---
_id: '64810'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: Grocery retailers frequently apply price discounts to stimulate demand for
    expiring perishables. However, integrating these discounted sales into future
    demand forecasts presents a significant challenge. This study investigates the
    effectiveness of incorporating a fixed share of these sales as \textit{regular}
    demand into the forecast, as commonly applied in practice. We employ a two-step
    regression approach on data from a major European grocery retailer, covering over
    1,700 products across 676 stores. We reveal that forecasts underestimate actual
    demand for most SKUs when discounted sales occur. This residual uplift effect
    is significantly influenced by the number of sales at reduced prices. Our findings
    underscore the necessity for more precise approaches to integrate discounted sales
    into demand forecasts, thereby preventing excess inventory and the associated
    economic and environmental impacts of spoilage in the grocery sector.
author:
- first_name: David
  full_name: Winkelmann, David
  last_name: Winkelmann
- first_name: Theresa
  full_name: Elbracht, Theresa
  last_name: Elbracht
- first_name: Jonas Maximilian
  full_name: Brenker, Jonas Maximilian
  id: '122957'
  last_name: Brenker
- first_name: Arnold
  full_name: Gerzen, Arnold
  last_name: Gerzen
citation:
  ama: 'Winkelmann D, Elbracht T, Brenker JM, Gerzen A. Discounted Sales of Expiring
    Perishables: Challenges for Demand Forecasting in Grocery Retail Practice. <i>arXiv:260204464</i>.
    Published online 2026.'
  apa: 'Winkelmann, D., Elbracht, T., Brenker, J. M., &#38; Gerzen, A. (2026). Discounted
    Sales of Expiring Perishables: Challenges for Demand Forecasting in Grocery Retail
    Practice. In <i>arXiv:2602.04464</i>. arXiv.'
  bibtex: '@article{Winkelmann_Elbracht_Brenker_Gerzen_2026, title={Discounted Sales
    of Expiring Perishables: Challenges for Demand Forecasting in Grocery Retail Practice},
    journal={arXiv:2602.04464}, publisher={arXiv}, author={Winkelmann, David and Elbracht,
    Theresa and Brenker, Jonas Maximilian and Gerzen, Arnold}, year={2026} }'
  chicago: 'Winkelmann, David, Theresa Elbracht, Jonas Maximilian Brenker, and Arnold
    Gerzen. “Discounted Sales of Expiring Perishables: Challenges for Demand Forecasting
    in Grocery Retail Practice.” <i>ArXiv:2602.04464</i>. arXiv, 2026.'
  ieee: 'D. Winkelmann, T. Elbracht, J. M. Brenker, and A. Gerzen, “Discounted Sales
    of Expiring Perishables: Challenges for Demand Forecasting in Grocery Retail Practice,”
    <i>arXiv:2602.04464</i>. arXiv, 2026.'
  mla: 'Winkelmann, David, et al. “Discounted Sales of Expiring Perishables: Challenges
    for Demand Forecasting in Grocery Retail Practice.” <i>ArXiv:2602.04464</i>, arXiv,
    2026.'
  short: D. Winkelmann, T. Elbracht, J.M. Brenker, A. Gerzen, ArXiv:2602.04464 (2026).
date_created: 2026-03-02T13:00:32Z
date_updated: 2026-03-02T13:06:44Z
ddc:
- '330'
external_id:
  arxiv:
  - '2602.04464'
file:
- access_level: closed
  content_type: application/pdf
  creator: jbrenker
  date_created: 2026-03-02T13:01:09Z
  date_updated: 2026-03-02T13:01:09Z
  file_id: '64811'
  file_name: 2602.04464v1.pdf
  file_size: 258211
  relation: main_file
  success: 1
file_date_updated: 2026-03-02T13:01:09Z
has_accepted_license: '1'
language:
- iso: eng
publication: arXiv:2602.04464
publication_status: published
publisher: arXiv
related_material:
  link:
  - relation: research_paper
    url: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.04464
status: public
title: 'Discounted Sales of Expiring Perishables: Challenges for Demand Forecasting
  in Grocery Retail Practice'
type: preprint
user_id: '122957'
year: '2026'
...