[{"abstract":[{"lang":"eng","text":"Expulsion in resistance spot welding (RSW) causes weld quality fluctuations and increases quality-control effort in high-volume manufacturing. Existing data-driven studies have mainly addressed post-occurrence expulsion detection, process-end classification, or the identification of influencing factors, whereas online monitoring requires short-term risk estimation before the event occurs. In this study, expulsion prediction is formulated as a sliding-window-based pre-expulsion risk estimation task for the currently welded spot. A physics-guided hybrid GRU-XGBoost ensemble is developed to combine temporal learning from dynamic resistance and electrode-force signals with process-physics-related scalar features describing heat input, resistance state, and force response. The framework was evaluated on 2730 valid welds, including 588 expulsion and 2142 non-expulsion welds, using weld-grouped five-fold cross-validation with fold-level working-point selection. The ensemble achieved an area under the ROC curve of 0.945 ± 0.004 and a weld-level recall of 90.6 ± 3.7% at an average false alarm rate of 9.8 ± 0.2%, outperforming both individual branches. For the 533 correctly warned expulsion welds, the median early-warning lead time was 56 ms. These results indicate that online, physically interpretable pre-expulsion risk prediction is feasible under low-false-alarm constraints within the investigated RSW configuration and provide a basis for future adaptive monitoring and control studies."}],"publication":"Journal of Manufacturing Processes","department":[{"_id":"157"}],"keyword":["Resistance spot welding","Expulsion prediction","Physics-guided machine learning","Hybrid ensemble modelling","Process monitoring"],"type":"journal_article","date_created":"2026-07-18T12:03:15Z","file":[{"relation":"main_file","date_updated":"2026-07-18T12:04:02Z","file_name":"1-s2.0-S1526612526007012-main.pdf","file_size":10864983,"access_level":"closed","file_id":"66542","success":1,"content_type":"application/pdf","creator":"kekeyang","date_created":"2026-07-18T12:04:02Z"}],"intvolume":"       174","article_type":"original","date_updated":"2026-07-18T12:07:50Z","publication_status":"published","publication_identifier":{"issn":["1526-6125"]},"author":[{"id":"65085","full_name":"Yang, Keke","last_name":"Yang","orcid":"0000-0001-9201-9304","first_name":"Keke"},{"full_name":"Li, Chong","first_name":"Chong","last_name":"Li"},{"id":"38279","orcid":"0000-0001-9056-4528","last_name":"Beck","first_name":"Robert","full_name":"Beck, Robert"},{"id":"7728","full_name":"Hein, David","first_name":"David","last_name":"Hein"},{"id":"32056","full_name":"Meschut, Gerson","orcid":"0000-0002-2763-1246","last_name":"Meschut","first_name":"Gerson"}],"year":"2026","title":"A physics-guided hybrid framework for online pre-expulsion prediction in resistance spot welding","doi":"10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"main_file_link":[{"open_access":"1"}],"quality_controlled":"1","citation":{"short":"K. Yang, C. Li, R. Beck, D. Hein, G. Meschut, Journal of Manufacturing Processes 174 (2026) 135–153.","chicago":"Yang, Keke, Chong Li, Robert Beck, David Hein, and Gerson Meschut. “A Physics-Guided Hybrid Framework for Online Pre-Expulsion Prediction in Resistance Spot Welding.” <i>Journal of Manufacturing Processes</i> 174 (2026): 135–53. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042\">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042</a>.","apa":"Yang, K., Li, C., Beck, R., Hein, D., &#38; Meschut, G. (2026). A physics-guided hybrid framework for online pre-expulsion prediction in resistance spot welding. <i>Journal of Manufacturing Processes</i>, <i>174</i>, 135–153. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042\">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042</a>","ieee":"K. Yang, C. Li, R. Beck, D. Hein, and G. Meschut, “A physics-guided hybrid framework for online pre-expulsion prediction in resistance spot welding,” <i>Journal of Manufacturing Processes</i>, vol. 174, pp. 135–153, 2026, doi: <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042\">10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042</a>.","ama":"Yang K, Li C, Beck R, Hein D, Meschut G. A physics-guided hybrid framework for online pre-expulsion prediction in resistance spot welding. <i>Journal of Manufacturing Processes</i>. 2026;174:135-153. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042\">10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042</a>","bibtex":"@article{Yang_Li_Beck_Hein_Meschut_2026, title={A physics-guided hybrid framework for online pre-expulsion prediction in resistance spot welding}, volume={174}, DOI={<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042\">10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042</a>}, journal={Journal of Manufacturing Processes}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Yang, Keke and Li, Chong and Beck, Robert and Hein, David and Meschut, Gerson}, year={2026}, pages={135–153} }","mla":"Yang, Keke, et al. “A Physics-Guided Hybrid Framework for Online Pre-Expulsion Prediction in Resistance Spot Welding.” <i>Journal of Manufacturing Processes</i>, vol. 174, Elsevier BV, 2026, pp. 135–53, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042\">10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042</a>."},"file_date_updated":"2026-07-18T12:04:02Z","oa":"1","has_accepted_license":"1","status":"public","volume":174,"ddc":["600"],"user_id":"65085","publisher":"Elsevier BV","_id":"66541","page":"135-153"},{"project":[{"name":"TRR 285 - A: TRR 285 - Project Area A","_id":"131"},{"_id":"135","name":"TRR 285 – A01: TRR 285 - Subproject A01"},{"_id":"130","name":"TRR 285:  Methodenentwicklung zur mechanischen Fügbarkeit in wandlungsfähigen Prozessketten"}],"quality_controlled":"1","citation":{"ama":"Böhnke M, Bielak CR, Beck R, Bobbert M, Meschut G. Development of a friction model for the numerical simulation of clinching processes. <i>Friction</i>. Published online 2024. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.26599/frict.2025.9441052\">10.26599/frict.2025.9441052</a>","bibtex":"@article{Böhnke_Bielak_Beck_Bobbert_Meschut_2024, title={Development of a friction model for the numerical simulation of clinching processes}, DOI={<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.26599/frict.2025.9441052\">10.26599/frict.2025.9441052</a>}, journal={Friction}, publisher={Tsinghua University Press}, author={Böhnke, Max and Bielak, Christian Roman and Beck, Robert and Bobbert, Mathias and Meschut, Gerson}, year={2024} }","mla":"Böhnke, Max, et al. “Development of a Friction Model for the Numerical Simulation of Clinching Processes.” <i>Friction</i>, Tsinghua University Press, 2024, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.26599/frict.2025.9441052\">10.26599/frict.2025.9441052</a>.","short":"M. Böhnke, C.R. Bielak, R. Beck, M. Bobbert, G. Meschut, Friction (2024).","chicago":"Böhnke, Max, Christian Roman Bielak, Robert Beck, Mathias Bobbert, and Gerson Meschut. “Development of a Friction Model for the Numerical Simulation of Clinching Processes.” <i>Friction</i>, 2024. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.26599/frict.2025.9441052\">https://doi.org/10.26599/frict.2025.9441052</a>.","apa":"Böhnke, M., Bielak, C. R., Beck, R., Bobbert, M., &#38; Meschut, G. (2024). Development of a friction model for the numerical simulation of clinching processes. <i>Friction</i>. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.26599/frict.2025.9441052\">https://doi.org/10.26599/frict.2025.9441052</a>","ieee":"M. Böhnke, C. R. Bielak, R. Beck, M. Bobbert, and G. Meschut, “Development of a friction model for the numerical simulation of clinching processes,” <i>Friction</i>, 2024, doi: <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.26599/frict.2025.9441052\">10.26599/frict.2025.9441052</a>."},"publication":"Friction","department":[{"_id":"157"}],"type":"journal_article","date_created":"2024-12-11T14:45:57Z","article_type":"original","publication_status":"published","date_updated":"2026-05-12T14:08:38Z","publication_identifier":{"issn":["2223-7690","2223-7704"]},"author":[{"full_name":"Böhnke, Max","last_name":"Böhnke","first_name":"Max","id":"45779"},{"id":"34782","full_name":"Bielak, Christian Roman","last_name":"Bielak","first_name":"Christian Roman"},{"last_name":"Beck","orcid":"0000-0001-9056-4528","first_name":"Robert","full_name":"Beck, Robert","id":"38279"},{"id":"7850","full_name":"Bobbert, Mathias","last_name":"Bobbert","first_name":"Mathias"},{"id":"32056","first_name":"Gerson","orcid":"0000-0002-2763-1246","last_name":"Meschut","full_name":"Meschut, Gerson"}],"status":"public","title":"Development of a friction model for the numerical simulation of clinching processes","year":"2024","user_id":"7850","doi":"10.26599/frict.2025.9441052","_id":"57742","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"publisher":"Tsinghua University Press"},{"user_id":"59675","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"_id":"22225","date_updated":"2022-01-06T06:55:29Z","conference":{"end_date":"2021-04-22","start_date":"2021-04-19","name":"Joining in Car Body Engineering 2021","location":"Bad Nauheim"},"author":[{"full_name":"Ivanjko, Martin","last_name":"Ivanjko","first_name":"Martin","id":"59675"},{"id":"38279","last_name":"Beck","first_name":"Robert","full_name":"Beck, Robert"},{"full_name":"Meschut, Gerson","first_name":"Gerson","last_name":"Meschut","orcid":"0000-0002-2763-1246","id":"32056"},{"first_name":"Jonas","last_name":"Zweck","full_name":"Zweck, Jonas"},{"last_name":"Richter","first_name":"Thomas","full_name":"Richter, Thomas"}],"year":"2021","title":"Development of an adaptive, sensor-based FDS-robot-system","status":"public","department":[{"_id":"157"}],"type":"conference","date_created":"2021-05-25T09:20:49Z","citation":{"mla":"Ivanjko, Martin, et al. <i>Development of an Adaptive, Sensor-Based FDS-Robot-System</i>. 2021.","bibtex":"@inproceedings{Ivanjko_Beck_Meschut_Zweck_Richter_2021, title={Development of an adaptive, sensor-based FDS-robot-system}, author={Ivanjko, Martin and Beck, Robert and Meschut, Gerson and Zweck, Jonas and Richter, Thomas}, year={2021} }","ama":"Ivanjko M, Beck R, Meschut G, Zweck J, Richter T. Development of an adaptive, sensor-based FDS-robot-system. In: ; 2021.","ieee":"M. Ivanjko, R. Beck, G. Meschut, J. Zweck, and T. Richter, “Development of an adaptive, sensor-based FDS-robot-system,” presented at the Joining in Car Body Engineering 2021, Bad Nauheim, 2021.","apa":"Ivanjko, M., Beck, R., Meschut, G., Zweck, J., &#38; Richter, T. (2021). Development of an adaptive, sensor-based FDS-robot-system. Presented at the Joining in Car Body Engineering 2021, Bad Nauheim.","chicago":"Ivanjko, Martin, Robert Beck, Gerson Meschut, Jonas Zweck, and Thomas Richter. “Development of an Adaptive, Sensor-Based FDS-Robot-System,” 2021.","short":"M. Ivanjko, R. Beck, G. Meschut, J. Zweck, T. Richter, in: 2021."}},{"date_updated":"2022-03-24T09:39:11Z","publication_status":"published","author":[{"id":"34782","first_name":"Christian Roman","last_name":"Bielak","full_name":"Bielak, Christian Roman"},{"id":"45779","full_name":"Böhnke, Max","first_name":"Max","last_name":"Böhnke"},{"last_name":"Beck","first_name":"Robert","full_name":"Beck, Robert","id":"38279"},{"first_name":"Mathias","last_name":"Bobbert","full_name":"Bobbert, Mathias","id":"7850"},{"id":"32056","full_name":"Meschut, Gerson","first_name":"Gerson","last_name":"Meschut","orcid":"0000-0002-2763-1246"}],"publication_identifier":{"unknown":["https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038"]},"status":"public","title":"Numerical analysis of the robustness of clinching process considering the pre-forming of the parts ","year":"2020","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038","user_id":"34782","publisher":"Elsevier","_id":"20678","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"project":[{"name":"TRR 285: TRR 285","grant_number":"418701707","_id":"130"},{"_id":"131","name":"TRR 285 - A: TRR 285 - Project Area A"},{"name":"TRR 285 – A01: TRR 285 - Subproject A01","_id":"135"}],"citation":{"apa":"Bielak, C. R., Böhnke, M., Beck, R., Bobbert, M., &#38; Meschut, G. (2020). Numerical analysis of the robustness of clinching process considering the pre-forming of the parts . <i>Journal of Advanced Joining Processes. </i>. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038\">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038</a>","ieee":"C. R. Bielak, M. Böhnke, R. Beck, M. Bobbert, and G. Meschut, “Numerical analysis of the robustness of clinching process considering the pre-forming of the parts ,” <i>Journal of Advanced Joining Processes. </i>, 2020, doi: <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038\">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038</a>.","chicago":"Bielak, Christian Roman, Max Böhnke, Robert Beck, Mathias Bobbert, and Gerson Meschut. “Numerical Analysis of the Robustness of Clinching Process Considering the Pre-Forming of the Parts .” <i>Journal of Advanced Joining Processes. </i>, 2020. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038\">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038</a>.","short":"C.R. Bielak, M. Böhnke, R. Beck, M. Bobbert, G. Meschut, Journal of Advanced Joining Processes.  (2020).","mla":"Bielak, Christian Roman, et al. “Numerical Analysis of the Robustness of Clinching Process Considering the Pre-Forming of the Parts .” <i>Journal of Advanced Joining Processes. </i>, Elsevier, 2020, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038\">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038</a>.","ama":"Bielak CR, Böhnke M, Beck R, Bobbert M, Meschut G. Numerical analysis of the robustness of clinching process considering the pre-forming of the parts . <i>Journal of Advanced Joining Processes </i>. Published online 2020. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038\">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038</a>","bibtex":"@article{Bielak_Böhnke_Beck_Bobbert_Meschut_2020, title={Numerical analysis of the robustness of clinching process considering the pre-forming of the parts }, DOI={<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038\">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038</a>}, journal={Journal of Advanced Joining Processes. }, publisher={Elsevier}, author={Bielak, Christian Roman and Böhnke, Max and Beck, Robert and Bobbert, Mathias and Meschut, Gerson}, year={2020} }"},"publication":"Journal of Advanced Joining Processes. ","department":[{"_id":"157"}],"keyword":["Clinching","process simulation","FEM","pre-straining","sensitivity analysis"],"type":"journal_article","date_created":"2020-12-02T16:21:34Z"}]