---
_id: '5192'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: For the valuation of fast growing innovative firms Schwartz and Moon (Financ
Anal J 56:62–75, 2000), (Financ Rev 36:7–26, 2001) develop a fundamental valuation
model where key parameters follow stochastic processes. While prior research shows
promising potential for this model, it has never been tested on a large scale
dataset. Thus, guided by economic theory, this paper is the first to design a
large-scale applicable implementation on around 30,000 technology firm quarter
observations from 1992 to 2009 for the US to assess this model. Evaluating the
feasibility and performance of the Schwartz-Moon model reveals that it is comparably
accurate to the traditional sales multiple with key advantages in valuing small
and non-listed firms. Most importantly, however, the model is able to indicate
severe market over- or undervaluation from a fundamental perspective. We demonstrate
that a trading strategy based on our implementation has significant investment
value. Consequently, the model seems suitable for detecting misvaluations as the
dot-com bubble.
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Jan
full_name: Klobucnik, Jan
last_name: Klobucnik
- first_name: Sönke
full_name: Sievers, Sönke
id: '46447'
last_name: Sievers
citation:
ama: Klobucnik J, Sievers S. Valuing high technology growth firms. Journal of
Business Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking B). 2013;83(9):947-984. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2
apa: Klobucnik, J., & Sievers, S. (2013). Valuing high technology growth firms.
Journal of Business Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking B), 83(9),
947–984. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2
bibtex: '@article{Klobucnik_Sievers_2013, title={Valuing high technology growth
firms}, volume={83}, DOI={https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2},
number={9}, journal={Journal of Business Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking B)},
publisher={Springer}, author={Klobucnik, Jan and Sievers, Sönke}, year={2013},
pages={947–984} }'
chicago: 'Klobucnik, Jan, and Sönke Sievers. “Valuing High Technology Growth Firms.”
Journal of Business Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking B) 83, no. 9 (2013):
947–84. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2.'
ieee: 'J. Klobucnik and S. Sievers, “Valuing high technology growth firms,” Journal
of Business Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking B), vol. 83, no. 9, pp. 947–984,
2013, doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2.'
mla: Klobucnik, Jan, and Sönke Sievers. “Valuing High Technology Growth Firms.”
Journal of Business Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking B), vol. 83, no.
9, Springer, 2013, pp. 947–84, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2.
short: J. Klobucnik, S. Sievers, Journal of Business Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking
B) 83 (2013) 947–984.
date_created: 2018-10-31T11:31:56Z
date_updated: 2026-04-09T08:00:16Z
department:
- _id: '275'
doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2
extern: '1'
intvolume: ' 83'
issue: '9'
jel:
- G11
- G12
- G17
- G33
keyword:
- Schwartz-Moon model
- Market mispricing
- Empirical test
- Company valuation
- Trading strategy
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- url: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11573-013-0684-2
page: 947-984
publication: Journal of Business Economics (VHB-JOURQUAL 4 Ranking B)
publication_status: published
publisher: Springer
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: Valuing high technology growth firms
type: journal_article
user_id: '115848'
volume: 83
year: '2013'
...
---
_id: '5193'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: We study the predictive ability of individual analyst target price changes
for post-event abnormal stock returns within each recommendation category. Although
prior studies generally demonstrate the investment value of target prices, we
find that target price changes do not cause abnormal returns within each recommendation
level. Instead, contradictory analyst signals (e.g., strong buy reiterations with
large target price decreases) neutralize each other, whereas confirmatory signals
reinforce each other. Further, our analysis reveals that large target price downgrades
can be explained by preceding stock price decreases. However, upgrades are not
preceded by stock price increases, thereby demonstrating asymmetric analyst behavior
when adjusting target prices to stock prices. Our results suggest that investors
should treat recommendations with caution when they are issued with large contradictory
target price changes. Thus, instead of blindly following a recommendation, investors
might put more weight on the change in the corresponding target price and consider
transaction costs.
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Stefan
full_name: Kanne, Stefan
last_name: Kanne
- first_name: Jan
full_name: Klobucnik, Jan
last_name: Klobucnik
- first_name: Daniel
full_name: Kreutzmann, Daniel
last_name: Kreutzmann
- first_name: Sönke
full_name: Sievers, Sönke
id: '46447'
last_name: Sievers
citation:
ama: Kanne S, Klobucnik J, Kreutzmann D, Sievers S. To buy or not to buy? The value
of contradictory analyst signals. Financial Markets and Portfolio Management
(VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C). 2012;26(4):405-428. doi:10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z
apa: Kanne, S., Klobucnik, J., Kreutzmann, D., & Sievers, S. (2012). To buy
or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals. Financial Markets
and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C), 26(4), 405–428.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z
bibtex: '@article{Kanne_Klobucnik_Kreutzmann_Sievers_2012, title={To buy or not
to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals}, volume={26}, DOI={10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z},
number={4}, journal={Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL
3 Ranking C)}, publisher={Springer}, author={Kanne, Stefan and Klobucnik, Jan
and Kreutzmann, Daniel and Sievers, Sönke}, year={2012}, pages={405–428} }'
chicago: 'Kanne, Stefan, Jan Klobucnik, Daniel Kreutzmann, and Sönke Sievers. “To
Buy or Not to Buy? The Value of Contradictory Analyst Signals.” Financial Markets
and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C) 26, no. 4 (2012): 405–28.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z.'
ieee: S. Kanne, J. Klobucnik, D. Kreutzmann, and S. Sievers, “To buy or not to buy?
The value of contradictory analyst signals,” Financial Markets and Portfolio
Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C), vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 405–428, 2012.
mla: Kanne, Stefan, et al. “To Buy or Not to Buy? The Value of Contradictory Analyst
Signals.” Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking
C), vol. 26, no. 4, Springer, 2012, pp. 405–28, doi:10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z.
short: S. Kanne, J. Klobucnik, D. Kreutzmann, S. Sievers, Financial Markets and
Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C) 26 (2012) 405–428.
date_created: 2018-10-31T11:34:44Z
date_updated: 2022-01-06T07:01:43Z
department:
- _id: '275'
doi: 10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z
extern: '1'
intvolume: ' 26'
issue: '4'
jel:
- G11
- G12
- G17
- G24
keyword:
- Analyst recommendation
- Target price
- Stock performance
- Trading strategy
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- url: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11408-012-0196-z
page: 405-428
publication: Financial Markets and Portfolio Management (VHB-JOURQUAL 3 Ranking C)
publication_status: published
publisher: Springer
status: public
title: To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals
type: journal_article
user_id: '46447'
volume: 26
year: '2012'
...