---
_id: '47116'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: This paper presents a comprehensive study on diagnosing a spacecraft propulsion
system utilizing data provided by the Prognostics and Health Management (PHM)
society, specifically obtained as part of the Asia-Pacific PHM conference’s data
challenge 2023. The objective of the challenge is to identify and diagnose known
faults as well as unknown anomalies in the spacecraft’s propulsion system, which
is critical for ensuring the spacecraft’s proper functionality and safety. To
address this challenge, the proposed method follows a systematic approach of feature
extraction, feature selection, and model development. The models employed in this
study are kMeans clustering and decision trees combined to ensembles, enriched
with expert knowledge. With the method presented, our team was capable of reaching
high accuracy in identifying anomalies as well as diagnosing faults, resulting
in attaining the seventh place with a score of 93.08 %.
author:
- first_name: Osarenren Kennedy
full_name: Aimiyekagbon, Osarenren Kennedy
id: '9557'
last_name: Aimiyekagbon
- first_name: Alexander
full_name: Löwen, Alexander
id: '47233'
last_name: Löwen
- first_name: Amelie
full_name: Bender, Amelie
id: '54290'
last_name: Bender
- first_name: Lars
full_name: Muth, Lars
id: '77313'
last_name: Muth
orcid: 0000-0002-2938-5616
- first_name: Walter
full_name: Sextro, Walter
id: '21220'
last_name: Sextro
citation:
ama: 'Aimiyekagbon OK, Löwen A, Bender A, Muth L, Sextro W. Expert-Informed Hierarchical
Diagnostics of Multiple Fault Modes of a Spacecraft Propulsion System. In: Proceedings
of the Asia Pacific Conference of the PHM Society 2023 . Vol 4. ; 2023. doi:10.36001/phmap.2023.v4i1.3596'
apa: Aimiyekagbon, O. K., Löwen, A., Bender, A., Muth, L., & Sextro, W. (2023).
Expert-Informed Hierarchical Diagnostics of Multiple Fault Modes of a Spacecraft
Propulsion System. Proceedings of the Asia Pacific Conference of the PHM Society
2023 , 4(1). https://doi.org/10.36001/phmap.2023.v4i1.3596
bibtex: '@inproceedings{Aimiyekagbon_Löwen_Bender_Muth_Sextro_2023, title={Expert-Informed
Hierarchical Diagnostics of Multiple Fault Modes of a Spacecraft Propulsion System},
volume={4}, DOI={10.36001/phmap.2023.v4i1.3596},
number={1}, booktitle={Proceedings of the Asia Pacific Conference of the PHM Society
2023 }, author={Aimiyekagbon, Osarenren Kennedy and Löwen, Alexander and Bender,
Amelie and Muth, Lars and Sextro, Walter}, year={2023} }'
chicago: Aimiyekagbon, Osarenren Kennedy, Alexander Löwen, Amelie Bender, Lars Muth,
and Walter Sextro. “Expert-Informed Hierarchical Diagnostics of Multiple Fault
Modes of a Spacecraft Propulsion System.” In Proceedings of the Asia Pacific
Conference of the PHM Society 2023 , Vol. 4, 2023. https://doi.org/10.36001/phmap.2023.v4i1.3596.
ieee: 'O. K. Aimiyekagbon, A. Löwen, A. Bender, L. Muth, and W. Sextro, “Expert-Informed
Hierarchical Diagnostics of Multiple Fault Modes of a Spacecraft Propulsion System,”
in Proceedings of the Asia Pacific Conference of the PHM Society 2023 ,
2023, vol. 4, no. 1, doi: 10.36001/phmap.2023.v4i1.3596.'
mla: Aimiyekagbon, Osarenren Kennedy, et al. “Expert-Informed Hierarchical Diagnostics
of Multiple Fault Modes of a Spacecraft Propulsion System.” Proceedings of
the Asia Pacific Conference of the PHM Society 2023 , vol. 4, no. 1, 2023,
doi:10.36001/phmap.2023.v4i1.3596.
short: 'O.K. Aimiyekagbon, A. Löwen, A. Bender, L. Muth, W. Sextro, in: Proceedings
of the Asia Pacific Conference of the PHM Society 2023 , 2023.'
date_created: 2023-09-18T07:52:32Z
date_updated: 2024-08-19T07:39:12Z
department:
- _id: '151'
doi: 10.36001/phmap.2023.v4i1.3596
intvolume: ' 4'
issue: '1'
keyword:
- PHM
- Fault Diagnostics
- Multiple Fault Modes
- Expert-Informed Diagnostics
- Anomaly Detection
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- open_access: '1'
url: https://www.papers.phmsociety.org/index.php/phmap/article/view/3596
oa: '1'
publication: 'Proceedings of the Asia Pacific Conference of the PHM Society 2023 '
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: Expert-Informed Hierarchical Diagnostics of Multiple Fault Modes of a Spacecraft
Propulsion System
type: conference
user_id: '9557'
volume: 4
year: '2023'
...
---
_id: '17810'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: In all fields, the significance of a reliable and accurate predictive model
is almost unquantifiable. With deep domain knowledge, models derived from first
principles typically outperforms other models in terms of reliability and accuracy.
When it may become a cumbersome or an unachievable task to build or validate such
models of complex (non-linear) systems, machine learning techniques are employed
to build predictive models. However, the accuracy of such techniques is not only
dependent on the hyper-parameters of the chosen algorithm, but also on the amount
and quality of data. This paper investigates the application of classical time
series forecasting approaches for the reliable prognostics of technical systems,
where black box machine learning techniques might not successfully be employed
given insufficient amount of data and where first principles models are infeasible
due to lack of domain specific data. Forecasting by analogy, forecasting by analytical
function fitting, an exponential smoothing forecasting method and the long short-term
memory (LSTM) are evaluated and compared against the ground truth data. As a case
study, the methods are applied to predict future crack lengths of riveted aluminium
plates under cyclic loading. The performance of the predictive models is evaluated
based on error metrics leading to a proposal of when to apply which forecasting
approach.
author:
- first_name: Osarenren Kennedy
full_name: Aimiyekagbon, Osarenren Kennedy
id: '9557'
last_name: Aimiyekagbon
- first_name: Amelie
full_name: Bender, Amelie
id: '54290'
last_name: Bender
- first_name: Walter
full_name: Sextro, Walter
id: '21220'
last_name: Sextro
citation:
ama: 'Aimiyekagbon OK, Bender A, Sextro W. Evaluation of time series forecasting
approaches for the reliable crack length prediction of riveted aluminium plates
given insufficient data. In: PHM Society European Conference. Vol 5. ;
2020.'
apa: Aimiyekagbon, O. K., Bender, A., & Sextro, W. (2020). Evaluation of time
series forecasting approaches for the reliable crack length prediction of riveted
aluminium plates given insufficient data. PHM Society European Conference,
5(1).
bibtex: '@inproceedings{Aimiyekagbon_Bender_Sextro_2020, title={Evaluation of time
series forecasting approaches for the reliable crack length prediction of riveted
aluminium plates given insufficient data}, volume={5}, number={1}, booktitle={PHM
Society European Conference}, author={Aimiyekagbon, Osarenren Kennedy and Bender,
Amelie and Sextro, Walter}, year={2020} }'
chicago: Aimiyekagbon, Osarenren Kennedy, Amelie Bender, and Walter Sextro. “Evaluation
of Time Series Forecasting Approaches for the Reliable Crack Length Prediction
of Riveted Aluminium Plates given Insufficient Data.” In PHM Society European
Conference, Vol. 5, 2020.
ieee: O. K. Aimiyekagbon, A. Bender, and W. Sextro, “Evaluation of time series forecasting
approaches for the reliable crack length prediction of riveted aluminium plates
given insufficient data,” in PHM Society European Conference, 2020, vol.
5, no. 1.
mla: Aimiyekagbon, Osarenren Kennedy, et al. “Evaluation of Time Series Forecasting
Approaches for the Reliable Crack Length Prediction of Riveted Aluminium Plates
given Insufficient Data.” PHM Society European Conference, vol. 5, no.
1, 2020.
short: 'O.K. Aimiyekagbon, A. Bender, W. Sextro, in: PHM Society European Conference,
2020.'
date_created: 2020-08-11T13:32:40Z
date_updated: 2023-09-22T09:13:16Z
department:
- _id: '151'
intvolume: ' 5'
issue: '1'
keyword:
- PHM 2019
- crack propagation
- forecasting
- unevenly spaced time series
- step ahead prediction
- short time series
language:
- iso: eng
publication: PHM Society European Conference
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: Evaluation of time series forecasting approaches for the reliable crack length
prediction of riveted aluminium plates given insufficient data
type: conference
user_id: '9557'
volume: 5
year: '2020'
...
---
_id: '9879'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: Application of prognostics and health management (PHM) in the field of Proton
Exchange Membrane (PEM) fuel cells is emerging as an important tool in increasing
the reliability and availability of these systems. Though a lot of work is currently
being conducted to develop PHM systems for fuel cells, various challenges have
been encountered including the self-healing effect after characterization as well
as accelerated degradation due to dynamic loading, all which make RUL predictions
a difficult task. In this study, a prognostic approach based on adaptive particle
filter algorithm is proposed. The novelty of the proposed method lies in the introduction
of a self-healing factor after each characterization and the adaption of the degradation
model parameters to fit to the changing degradation trend. An ensemble of five
different state models based on weighted mean is then developed. The results show
that the method is effective in estimating the remaining useful life of PEM fuel
cells, with majority of the predictions falling within 5\% error. The method was
employed in the IEEE 2014 PHM Data Challenge and led to our team emerging the
winner of the RUL category of the challenge.
author:
- first_name: 'James Kuria '
full_name: 'Kimotho, James Kuria '
last_name: Kimotho
- first_name: Tobias
full_name: Meyer, Tobias
last_name: Meyer
- first_name: Walter
full_name: Sextro, Walter
id: '21220'
last_name: Sextro
citation:
ama: 'Kimotho JK, Meyer T, Sextro W. PEM fuel cell prognostics using particle filter
with model parameter adaptation. In: Prognostics and Health Management (PHM),
2014 IEEE Conference On. ; 2014:1-6. doi:10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036406'
apa: Kimotho, J. K., Meyer, T., & Sextro, W. (2014). PEM fuel cell prognostics
using particle filter with model parameter adaptation. In Prognostics and Health
Management (PHM), 2014 IEEE Conference on (pp. 1–6). https://doi.org/10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036406
bibtex: '@inproceedings{Kimotho_Meyer_Sextro_2014, title={PEM fuel cell prognostics
using particle filter with model parameter adaptation}, DOI={10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036406},
booktitle={Prognostics and Health Management (PHM), 2014 IEEE Conference on},
author={Kimotho, James Kuria and Meyer, Tobias and Sextro, Walter}, year={2014},
pages={1–6} }'
chicago: Kimotho, James Kuria , Tobias Meyer, and Walter Sextro. “PEM Fuel Cell
Prognostics Using Particle Filter with Model Parameter Adaptation.” In Prognostics
and Health Management (PHM), 2014 IEEE Conference On, 1–6, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036406.
ieee: J. K. Kimotho, T. Meyer, and W. Sextro, “PEM fuel cell prognostics using particle
filter with model parameter adaptation,” in Prognostics and Health Management
(PHM), 2014 IEEE Conference on, 2014, pp. 1–6.
mla: Kimotho, James Kuria, et al. “PEM Fuel Cell Prognostics Using Particle Filter
with Model Parameter Adaptation.” Prognostics and Health Management (PHM),
2014 IEEE Conference On, 2014, pp. 1–6, doi:10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036406.
short: 'J.K. Kimotho, T. Meyer, W. Sextro, in: Prognostics and Health Management
(PHM), 2014 IEEE Conference On, 2014, pp. 1–6.'
date_created: 2019-05-20T13:11:02Z
date_updated: 2019-05-20T13:12:27Z
department:
- _id: '151'
doi: 10.1109/ICPHM.2014.7036406
keyword:
- ageing
- particle filtering (numerical methods)
- proton exchange membrane fuel cells
- remaining life assessment
- PEM fuel cell prognostics
- PHM
- RUL predictions
- accelerated degradation
- adaptive particle filter algorithm
- dynamic loading
- model parameter adaptation
- prognostics and health management
- proton exchange membrane fuel cells
- remaining useful life estimation
- self-healing effect
- Adaptation models
- Data models
- Degradation
- Estimation
- Fuel cells
- Mathematical model
- Prognostics and health management
language:
- iso: eng
page: 1-6
publication: Prognostics and Health Management (PHM), 2014 IEEE Conference on
status: public
title: PEM fuel cell prognostics using particle filter with model parameter adaptation
type: conference
user_id: '55222'
year: '2014'
...