measures”, characteristics of OECD banking markets as well as lending banks’ attributes may describe further important determinants of cross-border bank lending with regard to our sample. Building subsamples of more-developed emerging markets vs. frontier markets, addressing (non) common lender relationships and analyzing cross border lending flows during different time periods, our analysis additionally reveals that both the determinants’ explanatory power and their direction of impact notably vary with respective subsamples.","lang":"eng"}],"publication":"Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money","department":[{"_id":"186"},{"_id":"188"}],"keyword":["Foreign bank claims","Gravity measures","OECD banking markets’ characteristics","Lending banks’ characteristics"],"type":"journal_article","date_created":"2018-09-14T12:32:57Z","intvolume":"        23","publication_status":"published","date_updated":"2023-01-10T09:34:19Z","author":[{"full_name":"Müller, Oliver","first_name":"Oliver","last_name":"Müller"},{"full_name":"Uhde, André","first_name":"André","last_name":"Uhde","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8058-8857","id":"36049"}],"year":"2012","title":"Cross-border bank lending - Empirical evidence on further determinants from OECD banking markets","doi":"DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.09.004 ","language":[{"iso":"eng"}]},{"status":"public","jel":["G","F"],"user_id":"21810","volume":39,"page":"193-228","_id":"4403","citation":{"mla":"Farruggio, Christian, et al. “Wealth Effects of Credit Risk Securitization in European Banking.” <i>Journal of Business Finance and Accounting</i>, vol. 39, no. 1 &#38; 2, 2012, pp. 193–228, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2012.02273.x\">https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2012.02273.x</a>.","ama":"Farruggio C, Michalak TC, Uhde A. Wealth effects of credit risk securitization in European Banking. <i>Journal of Business Finance and Accounting</i>. 2012;39(1 &#38; 2):193-228. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2012.02273.x\">https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2012.02273.x</a>","bibtex":"@article{Farruggio_Michalak_Uhde_2012, title={Wealth effects of credit risk securitization in European Banking}, volume={39}, DOI={<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2012.02273.x\">https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2012.02273.x</a>}, number={1 &#38; 2}, journal={Journal of Business Finance and Accounting}, author={Farruggio, Christian and Michalak, Tobias C. and Uhde, André}, year={2012}, pages={193–228} }","apa":"Farruggio, C., Michalak, T. C., &#38; Uhde, A. (2012). Wealth effects of credit risk securitization in European Banking. <i>Journal of Business Finance and Accounting</i>, <i>39</i>(1 &#38; 2), 193–228. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2012.02273.x\">https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2012.02273.x</a>","ieee":"C. Farruggio, T. C. Michalak, and A. Uhde, “Wealth effects of credit risk securitization in European Banking,” <i>Journal of Business Finance and Accounting</i>, vol. 39, no. 1 &#38; 2, pp. 193–228, 2012, doi: <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2012.02273.x\">https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2012.02273.x</a>.","chicago":"Farruggio, Christian, Tobias C. Michalak, and André Uhde. “Wealth Effects of Credit Risk Securitization in European Banking.” <i>Journal of Business Finance and Accounting</i> 39, no. 1 &#38; 2 (2012): 193–228. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2012.02273.x\">https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2012.02273.x</a>.","short":"C. Farruggio, T.C. Michalak, A. Uhde, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 39 (2012) 193–228."},"date_updated":"2023-01-10T09:35:34Z","publication_status":"published","intvolume":"        39","title":"Wealth effects of credit risk securitization in European Banking","year":"2012","author":[{"full_name":"Farruggio, Christian","last_name":"Farruggio","first_name":"Christian"},{"first_name":"Tobias C.","last_name":"Michalak","full_name":"Michalak, Tobias C."},{"first_name":"André","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8058-8857","last_name":"Uhde","full_name":"Uhde, André","id":"36049"}],"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2012.02273.x","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"abstract":[{"text":"Using a unique cross‐sectional dataset of 381 cash and synthetic securitizations issued by 53 banks from the EU‐15 plus Switzerland between 1997 and 2007, this paper provides empirical evidence for time‐dependent negative wealth effects of credit risk securitization announcements in European banking. Baseline results hold when comparing estimated wealth effects with a control group of similar but non‐securitizing banks for the relevant time period. Moreover, building several sub samples we find that the nexus between credit risk securitization, the issuing banks’ overall risk exposure and wealth effects is associated with a variety of transaction‐ and bank‐specific factors. ","lang":"eng"}],"extern":"1","publication":"Journal of Business Finance and Accounting","issue":"1&2","type":"journal_article","keyword":["wealth effects","credit risk securitization","Europe","event study"],"department":[{"_id":"186"},{"_id":"188"}],"date_created":"2018-09-14T12:44:33Z"},{"intvolume":"         1","publication_status":"published","date_updated":"2023-01-10T09:35:07Z","author":[{"full_name":"Paul, Stephan","first_name":"Stephan","last_name":"Paul"},{"full_name":"Stein, Stefan","first_name":"Stefan","last_name":"Stein"},{"first_name":"André","last_name":"Uhde","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8058-8857","full_name":"Uhde, André","id":"36049"}],"title":"Measuring the quality of banking supervision revisited - Assessments by German banks before and during the financial crisis","year":"2012","doi":"http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1946120 ","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"extern":"1","abstract":[{"text":"This contribution presents and discusses main results of a new survey on the assessment of supervisory quality among German banks in 2010. In particular, it is analyzed if and how supervised banks’ perception of the quality of supervisory authorities and their instruments has changed due to the financial crisis starting in mid-2007. Subsequently, results from the recent survey are compared with findings provided by a former study carried out by the authors in 2006 (Paul, Stein and Uhde, 2008). ","lang":"eng"}],"publication":"Journal of Governance and Regulation","issue":"3","department":[{"_id":"186"},{"_id":"188"}],"type":"journal_article","keyword":["banking supervision","quality","assessment","banking sector"],"date_created":"2018-09-14T12:37:30Z","jel":["G21","G28"],"status":"public","volume":1,"user_id":"21810","_id":"4402","page":"96-109","citation":{"bibtex":"@article{Paul_Stein_Uhde_2012, title={Measuring the quality of banking supervision revisited - Assessments by German banks before and during the financial crisis}, volume={1}, DOI={<a href=\"http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1946120 \">http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1946120 </a>}, number={3}, journal={Journal of Governance and Regulation}, author={Paul, Stephan and Stein, Stefan and Uhde, André}, year={2012}, pages={96–109} }","ama":"Paul S, Stein S, Uhde A. Measuring the quality of banking supervision revisited - Assessments by German banks before and during the financial crisis. <i>Journal of Governance and Regulation</i>. 2012;1(3):96-109. doi:<a href=\"http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1946120 \">http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1946120 </a>","mla":"Paul, Stephan, et al. “Measuring the Quality of Banking Supervision Revisited - Assessments by German Banks before and during the Financial Crisis.” <i>Journal of Governance and Regulation</i>, vol. 1, no. 3, 2012, pp. 96–109, doi:<a href=\"http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1946120 \">http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1946120 </a>.","short":"S. Paul, S. Stein, A. Uhde, Journal of Governance and Regulation 1 (2012) 96–109.","chicago":"Paul, Stephan, Stefan Stein, and André Uhde. “Measuring the Quality of Banking Supervision Revisited - Assessments by German Banks before and during the Financial Crisis.” <i>Journal of Governance and Regulation</i> 1, no. 3 (2012): 96–109. <a href=\"http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1946120 \">http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1946120 </a>.","ieee":"S. Paul, S. Stein, and A. Uhde, “Measuring the quality of banking supervision revisited - Assessments by German banks before and during the financial crisis,” <i>Journal of Governance and Regulation</i>, vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 96–109, 2012, doi: <a href=\"http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1946120 \">http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1946120 </a>.","apa":"Paul, S., Stein, S., &#38; Uhde, A. (2012). Measuring the quality of banking supervision revisited - Assessments by German banks before and during the financial crisis. <i>Journal of Governance and Regulation</i>, <i>1</i>(3), 96–109. <a href=\"http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1946120 \">http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1946120 </a>"}}]