TY - JOUR AB - We propose an indicator for detecting anomalous stock market valuation in real time such that market participants receive timely signals so as to be able to take stabilizing action. Unlike existing approaches, our anomaly indicator introduces three methodological novelties. First, we use an endogenous, purely data-driven, nonparametric trend identification method to separate long-term market movements from more short-term ones. Second, we apply SETAR models that allow for asymmetric expansions and contractions around the long-term trend and find systematic stock price cycles. Third, we implement these findings in our indicator and conduct real-time market forecasts, which have so far been neglected in the literature. Applications of our indicator using monthly S&P 500 stock data from 1970 to the end of 2022 show that short-term anomalous market movements can be identified in real time up to one year ahead. We predict all major anomalies, including the 1987 Bubble and the initial phase of the Financial Crisis that began in 2007. In total, our anomaly indicator identifies more than 80% of all – even minor – anomalous episodes. Thus, smoothing market exaggerations through early signaling seems possible. AU - Fritz, Marlon AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Wiechers, Lukas ID - 50719 JF - Quantitative Finance KW - General Economics KW - Econometrics and Finance KW - Finance SN - 1469-7688 TI - An early indicator for anomalous stock market performance ER - TY - JOUR AB - I study the effect of heterogeneous beliefs about asset prices on the long-term behavior of financial markets. Starting from the ideas of Abreu and Brunnermeier (Citation2003), a two-dimensional system of differential equations is developed. The first dynamic variable is the asset price growth rate. The second dynamic variable is the number of investors who believe that asset prices are abnormally high. In a phase plane analysis, I find both stable and unstable equilibria, depending on the spread of information and the response to other agents’ beliefs. If individuals try to increase their returns while perceiving more overpricing, these equilibria can be spirals or even approach limit cycles. Although I intend to study general price patterns, abnormally high asset prices can be caused by financial bubbles. In this model, bubbles can emerge and deflate both in cycles or directly, or they can grow until they burst. Further, I analyze market behavior after a central bank increases the interest rate. This can lead to new stable equilibria, but the emergence and bursting of bubbles cannot be prevented. AU - Burs, Carina ID - 49309 IS - 2 JF - Cogent Economics & Finance KW - asset pricing KW - subjective information KW - stability conditions KW - monetary policy KW - risk aversion SN - 2332-2039 TI - A model of cycles and bubbles under heterogeneous beliefs in financial markets VL - 11 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Individuals strive to make decisions that are consistent with not only their consumer preferences but also their psychological needs. However, they are confronted with complex, ambiguous or even false information. Ideologies and belief systems provide guidance when processing and evaluating information and give a coherent and comprehensible interpretation of reality. The first question is: why is an individual attracted to a particular ideology? Individuals choose ideologies that resonate with their subjective psychological needs and preferences. Second, how do individuals search for ideologies and find out which suit them best? We model an individual’s sequential information search for the best matching ideologies by applying Bayesian learning and utility optimization. Additional information enhances utility by reducing uncertainty. As a search is costly, the process may stop once an individual adopts an ideology even if the information set remains incomplete. Third, once they have chosen a particular ideology, individuals adhere to its rules and norms when making everyday decisions. Consumers not only physically consume, but they also act in accordance with their psychological needs. AU - Burs, Carina AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Müller, Veronika ID - 48086 IS - 1 JF - Journal of Organizational Psychology KW - Economics KW - Ideology KW - Decision-making SN - 2158-3609 TI - The Choice of Ideology and Everyday Decisions VL - 23 ER - TY - JOUR AB - AbstractThe ability of various policy activities to reduce the reproduction rate of the COVID-19 disease is widely discussed. Using a stringency index that comprises a variety of lockdown levels, such as school and workplace closures, we analyze the effectiveness of government restrictions. At the same time, we investigate the capacity of a range of lockdown measures to lower the reproduction rate by considering vaccination rates and testing strategies. By including all three components in an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovery) model, we show that a general and comprehensive test strategy is instrumental in reducing the spread of COVID-19. The empirical study demonstrates that testing and isolation represent a highly effective and preferable approach towards overcoming the pandemic, in particular until vaccination rates have risen to the point of herd immunity. AU - Fritz, Marlon AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Redlin, Margarete ID - 44591 JF - International Journal of Health Economics and Management KW - Health Policy KW - Economics KW - Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous) SN - 2199-9023 TI - The effectiveness of vaccination, testing, and lockdown strategies against COVID-19 ER - TY - JOUR AB - AbstractNon-pharmaceutical interventions are an effective strategy to prevent and control COVID-19 transmission in the community. However, the timing and stringency to which these measures have been implemented varied between countries and regions. The differences in stringency can only to a limited extent be explained by the number of infections and the prevailing vaccination strategies. Our study aims to shed more light on the lockdown strategies and to identify the determinants underlying the differences between countries on regional, economic, institutional, and political level. Based on daily panel data for 173 countries and the period from January 2020 to October 2021 we find significant regional differences in lockdown strategies. Further, more prosperous countries implemented milder restrictions but responded more quickly, while poorer countries introduced more stringent measures but had a longer response time. Finally, democratic regimes and stronger manifested institutions alleviated and slowed down the introduction of lockdown measures. AU - Redlin, Margarete ID - 33221 JF - Journal of Regulatory Economics KW - Economics and Econometrics SN - 0922-680X TI - Differences in NPI strategies against COVID-19 ER - TY - JOUR AB - AbstractWe provide a partial equilibrium model wherein AI provides abilities combined with human skills to provide an aggregate intermediate service good. We use the model to find that the extent of automation through AI will be greater if (a) the economy is relatively abundant in sophisticated programs and machine abilities compared to human skills; (b) the economy hosts a relatively large number of AI-providing firms and experts; and (c) the task-specific productivity of AI services is relatively high compared to the task-specific productivity of general labor and labor skills. We also illustrate that the contribution of AI to aggregate productive labor service depends not only on the amount of AI services available but on the endogenous number of automated tasks, the relative productivity of standard and IT-related labor, and the substitutability of tasks. These determinants also affect the income distribution between the two kinds of labor. We derive several empirical implications and identify possible future extensions. AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Naudé, Wim ID - 33220 IS - 1 JF - Journal for Labour Market Research KW - General Medicine SN - 2510-5019 TI - Modelling artificial intelligence in economics VL - 56 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Müller, Veronika AU - Jost, John T. ID - 33219 IS - 2 JF - Psychological Inquiry KW - General Psychology SN - 1047-840X TI - The Market for Belief Systems: A Formal Model of Ideological Choice VL - 33 ER - TY - GEN AB - Information is one of the most important ingredients for decision-making. While the neoclassical assumption of perfect information is surely an important conceptual benchmark for discussing efficient allocations, it is obviously far from describing a rational choice under real conditions. In reality, optimal choices should be considered choices under imperfect information. Thus, decision-makers' information problem can be solved by two strategies. Either they collect an optimal set of information to make an optimal allocation choice under this imperfect information set or they can apply heuristic reasoning. In this paper, we suggest a formal model framework for the example of a simple consumer decision for the allocation of differentiated goods to explore information acquisition strategies in such a simple standard choice situation. Using the model variation under perfect information as a benchmark, we answer the following questions. First and most importantly, under imperfect information, can a heuristic rule substitute information acquisition as an optimal choice? Second, what is the role of risk aversion in the information acquisition process? Finally, we explore the differences to the benchmark, both ex ante the first purchase decision and ex post when repeated purchases and consumption allows for experiences with the choices made. AU - Burs, Carina AU - Gries, Thomas ID - 49308 KW - information economics KW - imperfect information KW - Bayesian learning KW - risk KW - heuristics KW - differentiated products TI - Decision-making under Imperfect Information with Bayesian Learning or Heuristic Rules VL - No. 149 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Feng, Yuanhua AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Letmathe, Sebastian AU - Schulz, Dominik ID - 33666 IS - 1 JF - The R Journal KW - Statistics KW - Probability and Uncertainty KW - Numerical Analysis KW - Statistics and Probability SN - 2073-4859 TI - The smoots Package in R for Semiparametric Modeling of Trend Stationary Time Series VL - 14 ER - TY - JOUR AB - AbstractUsing data from the German Socio-Economic Panel for 1984–2018, we analyze the intergenerational education mobility of immigrants in Germany by identifying the determinants of differences in educational stocks for first- and second-generation immigrants in comparison to individuals without a migration background. Our results show that on average, first-generation immigrants have fewer years of schooling than native-born Germans and have a disproportionate share of lower educational qualifications. This gap is strongly driven by age at immigration, with immigration age and education revealing a nonlinear relationship. While the gap is relatively small among individuals who migrate at a young age, integrating in the school system at secondary school age leads to large disadvantages. Examining the educational mobility of immigrants in Germany, we identify an inter-generational catch-up in education. The gap in education between immigrants and natives is reduced for the second generation. Finally, we find that country of origin differences can account for much of the education gap. While immigrants with an ethnic background closer to the German language and culture show the best education outcomes, immigrants from Turkey, Italy, and other southern European countries and especially the group of war refugees from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and other MENA countries, have the lowest educational attainment. AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Redlin, Margarete AU - Zehra, Moonum ID - 22715 JF - Journal of International Migration and Integration SN - 1488-3473 TI - Educational Assimilation of First-Generation and Second-Generation Immigrants in Germany ER - TY - JOUR AB - AbstractUsing time series data for the period 1959–2015, our empirical analysis examines the simultaneous effects of the individual components of the global carbon budget on temperature. Specifically, we explore the possible effects of carbon emissions caused by fossil fuel combustion, cement production, land-use change emissions, and carbon sinks (here in terms of land sink and ocean sink) on climate change. The simultaneous inclusion of carbon emissions and carbon sinks allows us to look at the coexistent and opposing effects of the individual components of the carbon budget and thus provides a holistic perspective from which to explore the relationship between the global carbon budget and global warming. The results reveal a significant positive effect of carbon emissions on temperature for both fossil fuels emissions and emissions from land-use change, confirming previous results concerning carbon dioxide and temperature. Further, while ocean sink does not seem to have a significant effect, we identify a temperature-decreasing effect for land sink. AU - Redlin, Margarete AU - Gries, Thomas ID - 23594 JF - Theoretical and Applied Climatology SN - 0177-798X TI - Anthropogenic climate change: the impact of the global carbon budget ER - TY - JOUR AU - Feng, Yuanhua AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Fritz, Marlon ID - 17072 JF - Journal of Nonparametric Statistics SN - 1048-5252 TI - Data-driven local polynomial for the trend and its derivatives in economic time series ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Grundmann, Rainer ID - 17074 JF - Review of Development Economics SN - 1363-6669 TI - Modern sector development: The role of exports and institutions in developing countries ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Redlin, Margarete ID - 17086 JF - International Economics and Economic Policy SN - 1612-4804 TI - Trade and economic development: global causality and development- and openness-related heterogeneity VL - 17 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Jungblut, Stefan AU - Krieger, Tim AU - Meyer, Henning ID - 2808 IS - 2 JF - German Economic Review TI - Economic Retirement Age and Lifelong Learning - a theoretical model with heterogeneous labor and biased technical change VL - 20 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Fritz, Marlon AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Feng, Yuanhua ID - 9920 JF - Economics Letters SN - 0165-1765 TI - Secular stagnation? Is there statistical evidence of an unprecedented, systematic decline in growth? VL - 181 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Fritz, Marlon AU - Yuanhua, Feng ID - 6734 IS - 1 JF - Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics TI - Growth Trends and Systematic Patterns of Boom and Busts –Testing 200 Years of Business Cycle Dynamics VL - 81 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas ID - 10090 JF - The American Economist SN - 0569-4345 TI - A New Theory of Demand-Restricted Growth: The Basic Idea ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Redlin, Margarete ID - 2727 IS - 3 JF - Defence and Peace Economics SN - 1024-2694 TI - Pirates – The Young and the Jobless: The Effect of Youth Bulges and Youth Labor Market Integration on Maritime Piracy VL - 30 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Grundmann, Rainer ID - 2814 IS - 3 JF - Journal of International Development TI - Fertility and Modernization: The Role of Urbanization in Developing Countries VL - 30 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Meierrieks, Daniel ID - 8481 JF - Defence and Peace Economics TI - "Pay for It Heavily": Does U.S. Support for Israel Lead to Anti-American Terrorism? ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Redlin, Margarete AU - Ugarte, Juliette Espinosa ID - 2728 JF - Theoretical and Applied Climatology SN - 0177-798X TI - Human-induced climate change: the impact of land-use change ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Fritz, Marlon AU - Feng, Yuanhua ID - 3070 IS - 2 JF - Review of Economics TI - Slow Booms and Deep Busts: 160 Years of Business Cycles in Spain VL - 68 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, T. AU - Grundmann, R. AU - Palnau, Irene AU - Redlin, Margarete ID - 1372 IS - 2 JF - International Economics and Economic Policy SN - 1612-4804 TI - Innovations, growth and participation in advanced economies - a review of major concepts and findings VL - 14 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Grundmann, R. AU - Palnau, Irene AU - Redlin, Margarete ID - 1371 IS - 1 JF - International Economics and Economic Policy SN - 1612-4804 TI - Technology diffusion, international integration and participation in developing economies - a review of major concepts and findings VL - 15 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Kraft, Manfred AU - Simon, Manuel ID - 2810 IS - 95 JF - Papers in Regional Science TI - Explaining inter-provincial migration in China VL - 4 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Haake, Claus-Jochen ID - 2811 IS - 4 JF - Peace Economics and Peace Science TI - Towards an Economic Theory of Destabilization War VL - 22 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Jungblut, Stefan AU - Naudé, Wim ID - 2813 IS - 2 JF - International Journal of Economic Theory TI - The Entrepreneurship Beveridge Curve VL - 12 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Naudé, Wim AU - Bilkic, Natascha ID - 2815 JF - The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance TI - Playing the Lottery or Dressing Up? A Model of Firm-Level Heterogeneity and the Decision to Export VL - 58 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Feng, Yuanhua AU - Guo, Zhichao ID - 2816 IS - 2 JF - China Agricultural Economic Review TI - Changes of China’s agri-food exports to Germany caused by its accession to WTO and the 2008 financial crisis VL - 7 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Palnau, Irene ID - 3295 IS - 4 JF - Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy TI - Sustaining Civil Peace: a configurational comparative analysis VL - 21 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Meierrieks, Daniel AU - Redlin, Margarete ID - 3296 IS - 1 JF - Oxford Economic Papers TI - Oppressive Governments, Dependence on the United States and Anti-American Terrorism VL - 67 ER - TY - GEN AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Grundmann, Rainer AU - Palnau, Irene AU - Redlin, Margarete ID - 2730 TI - Does technological change drive inclusive industrialization? - A review of major concepts and findings VL - 2015-044 ER - TY - GEN AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Grundmann, Rainer AU - Palnau, Irene AU - Redlin, Margarete ID - 1374 TI - Does technological change drive inclusive industrialization? A review of major concepts and findings ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Grundmann, Rainer ID - 2819 IS - 4 JF - Journal of Population Economics TI - Trade and fertility in the developing world: the impact of trade and trade structure VL - 27 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Dung, Ha Van ID - 2842 JF - Modern Economy TI - Household Savings and Productive Capital Formation in Rural Vietnam: Insurance vs. Social Network VL - 5 ER - TY - CHAP AU - Gries, Thomas ED - Jinjun, Xue ID - 3289 SN - 978-9814383097 T2 - Low Carbon Economics TI - Low Carbon Economics - Theory and application VL - Chapter 22 ER - TY - GEN AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Meierriecks, Daniel AU - Redlin, Margarete ID - 2731 TI - Providing aid to repressive terrorist source countries does not make the U.S. any safer ER - TY - GEN AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Redlin, Margarete ID - 2732 TI - Maritime Piracy: Socio-Economic, Political, and Institutional Determinants VL - 2014-75 ER - TY - GEN AU - Dimant, Eugen AU - Krieger, Tim AU - Redlin, Margarete ID - 2738 TI - A Crook is a Crook ... But is He Still a Crook Abroad? On the Effect of Immigration on Destination-Country Corruption VL - 5032 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Dimant, Eugen AU - Krieger, Tim AU - Redlin, Margarete ID - 2729 IS - 4 JF - German Economic Review SN - 1465-6485 TI - A Crook is a Crook … But is He Still a Crook Abroad? On the Effect of Immigration on Destination-Country Corruption VL - 16 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Meierrieks, Daniel AU - Redlin, Margarete ID - 33087 IS - 1 JF - Oxford Economic Papers KW - Economics and Econometrics SN - 0030-7653 TI - Oppressive governments, dependence on the USA, and anti-American terrorism VL - 67 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Bilkic, Natascha AU - Carerras Painter, Ben ID - 2843 IS - 1 JF - International Economics and Economic Policy TI - Unsustainable Sovereign Debt - Is the Euro Crisis only the Tip of the Iceberg? VL - 10 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas ID - 2844 JF - Oxford University Press TI - Global Asymmetries and their Implications for Climate and Industrial Policies, in: Pathways to Industrialization in the Twenty-First Century - New Challenges and Emerging Paradigms VL - ch. 11 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Meierrieks, Daniel ID - 2845 IS - 3 JF - Economics Letters TI - Do banking crises cause terrorism? VL - 119 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Meierrieks, DAniel ID - 2846 IS - 1 JF - Journal of Peace Research TI - Causality Between Terrorism and Economic Growth VL - 50 ER - TY - GEN AU - Dimant, Eugen AU - Krieger, Tim AU - Redlin, Margarete ID - 2733 TI - A Crook is a Crook … But is He Still a Crook Abroad? - On the Effect of Immigration on Destination-Country Corruption VL - 2013-14 ER - TY - GEN AU - Dimant, Eugen AU - Krieger, Tim AU - Redlin, Margarete ID - 2739 TI - A crook is a crook ... but is he still a crook abroad? On the effect of immigration on destination-country corruption VL - 2013-03 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Bilkic, Natascha AU - Pilichowski, Margarethe ID - 2949 IS - 5 JF - Labour Economics TI - Stay in school or start working?- The human capital investment decision under uncertainty and irreversibility VL - 19 ER - TY - CHAP AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Xue, Jinjun ED - Wang, Liming ID - 2950 SN - 9781138816732 T2 - Rising China in the Changing World Economy TI - Poverty in Shenzhen ER -