---
_id: '59439'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: '<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>When physicians are asked to determine
    the positive predictive value from the a priori probability of a disease and the
    sensitivity and false positive rate of a medical test (Bayesian reasoning), it
    often comes to misjudgments with serious consequences. In daily clinical practice,
    however, it is not only important that doctors receive a tool with which they
    can<jats:italic>correctly</jats:italic>judge—the<jats:italic>speed</jats:italic>of
    these judgments is also a crucial factor. In this study, we analyzed accuracy
    and efficiency in medical Bayesian inferences. In an empirical study we varied
    information format (probabilities vs. natural frequencies) and visualization (text
    only vs. tree only) for four contexts. 111 medical students participated in this
    study by working on four Bayesian tasks with common medical problems. The correctness
    of their answers was coded and the time spent on task was recorded. The median
    time for a correct Bayesian inference is fastest in the version with a frequency
    tree (2:55 min) compared to the version with a probability tree (5:47 min) or
    to the text only versions based on natural frequencies (4:13 min) or probabilities
    (9:59 min).The score<jats:italic>diagnostic efficiency</jats:italic>(calculated
    by: median time divided by percentage of correct inferences) is best in the version
    with a frequency tree (4:53 min). Frequency trees allow more accurate<jats:italic>and</jats:italic>faster
    judgments. Improving correctness and efficiency in Bayesian tasks might help to
    decrease overdiagnosis in daily clinical practice, which on the one hand cause
    cost and on the other hand might endanger patients’ safety.</jats:p>'
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Karin
  full_name: Binder, Karin
  id: '83381'
  last_name: Binder
- first_name: Stefan
  full_name: Krauss, Stefan
  last_name: Krauss
- first_name: Ralf
  full_name: Schmidmaier, Ralf
  last_name: Schmidmaier
- first_name: Leah T.
  full_name: Braun, Leah T.
  last_name: Braun
citation:
  ama: Binder K, Krauss S, Schmidmaier R, Braun LT. Natural frequency trees improve
    diagnostic efficiency in Bayesian reasoning. <i>Advances in Health Sciences Education</i>.
    2021;26(3):847-863. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8">10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8</a>
  apa: Binder, K., Krauss, S., Schmidmaier, R., &#38; Braun, L. T. (2021). Natural
    frequency trees improve diagnostic efficiency in Bayesian reasoning. <i>Advances
    in Health Sciences Education</i>, <i>26</i>(3), 847–863. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8</a>
  bibtex: '@article{Binder_Krauss_Schmidmaier_Braun_2021, title={Natural frequency
    trees improve diagnostic efficiency in Bayesian reasoning}, volume={26}, DOI={<a
    href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8">10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8</a>},
    number={3}, journal={Advances in Health Sciences Education}, publisher={Springer
    Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Binder, Karin and Krauss, Stefan and
    Schmidmaier, Ralf and Braun, Leah T.}, year={2021}, pages={847–863} }'
  chicago: 'Binder, Karin, Stefan Krauss, Ralf Schmidmaier, and Leah T. Braun. “Natural
    Frequency Trees Improve Diagnostic Efficiency in Bayesian Reasoning.” <i>Advances
    in Health Sciences Education</i> 26, no. 3 (2021): 847–63. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8</a>.'
  ieee: 'K. Binder, S. Krauss, R. Schmidmaier, and L. T. Braun, “Natural frequency
    trees improve diagnostic efficiency in Bayesian reasoning,” <i>Advances in Health
    Sciences Education</i>, vol. 26, no. 3, pp. 847–863, 2021, doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8">10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8</a>.'
  mla: Binder, Karin, et al. “Natural Frequency Trees Improve Diagnostic Efficiency
    in Bayesian Reasoning.” <i>Advances in Health Sciences Education</i>, vol. 26,
    no. 3, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2021, pp. 847–63, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8">10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8</a>.
  short: K. Binder, S. Krauss, R. Schmidmaier, L.T. Braun, Advances in Health Sciences
    Education 26 (2021) 847–863.
date_created: 2025-04-08T11:36:11Z
date_updated: 2025-05-17T18:23:31Z
ddc:
- '370'
doi: 10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8
file:
- access_level: closed
  content_type: application/pdf
  creator: binder
  date_created: 2025-05-17T18:23:17Z
  date_updated: 2025-05-17T18:23:17Z
  file_id: '59931'
  file_name: Binder Krauss Schmidmaier Braun 2021 Natural Frequency Trees Improve
    Diagnostic Efficiency in BR.pdf
  file_size: 1265280
  relation: main_file
  success: 1
file_date_updated: 2025-05-17T18:23:17Z
has_accepted_license: '1'
intvolume: '        26'
issue: '3'
language:
- iso: eng
page: 847-863
publication: Advances in Health Sciences Education
publication_identifier:
  issn:
  - 1382-4996
  - 1573-1677
publication_status: published
publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
status: public
title: Natural frequency trees improve diagnostic efficiency in Bayesian reasoning
type: journal_article
user_id: '83381'
volume: 26
year: '2021'
...
---
_id: '59433'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: '<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>When physicians are asked to determine
    the positive predictive value from the a priori probability of a disease and the
    sensitivity and false positive rate of a medical test (Bayesian reasoning), it
    often comes to misjudgments with serious consequences. In daily clinical practice,
    however, it is not only important that doctors receive a tool with which they
    can<jats:italic>correctly</jats:italic>judge—the<jats:italic>speed</jats:italic>of
    these judgments is also a crucial factor. In this study, we analyzed accuracy
    and efficiency in medical Bayesian inferences. In an empirical study we varied
    information format (probabilities vs. natural frequencies) and visualization (text
    only vs. tree only) for four contexts. 111 medical students participated in this
    study by working on four Bayesian tasks with common medical problems. The correctness
    of their answers was coded and the time spent on task was recorded. The median
    time for a correct Bayesian inference is fastest in the version with a frequency
    tree (2:55 min) compared to the version with a probability tree (5:47 min) or
    to the text only versions based on natural frequencies (4:13 min) or probabilities
    (9:59 min).The score<jats:italic>diagnostic efficiency</jats:italic>(calculated
    by: median time divided by percentage of correct inferences) is best in the version
    with a frequency tree (4:53 min). Frequency trees allow more accurate<jats:italic>and</jats:italic>faster
    judgments. Improving correctness and efficiency in Bayesian tasks might help to
    decrease overdiagnosis in daily clinical practice, which on the one hand cause
    cost and on the other hand might endanger patients’ safety.</jats:p>'
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Karin
  full_name: Binder, Karin
  id: '83381'
  last_name: Binder
- first_name: Stefan
  full_name: Krauss, Stefan
  last_name: Krauss
- first_name: Ralf
  full_name: Schmidmaier, Ralf
  last_name: Schmidmaier
- first_name: Leah T.
  full_name: Braun, Leah T.
  last_name: Braun
citation:
  ama: Binder K, Krauss S, Schmidmaier R, Braun LT. Natural frequency trees improve
    diagnostic efficiency in Bayesian reasoning. <i>Advances in Health Sciences Education</i>.
    2021;26(3):847-863. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8">10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8</a>
  apa: Binder, K., Krauss, S., Schmidmaier, R., &#38; Braun, L. T. (2021). Natural
    frequency trees improve diagnostic efficiency in Bayesian reasoning. <i>Advances
    in Health Sciences Education</i>, <i>26</i>(3), 847–863. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8</a>
  bibtex: '@article{Binder_Krauss_Schmidmaier_Braun_2021, title={Natural frequency
    trees improve diagnostic efficiency in Bayesian reasoning}, volume={26}, DOI={<a
    href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8">10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8</a>},
    number={3}, journal={Advances in Health Sciences Education}, publisher={Springer
    Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Binder, Karin and Krauss, Stefan and
    Schmidmaier, Ralf and Braun, Leah T.}, year={2021}, pages={847–863} }'
  chicago: 'Binder, Karin, Stefan Krauss, Ralf Schmidmaier, and Leah T. Braun. “Natural
    Frequency Trees Improve Diagnostic Efficiency in Bayesian Reasoning.” <i>Advances
    in Health Sciences Education</i> 26, no. 3 (2021): 847–63. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8</a>.'
  ieee: 'K. Binder, S. Krauss, R. Schmidmaier, and L. T. Braun, “Natural frequency
    trees improve diagnostic efficiency in Bayesian reasoning,” <i>Advances in Health
    Sciences Education</i>, vol. 26, no. 3, pp. 847–863, 2021, doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8">10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8</a>.'
  mla: Binder, Karin, et al. “Natural Frequency Trees Improve Diagnostic Efficiency
    in Bayesian Reasoning.” <i>Advances in Health Sciences Education</i>, vol. 26,
    no. 3, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2021, pp. 847–63, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8">10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8</a>.
  short: K. Binder, S. Krauss, R. Schmidmaier, L.T. Braun, Advances in Health Sciences
    Education 26 (2021) 847–863.
date_created: 2025-04-08T11:32:48Z
date_updated: 2025-05-17T18:36:06Z
ddc:
- '370'
doi: 10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8
file:
- access_level: closed
  content_type: application/pdf
  creator: binder
  date_created: 2025-05-17T18:35:43Z
  date_updated: 2025-05-17T18:35:43Z
  file_id: '59932'
  file_name: Binder et al. 2021 Natural frequency trees improve.pdf
  file_size: 1389359
  relation: main_file
  success: 1
file_date_updated: 2025-05-17T18:35:43Z
intvolume: '        26'
issue: '3'
language:
- iso: eng
page: 847-863
publication: Advances in Health Sciences Education
publication_identifier:
  issn:
  - 1382-4996
  - 1573-1677
publication_status: published
publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
status: public
title: Natural frequency trees improve diagnostic efficiency in Bayesian reasoning
type: journal_article
user_id: '83381'
volume: 26
year: '2021'
...