---
_id: '50368'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>After 50 years, there is still an
    ongoing debate about the Limits to Growth (LtG) study. This paper recalibrates
    the 2005 World3‐03 model. The input parameters are changed to better match empirical
    data on world development. An iterative method is used to compute and optimize
    different parameter sets. This improved parameter set results in a World3 simulation
    that shows the same overshoot and collapse mode in the coming decade as the original
    business as usual scenario of the LtG standard run. The main effect of the recalibration
    update is to raise the peaks of most variables and move them a few years into
    the future. The parameters with the largest relative changes are those related
    to industrial capital lifetime, pollution transmission delay, and urban‐industrial
    land development time.</jats:p>
author:
- first_name: Arjuna
  full_name: Nebel, Arjuna
  last_name: Nebel
- first_name: Alexander
  full_name: Kling, Alexander
  last_name: Kling
- first_name: Ruben
  full_name: Willamowski, Ruben
  last_name: Willamowski
- first_name: Tim
  full_name: Schell, Tim
  last_name: Schell
citation:
  ama: 'Nebel A, Kling A, Willamowski R, Schell T. Recalibration of limits to growth:
    An update of the World3 model. <i>Journal of Industrial Ecology</i>. Published
    online 2023. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13442">10.1111/jiec.13442</a>'
  apa: 'Nebel, A., Kling, A., Willamowski, R., &#38; Schell, T. (2023). Recalibration
    of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model. <i>Journal of Industrial Ecology</i>.
    <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13442">https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13442</a>'
  bibtex: '@article{Nebel_Kling_Willamowski_Schell_2023, title={Recalibration of limits
    to growth: An update of the World3 model}, DOI={<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13442">10.1111/jiec.13442</a>},
    journal={Journal of Industrial Ecology}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Nebel, Arjuna
    and Kling, Alexander and Willamowski, Ruben and Schell, Tim}, year={2023} }'
  chicago: 'Nebel, Arjuna, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, and Tim Schell. “Recalibration
    of Limits to Growth: An Update of the World3 Model.” <i>Journal of Industrial
    Ecology</i>, 2023. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13442">https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13442</a>.'
  ieee: 'A. Nebel, A. Kling, R. Willamowski, and T. Schell, “Recalibration of limits
    to growth: An update of the World3 model,” <i>Journal of Industrial Ecology</i>,
    2023, doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13442">10.1111/jiec.13442</a>.'
  mla: 'Nebel, Arjuna, et al. “Recalibration of Limits to Growth: An Update of the
    World3 Model.” <i>Journal of Industrial Ecology</i>, Wiley, 2023, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13442">10.1111/jiec.13442</a>.'
  short: A. Nebel, A. Kling, R. Willamowski, T. Schell, Journal of Industrial Ecology
    (2023).
date_created: 2024-01-09T09:26:00Z
date_updated: 2024-01-09T09:26:25Z
doi: 10.1111/jiec.13442
keyword:
- General Social Sciences
- General Environmental Science
language:
- iso: eng
project:
- _id: '52'
  name: 'PC2: Computing Resources Provided by the Paderborn Center for Parallel Computing'
publication: Journal of Industrial Ecology
publication_identifier:
  issn:
  - 1088-1980
  - 1530-9290
publication_status: published
publisher: Wiley
status: public
title: 'Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model'
type: journal_article
user_id: '67287'
year: '2023'
...