TY - JOUR
AB - We propose an indicator for detecting anomalous stock market valuation in real time such that market participants receive timely signals so as to be able to take stabilizing action. Unlike existing approaches, our anomaly indicator introduces three methodological novelties. First, we use an endogenous, purely data-driven, nonparametric trend identification method to separate long-term market movements from more short-term ones. Second, we apply SETAR models that allow for asymmetric expansions and contractions around the long-term trend and find systematic stock price cycles. Third, we implement these findings in our indicator and conduct real-time market forecasts, which have so far been neglected in the literature. Applications of our indicator using monthly S&P 500 stock data from 1970 to the end of 2022 show that short-term anomalous market movements can be identified in real time up to one year ahead. We predict all major anomalies, including the 1987 Bubble and the initial phase of the Financial Crisis that began in 2007. In total, our anomaly indicator identifies more than 80% of all – even minor – anomalous episodes. Thus, smoothing market exaggerations through early signaling seems possible.
AU - Fritz, Marlon
AU - Gries, Thomas
AU - Wiechers, Lukas
ID - 50719
JF - Quantitative Finance
KW - General Economics
KW - Econometrics and Finance
KW - Finance
SN - 1469-7688
TI - An early indicator for anomalous stock market performance
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - Individual cognitive functioning declines over time. We seek to understand how adverse physical health shocks in older ages contribute to this development. By use of event-study methods and data from the USA, England, and several countries in Continental Europe, we find evidence that health shocks lead to an immediate and persistent decline in cognitive functioning. This robust finding holds in all regions representing different health insurance systems and seems to be independent of underlying individual demographic characteristics such as sex and age. We also ask whether variables that are susceptible to policy action can reduce the negative consequences of a health shock. Our results suggest that neither compulsory education nor retirement regulations moderate the effects, thus emphasizing the importance for cognitive functioning of maintaining good physical health in old age.
AU - Schiele, Valentin
AU - Schmitz, Hendrik
ID - 35637
JF - European Economic Review
TI - Understanding cognitive decline in older ages: The role of health shocks
VL - 151
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - We propose a new method to estimate and isolate the localization of knowledge spillovers due to the physical presence of a person, using after-application but pre-grant deaths of differently located coinventors of the same patent. The approach estimates the differences in local citations between the deceased and still-living inventors at increasingly distant radii. Patents receive 26 percent fewer citations from within a radius of 20 miles around the deceased, relative to still-living coinventors. Differences attenuate with time and distance, are stronger when still-living coinventors live farther from the deceased, and hold for a subsample of possibly premature deaths. (JEL O31, O33, O34, R32)
AU - Balsmeier, Benjamin
AU - Fleming, Lee
AU - Lück, Sonja
ID - 42638
IS - 1
JF - American Economic Review: Insights
KW - Management
KW - Monitoring
KW - Policy and Law
KW - Geography
KW - Planning and Development
SN - 2640-205X
TI - Isolating Personal Knowledge Spillovers: Coinventor Deaths and Spatial Citation Differentials
VL - 5
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - We study how competition between physicians affects the provision of medical care. In
our theoretical model, physicians are faced with a heterogeneous patient population, in which patients
systematically vary with regard to both their responsiveness to the provided quality of care and their
state of health. We test the behavioral predictions derived from this model in a controlled laboratory
experiment. In line with the model, we observe that competition significantly improves patient benefits
as long as patients are able to respond to the quality provided. For those patients, who are not able
to choose a physician, competition even decreases the patient benefit compared to a situation without
competition. This decrease is in contrast to our theoretical prediction implying no change in benefits for
passive patients. Deviations from patient-optimal treatment are highest for passive patients in need of
a low quantity of medical services. With repetition, both, the positive effects of competition for active
patients as well as the negative effects of competition for passive patients become more pronounced. Our
results imply that competition can not only improve but also worsen patient outcome and that patients’
responsiveness to quality is decisive.
AU - Brosig-Koch, Jeannette
AU - Hehenkamp, Burkhard
AU - Kokot, Johanna
ID - 44092
JF - Health Economics
KW - physician competition
KW - patient characteristics
KW - heterogeneity in quality responses
KW - fee-for-service
KW - laboratory experiment
TI - Who benefits from quality competition in health care? A theory and a laboratory experiment on the relevance of patient characteristics
ER -
TY - GEN
AB - We consider a model where for-profit providers compete in quality in a price-regulated market that has been opened to competition, and where the incumbent is located at the center of the market, facing high costs of relocation. The model is relevant in markets such as public health care, education and schooling, or postal services. We find that, when the regulated price is low or intermediate, the entrant strategically locates towards the corner of the market to keep the incumbent at the low monopoly quality level. For a high price, the entrant locates at the corner of the market and both providers implement higher quality compared to a monopoly. In any case, the entrant implements higher quality than the incumbent provider. Social welfare is always higher in a duopoly if the cost of quality is low. For higher cost levels welfare is non-monotonic in the price and it can be optimal to the regulator not to use its entire budget. Therefore, the welfare effect of entry depends on the price and the size of the entry cost, and the regulator should condition the decision to allow entry on an assessment of the entry cost.
AU - Hehenkamp, Burkhard
AU - Kaarbøe, Oddvar M.
ID - 44093
KW - Quality competition
KW - Price regulation
KW - Location choice
KW - Product differentiation
TI - Price Regulation, Quality Competition and Location Choice with Costly Relocation
ER -
TY - GEN
AB - We study the effect of education on health (hospital stays, number of diagnosed conditions, self-rated poor health, and obesity) over the life-cycle in Germany, using compulsory schooling reforms as a source of exogenous variation. Our results suggest a positive correlation of health and education which increases over the life-cycle. We do not, however, find any positive local average treatment effects of an additional year of schooling on health or health care utilization for individuals up to age 79. An exception is obesity, where positive effects of schooling start to be visible around age 60 and become very large in age group 75-79. The results in age group 75-79 need to be interpreted with caution, however, due to small sample size and possible problems of attrition.
AU - Schmitz, Hendrik
AU - Tawiah, Beatrice Baaba
ID - 46534
KW - Education
KW - health
KW - life-cycle effects
KW - compulsory schooling
TI - Life-cycle health effects of compulsory schooling
VL - 1006
ER -
TY - GEN
AU - Freise, Diana
AU - Schiele, Valentin
AU - Schmitz, Hendrik
ID - 46521
KW - General Earth and Planetary Sciences
KW - General Environmental Science
SN - 1556-5068
TI - Housing Situations and Local COVID-19 Infection Dynamics – A Case Study With Small-Area Data
ER -
TY - GEN
AB - We study the effect of education on vaccination against COVID-19 and influenza in Germany and Europe. Our identification strategy makes use of changes in compulsory schooling laws and allows to estimate local average treatment effects for individuals between 59 and 91 years of age. We find no significant effect of an additional year of schooling on vaccination status in Germany. Pooling data from Europe, we conclude that schooling increases the likelihood to vaccinate against COVID by an economically negligible effect of one percentage point (zero for influenza). However, we find indications that additional schooling increases fear of side effects from COVID vaccination.
AU - Monsees, Daniel
AU - Schmitz, Hendrik
ID - 46536
KW - COVID
KW - influenza
KW - vaccination
KW - education
KW - compulsory schooling
TI - The effect of compulsory schooling on vaccination against COVID and Influenza
VL - 1011
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) enables researchers in international management to better understand how the impact of a single explanatory factor depends on the context of other factors. But the analytical toolbox of QCA does not include a parameter for the explanatory power of a single explanatory factor or “condition”. In this paper, we therefore reinterpret the Banzhaf power index, originally developed in cooperative game theory, to establish a goodness-of-fit parameter in QCA. The relative Banzhaf index we suggest measures the explanatory power of one condition averaged across all sufficient combinations of conditions. The paper argues that the index is especially informative in three situations that are all salient in international management and call for a context-sensitive analysis of single conditions, namely substantial limited diversity in the data, the emergence of strong INUS conditions in the analysis, and theorizing with contingency factors. The paper derives the properties of the relative Banzhaf index in QCA, demonstrates how the index can be computed easily from a rudimentary truth table, and explores its insights by revisiting selected papers in international management that apply fuzzy-set QCA. It finally suggests a three-step procedure for utilizing the relative Banzhaf index when the causal structure involves both contingency effects and configurational causation.
AU - Haake, Claus-Jochen
AU - Schneider, Martin
ID - 34114
JF - Journal of International Management
KW - Qualitative comparative analysis
KW - Banzhaf power index
KW - causality
KW - explanatory power
TI - Playing games with QCA: Measuring the explanatory power of single conditions with the Banzhaf index
ER -
TY - JOUR
AU - Hoyer, Britta
AU - van Straaten, Dirk
ID - 30341
JF - Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics
KW - General Social Sciences
KW - Economics and Econometrics
KW - Applied Psychology
SN - 2214-8043
TI - Anonymity and Self-Expression in Online Rating Systems - An Experimental Analysis
VL - 98
ER -
TY - GEN
AB - We study the consequences of modeling asymmetric bargaining power in two-person bargaining problems. Comparing application of an asymmetric version of a bargaining solution to an upfront modification of the disagreement point, the resulting distortion crucially depends on the bargaining solution concept. While for the Kalai-Smorodinsky solution weaker players benefit from modifying the disagreement point, the situation is reversed for the Nash bargaining solution. There, weaker players are better off in the asymmetric bargaining solution. When comparing application of the asymmetric versions of the Nash and the Kalai-Smorodinsky solutions, we demonstrate that there is an upper bound for the weight of a player, so that she is better off with the Nash bargaining solution. This threshold is ultimately determined by the relative utilitarian bargaining solution. From a mechanism design perspective, our results provide valuable information for a social planner, when implementing a bargaining solution for unequally powerful players.
AU - Haake, Claus-Jochen
AU - Streck, Thomas
ID - 32106
KW - Asymmetric bargaining power
KW - Nash bargaining solution
KW - Kalai-Smorodinsky bargaining solution
TI - Distortion through modeling asymmetric bargaining power
VL - 148
ER -
TY - JOUR
AU - Hoyer, Britta
AU - De Jaegher, Kris
ID - 31881
JF - International Journal of Game Theory
TI - Network Disruption and the Common-Enemy Effect
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - AbstractNon-pharmaceutical interventions are an effective strategy to prevent and control COVID-19 transmission in the community. However, the timing and stringency to which these measures have been implemented varied between countries and regions. The differences in stringency can only to a limited extent be explained by the number of infections and the prevailing vaccination strategies. Our study aims to shed more light on the lockdown strategies and to identify the determinants underlying the differences between countries on regional, economic, institutional, and political level. Based on daily panel data for 173 countries and the period from January 2020 to October 2021 we find significant regional differences in lockdown strategies. Further, more prosperous countries implemented milder restrictions but responded more quickly, while poorer countries introduced more stringent measures but had a longer response time. Finally, democratic regimes and stronger manifested institutions alleviated and slowed down the introduction of lockdown measures.
AU - Redlin, Margarete
ID - 33221
JF - Journal of Regulatory Economics
KW - Economics and Econometrics
SN - 0922-680X
TI - Differences in NPI strategies against COVID-19
ER -
TY - JOUR
AB - AbstractWe provide a partial equilibrium model wherein AI provides abilities combined with human skills to provide an aggregate intermediate service good. We use the model to find that the extent of automation through AI will be greater if (a) the economy is relatively abundant in sophisticated programs and machine abilities compared to human skills; (b) the economy hosts a relatively large number of AI-providing firms and experts; and (c) the task-specific productivity of AI services is relatively high compared to the task-specific productivity of general labor and labor skills. We also illustrate that the contribution of AI to aggregate productive labor service depends not only on the amount of AI services available but on the endogenous number of automated tasks, the relative productivity of standard and IT-related labor, and the substitutability of tasks. These determinants also affect the income distribution between the two kinds of labor. We derive several empirical implications and identify possible future extensions.
AU - Gries, Thomas
AU - Naudé, Wim
ID - 33220
IS - 1
JF - Journal for Labour Market Research
KW - General Medicine
SN - 2510-5019
TI - Modelling artificial intelligence in economics
VL - 56
ER -
TY - JOUR
AU - Gries, Thomas
AU - Müller, Veronika
AU - Jost, John T.
ID - 33219
IS - 2
JF - Psychological Inquiry
KW - General Psychology
SN - 1047-840X
TI - The Market for Belief Systems: A Formal Model of Ideological Choice
VL - 33
ER -
TY - GEN
AB - We study the effects of product differentiation on the bundling incentives of a two-product retailer. Two monopolistic manufacturers each produce a differentiated good. One sells it to both retailers, while the other only supplies a single retailer. Retailers compete in prices. Retail bundling is profitable when the goods are close substitutes. Only then is competition so intense that the retailer uses bundling to relax competition both within and across product markets, despite an aggravation of the double marginalization problem. Our asymmetric market structure arises endogenously for the case of close substitutes. In this case, bundling reduces social welfare.
AU - Endres-Fröhlich, Angelika Elfriede
AU - Hehenkamp, Burkhard
AU - Heinzel, Joachim
ID - 44091
KW - Retail bundling
KW - upstream market power
KW - double marginalization
KW - product differentiation
TI - The Impact of Product Differentiation on Retail Bundling in a Vertical Market
ER -
TY - GEN
AU - N., N.
ID - 42326
TI - Manipulation durch Fake-Bewertungen: Einfluss von Such- und Erfahrungsgütern auf das manipulative Verhalten des Verkäufers
ER -
TY - GEN
AU - N., N.
ID - 42322
TI - An Analysis of Coalition Formation Methods to achieve Maximum Social Surplus
ER -
TY - GEN
AU - N., N.
ID - 42324
TI - Die Möglichkeiten der Blockchain-Technologie im Supply Chain Management - eine spieltheoretische Analyse
ER -
TY - GEN
AU - N., N.
ID - 42318
TI - Kindergarten Allocation and the Tradeoff between Stability and Diversity Considerations
ER -