[{"abstract":[{"text":"For the valuation of fast growing innovative firms Schwartz and Moon (Financ Anal J 56:62–75, 2000), (Financ Rev 36:7–26, 2001) develop a fundamental valuation model where key parameters follow stochastic processes. While prior research shows promising potential for this model, it has never been tested on a large scale dataset. Thus, guided by economic theory, this paper is the first to design a large-scale applicable implementation on around 30,000 technology firm quarter observations from 1992 to 2009 for the US to assess this model. Evaluating the feasibility and performance of the Schwartz-Moon model reveals that it is comparably accurate to the traditional sales multiple with key advantages in valuing small and non-listed firms. Most importantly, however, the model is able to indicate severe market over- or undervaluation from a fundamental perspective. We demonstrate that a trading strategy based on our implementation has significant investment value. Consequently, the model seems suitable for detecting misvaluations as the dot-com bubble.","lang":"eng"}],"publication":"Journal of Business Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking B)","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"keyword":["Schwartz-Moon model","Market mispricing","Empirical test","Company valuation","Trading strategy"],"year":"2013","issue":"9","quality_controlled":"1","title":"Valuing high technology growth firms","date_created":"2018-10-31T11:31:56Z","publisher":"Springer","status":"public","type":"journal_article","extern":"1","article_type":"original","user_id":"115848","department":[{"_id":"275"}],"_id":"5192","citation":{"ieee":"J. Klobucnik and S. Sievers, “Valuing high technology growth firms,” <i>Journal of Business Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking B)</i>, vol. 83, no. 9, pp. 947–984, 2013, doi: <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2\">https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2</a>.","chicago":"Klobucnik, Jan, and Sönke Sievers. “Valuing High Technology Growth Firms.” <i>Journal of Business Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking B)</i> 83, no. 9 (2013): 947–84. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2\">https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2</a>.","ama":"Klobucnik J, Sievers S. Valuing high technology growth firms. <i>Journal of Business Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking B)</i>. 2013;83(9):947-984. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2\">https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2</a>","bibtex":"@article{Klobucnik_Sievers_2013, title={Valuing high technology growth firms}, volume={83}, DOI={<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2\">https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2</a>}, number={9}, journal={Journal of Business Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking B)}, publisher={Springer}, author={Klobucnik, Jan and Sievers, Sönke}, year={2013}, pages={947–984} }","mla":"Klobucnik, Jan, and Sönke Sievers. “Valuing High Technology Growth Firms.” <i>Journal of Business Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking B)</i>, vol. 83, no. 9, Springer, 2013, pp. 947–84, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2\">https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2</a>.","short":"J. Klobucnik, S. Sievers, Journal of Business Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking B) 83 (2013) 947–984.","apa":"Klobucnik, J., &#38; Sievers, S. (2013). Valuing high technology growth firms. <i>Journal of Business Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking B)</i>, <i>83</i>(9), 947–984. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2\">https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2</a>"},"jel":["G11","G12","G17","G33"],"intvolume":"        83","page":"947-984","publication_status":"published","main_file_link":[{"url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2"}],"doi":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2","author":[{"first_name":"Jan","last_name":"Klobucnik","full_name":"Klobucnik, Jan"},{"first_name":"Sönke","last_name":"Sievers","full_name":"Sievers, Sönke","id":"46447"}],"volume":83,"date_updated":"2026-04-09T08:00:16Z"},{"abstract":[{"text":"We study the predictive ability of individual analyst target price changes for post-event abnormal stock returns within each recommendation category. Although prior studies generally demonstrate the investment value of target prices, we find that target price changes do not cause abnormal returns within each recommendation level. Instead, contradictory analyst signals (e.g., strong buy reiterations with large target price decreases) neutralize each other, whereas confirmatory signals reinforce each other. Further, our analysis reveals that large target price downgrades can be explained by preceding stock price decreases. However, upgrades are not preceded by stock price increases, thereby demonstrating asymmetric analyst behavior when adjusting target prices to stock prices. Our results suggest that investors should treat recommendations with caution when they are issued with large contradictory target price changes. Thus, instead of blindly following a recommendation, investors might put more weight on the change in the corresponding target price and consider transaction costs.","lang":"eng"}],"publication":"Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C)","keyword":["Analyst recommendation","Target price","Stock performance","Trading strategy"],"language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"year":"2012","issue":"4","title":"To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals","publisher":"Springer","date_created":"2018-10-31T11:34:44Z","status":"public","type":"journal_article","article_type":"original","extern":"1","_id":"5193","user_id":"46447","department":[{"_id":"275"}],"jel":["G11","G12","G17","G24"],"citation":{"ama":"Kanne S, Klobucnik J, Kreutzmann D, Sievers S. To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals. <i>Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C)</i>. 2012;26(4):405-428. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z\">10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z</a>","chicago":"Kanne, Stefan, Jan Klobucnik, Daniel Kreutzmann, and Sönke Sievers. “To Buy or Not to Buy? The Value of Contradictory Analyst Signals.” <i>Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C)</i> 26, no. 4 (2012): 405–28. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z\">https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z</a>.","ieee":"S. Kanne, J. Klobucnik, D. Kreutzmann, and S. Sievers, “To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals,” <i>Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C)</i>, vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 405–428, 2012.","apa":"Kanne, S., Klobucnik, J., Kreutzmann, D., &#38; Sievers, S. (2012). To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals. <i>Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C)</i>, <i>26</i>(4), 405–428. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z\">https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z</a>","short":"S. Kanne, J. Klobucnik, D. Kreutzmann, S. Sievers, Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C) 26 (2012) 405–428.","bibtex":"@article{Kanne_Klobucnik_Kreutzmann_Sievers_2012, title={To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals}, volume={26}, DOI={<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z\">10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z</a>}, number={4}, journal={Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C)}, publisher={Springer}, author={Kanne, Stefan and Klobucnik, Jan and Kreutzmann, Daniel and Sievers, Sönke}, year={2012}, pages={405–428} }","mla":"Kanne, Stefan, et al. “To Buy or Not to Buy? The Value of Contradictory Analyst Signals.” <i>Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C)</i>, vol. 26, no. 4, Springer, 2012, pp. 405–28, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z\">10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z</a>."},"page":"405-428","intvolume":"        26","publication_status":"published","main_file_link":[{"url":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z"}],"doi":"10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z","date_updated":"2022-01-06T07:01:43Z","author":[{"first_name":"Stefan","last_name":"Kanne","full_name":"Kanne, Stefan"},{"first_name":"Jan","full_name":"Klobucnik, Jan","last_name":"Klobucnik"},{"first_name":"Daniel","last_name":"Kreutzmann","full_name":"Kreutzmann, Daniel"},{"first_name":"Sönke","full_name":"Sievers, Sönke","id":"46447","last_name":"Sievers"}],"volume":26}]