TY - JOUR AB - We propose an indicator for detecting anomalous stock market valuation in real time such that market participants receive timely signals so as to be able to take stabilizing action. Unlike existing approaches, our anomaly indicator introduces three methodological novelties. First, we use an endogenous, purely data-driven, nonparametric trend identification method to separate long-term market movements from more short-term ones. Second, we apply SETAR models that allow for asymmetric expansions and contractions around the long-term trend and find systematic stock price cycles. Third, we implement these findings in our indicator and conduct real-time market forecasts, which have so far been neglected in the literature. Applications of our indicator using monthly S&P 500 stock data from 1970 to the end of 2022 show that short-term anomalous market movements can be identified in real time up to one year ahead. We predict all major anomalies, including the 1987 Bubble and the initial phase of the Financial Crisis that began in 2007. In total, our anomaly indicator identifies more than 80% of all – even minor – anomalous episodes. Thus, smoothing market exaggerations through early signaling seems possible. AU - Fritz, Marlon AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Wiechers, Lukas ID - 50719 JF - Quantitative Finance KW - General Economics KW - Econometrics and Finance KW - Finance SN - 1469-7688 TI - An early indicator for anomalous stock market performance ER - TY - JOUR AB - Individual cognitive functioning declines over time. We seek to understand how adverse physical health shocks in older ages contribute to this development. By use of event-study methods and data from the USA, England, and several countries in Continental Europe, we find evidence that health shocks lead to an immediate and persistent decline in cognitive functioning. This robust finding holds in all regions representing different health insurance systems and seems to be independent of underlying individual demographic characteristics such as sex and age. We also ask whether variables that are susceptible to policy action can reduce the negative consequences of a health shock. Our results suggest that neither compulsory education nor retirement regulations moderate the effects, thus emphasizing the importance for cognitive functioning of maintaining good physical health in old age. AU - Schiele, Valentin AU - Schmitz, Hendrik ID - 35637 JF - European Economic Review TI - Understanding cognitive decline in older ages: The role of health shocks VL - 151 ER - TY - JOUR AB - We propose a new method to estimate and isolate the localization of knowledge spillovers due to the physical presence of a person, using after-application but pre-grant deaths of differently located coinventors of the same patent. The approach estimates the differences in local citations between the deceased and still-living inventors at increasingly distant radii. Patents receive 26 percent fewer citations from within a radius of 20 miles around the deceased, relative to still-living coinventors. Differences attenuate with time and distance, are stronger when still-living coinventors live farther from the deceased, and hold for a subsample of possibly premature deaths. (JEL O31, O33, O34, R32) AU - Balsmeier, Benjamin AU - Fleming, Lee AU - Lück, Sonja ID - 42638 IS - 1 JF - American Economic Review: Insights KW - Management KW - Monitoring KW - Policy and Law KW - Geography KW - Planning and Development SN - 2640-205X TI - Isolating Personal Knowledge Spillovers: Coinventor Deaths and Spatial Citation Differentials VL - 5 ER - TY - JOUR AB - We study how competition between physicians affects the provision of medical care. In our theoretical model, physicians are faced with a heterogeneous patient population, in which patients systematically vary with regard to both their responsiveness to the provided quality of care and their state of health. We test the behavioral predictions derived from this model in a controlled laboratory experiment. In line with the model, we observe that competition significantly improves patient benefits as long as patients are able to respond to the quality provided. For those patients, who are not able to choose a physician, competition even decreases the patient benefit compared to a situation without competition. This decrease is in contrast to our theoretical prediction implying no change in benefits for passive patients. Deviations from patient-optimal treatment are highest for passive patients in need of a low quantity of medical services. With repetition, both, the positive effects of competition for active patients as well as the negative effects of competition for passive patients become more pronounced. Our results imply that competition can not only improve but also worsen patient outcome and that patients’ responsiveness to quality is decisive. AU - Brosig-Koch, Jeannette AU - Hehenkamp, Burkhard AU - Kokot, Johanna ID - 44092 JF - Health Economics KW - physician competition KW - patient characteristics KW - heterogeneity in quality responses KW - fee-for-service KW - laboratory experiment TI - Who benefits from quality competition in health care? A theory and a laboratory experiment on the relevance of patient characteristics ER - TY - GEN AB - We consider a model where for-profit providers compete in quality in a price-regulated market that has been opened to competition, and where the incumbent is located at the center of the market, facing high costs of relocation. The model is relevant in markets such as public health care, education and schooling, or postal services. We find that, when the regulated price is low or intermediate, the entrant strategically locates towards the corner of the market to keep the incumbent at the low monopoly quality level. For a high price, the entrant locates at the corner of the market and both providers implement higher quality compared to a monopoly. In any case, the entrant implements higher quality than the incumbent provider. Social welfare is always higher in a duopoly if the cost of quality is low. For higher cost levels welfare is non-monotonic in the price and it can be optimal to the regulator not to use its entire budget. Therefore, the welfare effect of entry depends on the price and the size of the entry cost, and the regulator should condition the decision to allow entry on an assessment of the entry cost. AU - Hehenkamp, Burkhard AU - Kaarbøe, Oddvar M. ID - 44093 KW - Quality competition KW - Price regulation KW - Location choice KW - Product differentiation TI - Price Regulation, Quality Competition and Location Choice with Costly Relocation ER - TY - GEN AB - We study the effect of education on health (hospital stays, number of diagnosed conditions, self-rated poor health, and obesity) over the life-cycle in Germany, using compulsory schooling reforms as a source of exogenous variation. Our results suggest a positive correlation of health and education which increases over the life-cycle. We do not, however, find any positive local average treatment effects of an additional year of schooling on health or health care utilization for individuals up to age 79. An exception is obesity, where positive effects of schooling start to be visible around age 60 and become very large in age group 75-79. The results in age group 75-79 need to be interpreted with caution, however, due to small sample size and possible problems of attrition. AU - Schmitz, Hendrik AU - Tawiah, Beatrice Baaba ID - 46534 KW - Education KW - health KW - life-cycle effects KW - compulsory schooling TI - Life-cycle health effects of compulsory schooling VL - 1006 ER - TY - GEN AU - Freise, Diana AU - Schiele, Valentin AU - Schmitz, Hendrik ID - 46521 KW - General Earth and Planetary Sciences KW - General Environmental Science SN - 1556-5068 TI - Housing Situations and Local COVID-19 Infection Dynamics – A Case Study With Small-Area Data ER - TY - GEN AB - We study the effect of education on vaccination against COVID-19 and influenza in Germany and Europe. Our identification strategy makes use of changes in compulsory schooling laws and allows to estimate local average treatment effects for individuals between 59 and 91 years of age. We find no significant effect of an additional year of schooling on vaccination status in Germany. Pooling data from Europe, we conclude that schooling increases the likelihood to vaccinate against COVID by an economically negligible effect of one percentage point (zero for influenza). However, we find indications that additional schooling increases fear of side effects from COVID vaccination. AU - Monsees, Daniel AU - Schmitz, Hendrik ID - 46536 KW - COVID KW - influenza KW - vaccination KW - education KW - compulsory schooling TI - The effect of compulsory schooling on vaccination against COVID and Influenza VL - 1011 ER - TY - JOUR AB - Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) enables researchers in international management to better understand how the impact of a single explanatory factor depends on the context of other factors. But the analytical toolbox of QCA does not include a parameter for the explanatory power of a single explanatory factor or “condition”. In this paper, we therefore reinterpret the Banzhaf power index, originally developed in cooperative game theory, to establish a goodness-of-fit parameter in QCA. The relative Banzhaf index we suggest measures the explanatory power of one condition averaged across all sufficient combinations of conditions. The paper argues that the index is especially informative in three situations that are all salient in international management and call for a context-sensitive analysis of single conditions, namely substantial limited diversity in the data, the emergence of strong INUS conditions in the analysis, and theorizing with contingency factors. The paper derives the properties of the relative Banzhaf index in QCA, demonstrates how the index can be computed easily from a rudimentary truth table, and explores its insights by revisiting selected papers in international management that apply fuzzy-set QCA. It finally suggests a three-step procedure for utilizing the relative Banzhaf index when the causal structure involves both contingency effects and configurational causation. AU - Haake, Claus-Jochen AU - Schneider, Martin ID - 34114 JF - Journal of International Management KW - Qualitative comparative analysis KW - Banzhaf power index KW - causality KW - explanatory power TI - Playing games with QCA: Measuring the explanatory power of single conditions with the Banzhaf index ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hoyer, Britta AU - van Straaten, Dirk ID - 30341 JF - Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics KW - General Social Sciences KW - Economics and Econometrics KW - Applied Psychology SN - 2214-8043 TI - Anonymity and Self-Expression in Online Rating Systems - An Experimental Analysis VL - 98 ER - TY - GEN AB - We study the consequences of modeling asymmetric bargaining power in two-person bargaining problems. Comparing application of an asymmetric version of a bargaining solution to an upfront modification of the disagreement point, the resulting distortion crucially depends on the bargaining solution concept. While for the Kalai-Smorodinsky solution weaker players benefit from modifying the disagreement point, the situation is reversed for the Nash bargaining solution. There, weaker players are better off in the asymmetric bargaining solution. When comparing application of the asymmetric versions of the Nash and the Kalai-Smorodinsky solutions, we demonstrate that there is an upper bound for the weight of a player, so that she is better off with the Nash bargaining solution. This threshold is ultimately determined by the relative utilitarian bargaining solution. From a mechanism design perspective, our results provide valuable information for a social planner, when implementing a bargaining solution for unequally powerful players. AU - Haake, Claus-Jochen AU - Streck, Thomas ID - 32106 KW - Asymmetric bargaining power KW - Nash bargaining solution KW - Kalai-Smorodinsky bargaining solution TI - Distortion through modeling asymmetric bargaining power VL - 148 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Hoyer, Britta AU - De Jaegher, Kris ID - 31881 JF - International Journal of Game Theory TI - Network Disruption and the Common-Enemy Effect ER - TY - JOUR AB - AbstractNon-pharmaceutical interventions are an effective strategy to prevent and control COVID-19 transmission in the community. However, the timing and stringency to which these measures have been implemented varied between countries and regions. The differences in stringency can only to a limited extent be explained by the number of infections and the prevailing vaccination strategies. Our study aims to shed more light on the lockdown strategies and to identify the determinants underlying the differences between countries on regional, economic, institutional, and political level. Based on daily panel data for 173 countries and the period from January 2020 to October 2021 we find significant regional differences in lockdown strategies. Further, more prosperous countries implemented milder restrictions but responded more quickly, while poorer countries introduced more stringent measures but had a longer response time. Finally, democratic regimes and stronger manifested institutions alleviated and slowed down the introduction of lockdown measures. AU - Redlin, Margarete ID - 33221 JF - Journal of Regulatory Economics KW - Economics and Econometrics SN - 0922-680X TI - Differences in NPI strategies against COVID-19 ER - TY - JOUR AB - AbstractWe provide a partial equilibrium model wherein AI provides abilities combined with human skills to provide an aggregate intermediate service good. We use the model to find that the extent of automation through AI will be greater if (a) the economy is relatively abundant in sophisticated programs and machine abilities compared to human skills; (b) the economy hosts a relatively large number of AI-providing firms and experts; and (c) the task-specific productivity of AI services is relatively high compared to the task-specific productivity of general labor and labor skills. We also illustrate that the contribution of AI to aggregate productive labor service depends not only on the amount of AI services available but on the endogenous number of automated tasks, the relative productivity of standard and IT-related labor, and the substitutability of tasks. These determinants also affect the income distribution between the two kinds of labor. We derive several empirical implications and identify possible future extensions. AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Naudé, Wim ID - 33220 IS - 1 JF - Journal for Labour Market Research KW - General Medicine SN - 2510-5019 TI - Modelling artificial intelligence in economics VL - 56 ER - TY - JOUR AU - Gries, Thomas AU - Müller, Veronika AU - Jost, John T. ID - 33219 IS - 2 JF - Psychological Inquiry KW - General Psychology SN - 1047-840X TI - The Market for Belief Systems: A Formal Model of Ideological Choice VL - 33 ER - TY - GEN AB - We study the effects of product differentiation on the bundling incentives of a two-product retailer. Two monopolistic manufacturers each produce a differentiated good. One sells it to both retailers, while the other only supplies a single retailer. Retailers compete in prices. Retail bundling is profitable when the goods are close substitutes. Only then is competition so intense that the retailer uses bundling to relax competition both within and across product markets, despite an aggravation of the double marginalization problem. Our asymmetric market structure arises endogenously for the case of close substitutes. In this case, bundling reduces social welfare. AU - Endres-Fröhlich, Angelika Elfriede AU - Hehenkamp, Burkhard AU - Heinzel, Joachim ID - 44091 KW - Retail bundling KW - upstream market power KW - double marginalization KW - product differentiation TI - The Impact of Product Differentiation on Retail Bundling in a Vertical Market ER - TY - GEN AU - N., N. ID - 42326 TI - Manipulation durch Fake-Bewertungen: Einfluss von Such- und Erfahrungsgütern auf das manipulative Verhalten des Verkäufers ER - TY - GEN AU - N., N. ID - 42322 TI - An Analysis of Coalition Formation Methods to achieve Maximum Social Surplus ER - TY - GEN AU - N., N. ID - 42324 TI - Die Möglichkeiten der Blockchain-Technologie im Supply Chain Management - eine spieltheoretische Analyse ER - TY - GEN AU - N., N. ID - 42318 TI - Kindergarten Allocation and the Tradeoff between Stability and Diversity Considerations ER -