TY - GEN AB - This study shows how venture capital investors can identify potential biases in multi-year management forecasts before an investment decision and derive significantly more accurate failure predictions. By advancing a cross-sectional projection method developed by prior research and using firm-specific information in financial statements and business plans, we derive benchmarks for management revenue forecasts. With these benchmarks, we estimate forecast errors as an a priori measure of biased expectations. Using this measure for our proprietary dataset on venture-backed start-ups in Germany, we find evidence of substantial upward forecast biases. We uncover that firms with large forecast errors fail significantly more often than do less biased entrepreneurs in years following the investment. Overall, our results highlight the implications of excessive optimism and overconfidence in entrepreneurial environments and emphasize the relevance of accounting information and business plans for venture capital investment decisions. AU - Sievers, Sönke AU - Mokwa, Christopher Frederik ID - 20870 KW - Management forecast biases KW - cross-sectional projection models KW - venture-backed start-ups KW - failure prediction KW - overoptimism KW - overconfidence TI - The Relevance of Biases in Management Forecasts for Failure Prediction in Venture Capital Investments ER - TY - GEN AB - The phenomenon that groups or people work together when they face an opponent, although they have little in common otherwise, has been termed the "common enemy effect". We study a model of network formation, where players can use links to build a network, knowing that they are facing a common enemy who can disrupt the links within the network, and whose goal it is to minimize the sum of the benefits of the network. We find that introducing a common enemy can lead to the formation of stable and efficient networks as well as fragmented networks and the empty network. AU - Hoyer, Britta AU - De Jaegher, Kris ID - 2249 TI - Network Disruption and the Common Enemy Effect VL - 12-06 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Prior, Ulrich AU - Sureth-Sloane, Caren ID - 22920 IS - 3 JF - Journal of Public Economic Theory TI - A Tax Paradox for Investment Decisions under Uncertainty VL - 14 ER - TY - CONF AU - Eggert, A AU - Garnefeld, I AU - Steinhoff, L ID - 7739 T2 - 2012 AMA Summer Marketing Educators' Proceedings TI - The Bright and Dark Side of Endowed Status in Hierarchical Loyalty Programs ER - TY - CONF AU - Garnefeld, I AU - Münkhoff, E AU - Bruns, A ID - 7740 T2 - 2012 AMA Summer Marketing Educators’ Proceedings TI - I thought it was all over and now it is back again – Customer reactions to time extensions of sales promotions ER - TY - CONF AU - Eggert, A AU - Steiner, M AU - Ulaga, W AU - Backhaus, K ID - 7741 T2 - Proceedings of the 2012 ISBM Academic Workshop TI - Capturing the Value of Hybrid Offerings: The Impact of the Price Presentation Format ER - TY - CONF AU - Ritter, T AU - Eggert, A ID - 7742 T2 - Proceedings of the 2012 ISBM Academic Workshop TI - Dispersion of Market Activities: A Configurational Approach ER - TY - CONF AU - Eggert, A AU - Münkhoff, E AU - Thiesbrummel, C ID - 7743 T2 - 2012 AMA Winter Marketing Educators' Proceedings TI - Growing with Industrial Services - A Configurational Approach ER - TY - CONF AU - Eggert, A AU - Garnefeld, I AU - Steinhoff, L ID - 7744 T2 - 2012 AMA Winter Marketing Educators' Proceedings TI - Endowed Status in Hierarchical Loyalty Programs ER - TY - CONF AU - Garnefeld, I AU - Helm, S AU - Eggert, A AU - Tax, S ID - 7745 T2 - 2012 AMA Winter Marketing Educators' Proceedings TI - Growing Existing Customers’ Profitability with Customer Referral Programs ER - TY - CONF AU - Püschel, Tim AU - Schryen, Guido AU - Hristova, Diana AU - Neumann, Dirk ID - 5680 T2 - European Conference on Information Systems TI - Cloud Service Revenue Management ER - TY - CONF AU - Lang, Fabian AU - Schryen, Guido AU - Fink, Andreas ID - 5683 T2 - International Conference on Information Systems TI - Elicitating, modeling, and processing uncertain human preferences for software agents in electronic negotiations: An empirical study ER - TY - JOUR AU - Bodenstein, Christian AU - Schryen, Guido AU - Neumann, Dirk ID - 5688 IS - 1 JF - European Journal of Operational Research : EJOR TI - Energy-Aware Workload Management Models for Operating Cost Reduction in Data Centers VL - 222 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The tendency of managers to focus on short-term results rather than on sustained company success is of particular importance to retail marketing managers, because marketing activities involve expenditures which may only pay off in the longer term. To address the issue of myopic management, our study shows how the complexity of the service profit chain (SPC) can cause managers to make suboptimal decisions. Hence, our paper departs from past research by recognizing that understanding the temporal interplay between operational investments, employee satisfaction, customer satisfaction, and operating profit is essential to achieving sustained success. In particular, we intend to improve understanding of the functioning of the SPC with respect to time lags and feedback loops. Results of our large-scale longitudinal study set in a multi-outlet retail chain reveal time-lag effects between operational investments and employee satisfaction, as well as between customer satisfaction and performance. These findings, along with evidence of a negative interaction effect of employee satisfaction on the relationship between current performance and future investments, show the substantial risk of mismanaging the SPC. We identify specific situations in which the dynamic approach leads to superior marketing investment decisions, when compared to the conventional static view of the SCP. These insights provide valuable managerial guidance for effectively managing the SPC over time. AU - Evanschitzky, Heiner AU - Wangenheim, Florian v AU - Wünderlich, Nancy ID - 5716 IS - 3 JF - Journal of Retailing KW - Employee satisfaction KW - Customer satisfaction KW - Performance KW - Service profit chain KW - Feedback loops KW - Time lags KW - Myopic marketing management TI - Perils of Managing the Service Profit Chain: The Role of Time Lags and Feedback Loops. VL - 88 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Although professional service providers increasingly deliver their services globally, little is known about cross-cultural differences in customers’ motivation to participate in service production. To address this lacuna, we survey a total of 2,284 banking customers in 11 countries on their motivation to provide personal information to, and follow the advice of, their service providers. We find differences in both aspects, but only the differences in providing personal information can be explained by the cultural values of uncertainty avoidance, individualism/collectivism, and masculinity/femininity. To perform certain tasks in the service process, global professional service providers should acknowledge cultural differences in customers’ motivations. AU - Schumann, Jan H AU - Wünderlich, Nancy AU - Zimmer, Marcus S ID - 5717 IS - 2 JF - Schmalenbach Business Review KW - Co-Production KW - Culture KW - Customer Participation KW - Professional Services TI - Culture’s Impact on Customer Motivation to Engage in Professional Service Enactments. VL - 64 ER - TY - JOUR AB - The role of information and communication technology for economic growth has been emphasized repeatedly. Technological breakthroughs have generated new forms of services, such as self-services or remote services. Although these encounters are qualitatively different from traditional service provision, prior service management literature thus far had paid little attention to theory development and the systematization of technology-based service encounters. To fill this research gap, the present study outlines how new types of technology-based services fit into existing service typologies and provides an extension of existing frameworks to capture their unique characteristics. These insights in turn offer managerial implications and highlight open research questions. AU - Schumann, Jan H AU - Wünderlich, Nancy AU - Wangenheim, Florian ID - 5718 IS - 2 JF - Technovation KW - Services KW - Remote services KW - Self-services KW - Technology mediation TI - Technology Mediation in Service Delivery: A New Typology and an Agenda for Managers and Academics. VL - 32 ER - TY - GEN AB - This paper analyzes the stability of capital tax harmonization agreements in a stylized model where countries have formed coalitions which set a common tax rate in order to avoid the inefficient fully non-cooperative Nash equilibrium. In particular, for a given coalition structure we study to what extend the stability of tax agreements is affected by the coalitions that have formed. In our set-up, countries are symmetric, but coalitions can be of arbitrary size. We analyze stability by means of a repeated game setting employing simple trigger strategies and we allow a sub-coalition to deviate from the coalitional equilibrium. For a given form of punishment we are able to rank the stability of different coalition structures as long as the size of the largest coalition does not change. Our main results are: (1) singleton regions have the largest incentives to deviate, (2) the stability of cooperation depends on the degree of cooperative behavior ex-ante. AU - Brangewitz, Sonja AU - Brockhoff, Sarah ID - 578 TI - Stability of Coalitional Equilibria within Repeated Tax Competition ER - TY - GEN AB - We study the consequences of dropping the perfect competition assumption in a standard infinite horizon model with infinitely-lived traders and real collateralized assets, together with one additional ingredient: information among players is asymmetric and monitoring is incomplete. The key insight is that trading assets is not only a way to hedge oneself against uncertainty and to smooth consumption across time: It also enables learning information. Conversely, defaulting now becomes strategic: Certain players may manipulate prices so as to provoke a default in order to prevent their opponents from learning. We focus on learning equilibria, at the end of which no player has incorrect beliefs — not because those players with heterogeneous beliefs were eliminated from the market (although default is possible at equilibrium) but because they have taken time to update their prior belief. We prove a partial Folk theorem à la Wiseman (2011) of the following form: For any function that maps each state of the world to a sequence of feasible and strongly individually rational allocations, and for any degree of precision, there is a perfect Bayesian equilibrium in which patient players learn the realized state with this degree of precision and achieve a payoff close to the one specified for each state. AU - Brangewitz, Sonja ID - 602 TI - Learning by Trading in Infinite Horizon Strategic Market Games with Default ER - TY - JOUR AU - Steinmetz, Holger AU - Schwens, C AU - Wehner, M AU - Kabst, Rüdiger ID - 6102 IS - 1 JF - PERSONALquartely TI - Das Cranet-Projekt: Kreuzkulturelle Vergleiche im HR-Management. VL - 64 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Kabst, Rüdiger AU - Baum, M ID - 6103 IS - 3 JF - PERSONALquartely TI - Editorial: Employer Branding: Strategie, Instrumente, Umsetzung VL - 64 ER -