---
_id: '22724'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: "\r\nPredictive Maintenance as a desirable maintenance strategy in industrial
applications relies on suitable condition monitoring solutions to reduce costs
and risks of the monitored technical systems. In general, those solutions utilize
model-based or data-driven methods to diagnose the current state or predict future
states of monitored technical systems. However, both methods have their advantages
and drawbacks. Combining both methods can improve uncertainty consideration and
accuracy. Different combination approaches of those hybrid methods exist to exploit
synergy effects. The choice of an appropriate approach depends on different requirements
and the goal behind the selection of a hybrid approach.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nIn this
work, the hybrid approach for estimating remaining useful lifetime takes potential
uncertainties into account. Therefore, a data-driven estimation of new measurements
is integrated within a model-based method. To consider uncertainties within the
system, a differentiation between different system behavior is realized throughout
diverse states of degradation.\r\n\r\nThe developed hybrid prediction approach
bases on a particle filtering method combined with a machine learning method,
to estimate the remaining useful lifetime of technical systems. Particle filtering
as a Monte Carlo simulation technique is suitable to map and propagate uncertainties.
Moreover, it is a state-of-the-art model-based method for predicting remaining
useful lifetime of technical systems. To integrate uncertainties a multi-model
particle filtering approach is employed. In general, resampling as a part of the
particle filtering approach has the potential to lead to an accurate prediction.
However, in the case where no future measurements are available, it may increase
the uncertainty of the prediction. By estimating new measurements, those uncertainties
are reduced within the data-driven part of the approach. Hence, both parts of
the hybrid approach strive to account for and reduce uncertainties.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nRubber-metal-elements
are employed as a use-case to evaluate the developed approach. Rubber-metal-elements,
which are used to isolate vibrations in various systems, such as railways, trucks
and wind turbines, show various uncertainties in their behavior and their degradation.
Those uncertainties are caused by diverse inner and outer factors, such as manufacturing
influences and operating conditions. By expert knowledge the influences are described,
analyzed and if possible reduced. However, the remaining uncertainties are considered
within the hybrid prediction method. Relative temperature is the selected measurand
to describe the element’s degradation. In lifetime tests, it is measured as the
difference between the element’s temperature and the ambient temperature. Thereby,
the influence of the ambient temperature on the element’s temperature is taken
into account. Those elements show three typical states of degradation that are
identified within the temperature measurements. Depending on the particular state
of degradation a new measurement is estimated within the hybrid approach to reduce
potential uncertainties.\r\n\r\nFinally, the performance of the developed hybrid
method is compared to a model-based method for estimating the remaining useful
lifetime of the same elements. Suitable performance indices are implemented to
underline the differences between the results."
author:
- first_name: Amelie
full_name: Bender, Amelie
id: '54290'
last_name: Bender
- first_name: Walter
full_name: Sextro, Walter
id: '21220'
last_name: Sextro
citation:
ama: 'Bender A, Sextro W. Hybrid Prediction Method for Remaining Useful Lifetime
Estimation Considering Uncertainties. In: Do P, King S, Fink Olga, eds. Proceedings
of the European Conference of the PHM Society 2021. Vol 6. ; 2021. doi:https://doi.org/10.36001/phme.2021.v6i1.2843
'
apa: Bender, A., & Sextro, W. (2021). Hybrid Prediction Method for Remaining
Useful Lifetime Estimation Considering Uncertainties. In P. Do, S. King, & Olga
Fink (Eds.), Proceedings of the European Conference of the PHM Society 2021
(Vol. 6, Issue 1). https://doi.org/10.36001/phme.2021.v6i1.2843
bibtex: '@inproceedings{Bender_Sextro_2021, title={Hybrid Prediction Method for
Remaining Useful Lifetime Estimation Considering Uncertainties}, volume={6}, DOI={https://doi.org/10.36001/phme.2021.v6i1.2843
}, number={1}, booktitle={Proceedings of the European Conference of the PHM
Society 2021}, author={Bender, Amelie and Sextro, Walter}, editor={Do, Phuc and
King, Steve and Fink, Olga}, year={2021} }'
chicago: Bender, Amelie, and Walter Sextro. “Hybrid Prediction Method for Remaining
Useful Lifetime Estimation Considering Uncertainties.” In Proceedings of the
European Conference of the PHM Society 2021, edited by Phuc Do, Steve King,
and Olga Fink, Vol. 6, 2021. https://doi.org/10.36001/phme.2021.v6i1.2843 .
ieee: 'A. Bender and W. Sextro, “Hybrid Prediction Method for Remaining Useful Lifetime
Estimation Considering Uncertainties,” in Proceedings of the European Conference
of the PHM Society 2021, 2021, vol. 6, no. 1, doi: https://doi.org/10.36001/phme.2021.v6i1.2843 .'
mla: Bender, Amelie, and Walter Sextro. “Hybrid Prediction Method for Remaining
Useful Lifetime Estimation Considering Uncertainties.” Proceedings of the European
Conference of the PHM Society 2021, edited by Phuc Do et al., vol. 6, no.
1, 2021, doi:https://doi.org/10.36001/phme.2021.v6i1.2843
.
short: 'A. Bender, W. Sextro, in: P. Do, S. King, Olga Fink (Eds.), Proceedings
of the European Conference of the PHM Society 2021, 2021.'
conference:
end_date: 2021-07-02
name: 6th European Conference of Prognostics and Health Management
start_date: 2021-06-28
date_created: 2021-07-14T06:29:08Z
date_updated: 2023-09-22T07:19:48Z
department:
- _id: '151'
doi: 'https://doi.org/10.36001/phme.2021.v6i1.2843 '
editor:
- first_name: 'Phuc '
full_name: 'Do, Phuc '
last_name: Do
- first_name: Steve
full_name: King, Steve
last_name: King
- first_name: ' Olga'
full_name: Fink, Olga
last_name: Fink
intvolume: ' 6'
issue: '1'
keyword:
- Hybrid prediction method
- Multi-model particle filtering
- Uncertainty quantification
- RUL estimation
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- open_access: '1'
url: https://papers.phmsociety.org/index.php/phme/article/view/2843
oa: '1'
publication: Proceedings of the European Conference of the PHM Society 2021
publication_identifier:
unknown:
- 978-1-936263-34-9
publication_status: published
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: Hybrid Prediction Method for Remaining Useful Lifetime Estimation Considering
Uncertainties
type: conference
user_id: '54290'
volume: 6
year: '2021'
...
---
_id: '17199'
abstract:
- lang: eng
text: 'Research of tutoring in parent-infant interaction has shown that tutors -
when presenting some action - modify both their verbal and manual performance
for the learner (‘motherese’, ‘motionese’). Investigating the sources and effects
of the tutors’ action modifications, we suggest an interactional account of ‘motionese’.
Using video-data from a semi-experimental study in which parents taught their
8 to 11 month old infants how to nest a set of differently sized cups, we found
that the tutors’ action modifications (in particular: high arches) functioned
as an orienting device to guide the infant’s visual attention (gaze). Action modification
and the recipient’s gaze can be seen to have a reciprocal sequential relationship
and to constitute a constant loop of mutual adjustments. Implications are discussed
for developmental research and for robotic ‘Social Learning’. We argue that a
robot system could use on-line feedback strategies (e.g. gaze) to pro-actively
shape a tutor’s action presentation as it emerges.'
author:
- first_name: Karola
full_name: Pitsch, Karola
last_name: Pitsch
- first_name: Anna-Lisa
full_name: Vollmer, Anna-Lisa
last_name: Vollmer
- first_name: Katharina
full_name: Rohlfing, Katharina
id: '50352'
last_name: Rohlfing
- first_name: Jannik
full_name: Fritsch, Jannik
last_name: Fritsch
- first_name: Britta
full_name: Wrede, Britta
last_name: Wrede
citation:
ama: 'Pitsch K, Vollmer A-L, Rohlfing K, Fritsch J, Wrede B. Tutoring in adult-child-interaction:
On the loop of the tutor’s action modification and the recipient’s gaze. Interaction
Studies. 2014;15(1):55-98. doi:10.1075/is.15.1.03pit'
apa: 'Pitsch, K., Vollmer, A.-L., Rohlfing, K., Fritsch, J., & Wrede, B. (2014).
Tutoring in adult-child-interaction: On the loop of the tutor’s action modification
and the recipient’s gaze. Interaction Studies, 15(1), 55–98. https://doi.org/10.1075/is.15.1.03pit'
bibtex: '@article{Pitsch_Vollmer_Rohlfing_Fritsch_Wrede_2014, title={Tutoring in
adult-child-interaction: On the loop of the tutor’s action modification and the
recipient’s gaze}, volume={15}, DOI={10.1075/is.15.1.03pit},
number={1}, journal={Interaction Studies}, publisher={John Benjamins Publishing
Company}, author={Pitsch, Karola and Vollmer, Anna-Lisa and Rohlfing, Katharina
and Fritsch, Jannik and Wrede, Britta}, year={2014}, pages={55–98} }'
chicago: 'Pitsch, Karola, Anna-Lisa Vollmer, Katharina Rohlfing, Jannik Fritsch,
and Britta Wrede. “Tutoring in Adult-Child-Interaction: On the Loop of the Tutor’s
Action Modification and the Recipient’s Gaze.” Interaction Studies 15,
no. 1 (2014): 55–98. https://doi.org/10.1075/is.15.1.03pit.'
ieee: 'K. Pitsch, A.-L. Vollmer, K. Rohlfing, J. Fritsch, and B. Wrede, “Tutoring
in adult-child-interaction: On the loop of the tutor’s action modification and
the recipient’s gaze,” Interaction Studies, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 55–98,
2014, doi: 10.1075/is.15.1.03pit.'
mla: 'Pitsch, Karola, et al. “Tutoring in Adult-Child-Interaction: On the Loop of
the Tutor’s Action Modification and the Recipient’s Gaze.” Interaction Studies,
vol. 15, no. 1, John Benjamins Publishing Company, 2014, pp. 55–98, doi:10.1075/is.15.1.03pit.'
short: K. Pitsch, A.-L. Vollmer, K. Rohlfing, J. Fritsch, B. Wrede, Interaction
Studies 15 (2014) 55–98.
date_created: 2020-06-24T13:01:17Z
date_updated: 2023-02-01T16:10:52Z
department:
- _id: '749'
doi: 10.1075/is.15.1.03pit
intvolume: ' 15'
issue: '1'
keyword:
- conversation analysis
- interactional coordination
- adult-child-interaction
- feedback
- gaze
- quantification
- social learning
- motionese
- tutoring
language:
- iso: eng
page: 55-98
publication: Interaction Studies
publication_identifier:
issn:
- 1572-0381
publisher: John Benjamins Publishing Company
status: public
title: 'Tutoring in adult-child-interaction: On the loop of the tutor''s action modification
and the recipient''s gaze'
type: journal_article
user_id: '14931'
volume: 15
year: '2014'
...