---
_id: '66541'
abstract:
- lang: eng
  text: Expulsion in resistance spot welding (RSW) causes weld quality fluctuations
    and increases quality-control effort in high-volume manufacturing. Existing data-driven
    studies have mainly addressed post-occurrence expulsion detection, process-end
    classification, or the identification of influencing factors, whereas online monitoring
    requires short-term risk estimation before the event occurs. In this study, expulsion
    prediction is formulated as a sliding-window-based pre-expulsion risk estimation
    task for the currently welded spot. A physics-guided hybrid GRU-XGBoost ensemble
    is developed to combine temporal learning from dynamic resistance and electrode-force
    signals with process-physics-related scalar features describing heat input, resistance
    state, and force response. The framework was evaluated on 2730 valid welds, including
    588 expulsion and 2142 non-expulsion welds, using weld-grouped five-fold cross-validation
    with fold-level working-point selection. The ensemble achieved an area under the
    ROC curve of 0.945 ± 0.004 and a weld-level recall of 90.6 ± 3.7% at an average
    false alarm rate of 9.8 ± 0.2%, outperforming both individual branches. For the
    533 correctly warned expulsion welds, the median early-warning lead time was 56
    ms. These results indicate that online, physically interpretable pre-expulsion
    risk prediction is feasible under low-false-alarm constraints within the investigated
    RSW configuration and provide a basis for future adaptive monitoring and control
    studies.
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Keke
  full_name: Yang, Keke
  id: '65085'
  last_name: Yang
  orcid: 0000-0001-9201-9304
- first_name: Chong
  full_name: Li, Chong
  last_name: Li
- first_name: Robert
  full_name: Beck, Robert
  id: '38279'
  last_name: Beck
  orcid: 0000-0001-9056-4528
- first_name: David
  full_name: Hein, David
  id: '7728'
  last_name: Hein
- first_name: Gerson
  full_name: Meschut, Gerson
  id: '32056'
  last_name: Meschut
  orcid: 0000-0002-2763-1246
citation:
  ama: Yang K, Li C, Beck R, Hein D, Meschut G. A physics-guided hybrid framework
    for online pre-expulsion prediction in resistance spot welding. <i>Journal of
    Manufacturing Processes</i>. 2026;174:135-153. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042">10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042</a>
  apa: Yang, K., Li, C., Beck, R., Hein, D., &#38; Meschut, G. (2026). A physics-guided
    hybrid framework for online pre-expulsion prediction in resistance spot welding.
    <i>Journal of Manufacturing Processes</i>, <i>174</i>, 135–153. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042</a>
  bibtex: '@article{Yang_Li_Beck_Hein_Meschut_2026, title={A physics-guided hybrid
    framework for online pre-expulsion prediction in resistance spot welding}, volume={174},
    DOI={<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042">10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042</a>},
    journal={Journal of Manufacturing Processes}, publisher={Elsevier BV}, author={Yang,
    Keke and Li, Chong and Beck, Robert and Hein, David and Meschut, Gerson}, year={2026},
    pages={135–153} }'
  chicago: 'Yang, Keke, Chong Li, Robert Beck, David Hein, and Gerson Meschut. “A
    Physics-Guided Hybrid Framework for Online Pre-Expulsion Prediction in Resistance
    Spot Welding.” <i>Journal of Manufacturing Processes</i> 174 (2026): 135–53. <a
    href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042</a>.'
  ieee: 'K. Yang, C. Li, R. Beck, D. Hein, and G. Meschut, “A physics-guided hybrid
    framework for online pre-expulsion prediction in resistance spot welding,” <i>Journal
    of Manufacturing Processes</i>, vol. 174, pp. 135–153, 2026, doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042">10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042</a>.'
  mla: Yang, Keke, et al. “A Physics-Guided Hybrid Framework for Online Pre-Expulsion
    Prediction in Resistance Spot Welding.” <i>Journal of Manufacturing Processes</i>,
    vol. 174, Elsevier BV, 2026, pp. 135–53, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042">10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042</a>.
  short: K. Yang, C. Li, R. Beck, D. Hein, G. Meschut, Journal of Manufacturing Processes
    174 (2026) 135–153.
date_created: 2026-07-18T12:03:15Z
date_updated: 2026-07-18T12:07:50Z
ddc:
- '600'
department:
- _id: '157'
doi: 10.1016/j.jmapro.2026.07.042
file:
- access_level: closed
  content_type: application/pdf
  creator: kekeyang
  date_created: 2026-07-18T12:04:02Z
  date_updated: 2026-07-18T12:04:02Z
  file_id: '66542'
  file_name: 1-s2.0-S1526612526007012-main.pdf
  file_size: 10864983
  relation: main_file
  success: 1
file_date_updated: 2026-07-18T12:04:02Z
has_accepted_license: '1'
intvolume: '       174'
keyword:
- Resistance spot welding
- Expulsion prediction
- Physics-guided machine learning
- Hybrid ensemble modelling
- Process monitoring
language:
- iso: eng
main_file_link:
- open_access: '1'
oa: '1'
page: 135-153
publication: Journal of Manufacturing Processes
publication_identifier:
  issn:
  - 1526-6125
publication_status: published
publisher: Elsevier BV
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: A physics-guided hybrid framework for online pre-expulsion prediction in resistance
  spot welding
type: journal_article
user_id: '65085'
volume: 174
year: '2026'
...
---
_id: '57742'
article_type: original
author:
- first_name: Max
  full_name: Böhnke, Max
  id: '45779'
  last_name: Böhnke
- first_name: Christian Roman
  full_name: Bielak, Christian Roman
  id: '34782'
  last_name: Bielak
- first_name: Robert
  full_name: Beck, Robert
  id: '38279'
  last_name: Beck
  orcid: 0000-0001-9056-4528
- first_name: Mathias
  full_name: Bobbert, Mathias
  id: '7850'
  last_name: Bobbert
- first_name: Gerson
  full_name: Meschut, Gerson
  id: '32056'
  last_name: Meschut
  orcid: 0000-0002-2763-1246
citation:
  ama: Böhnke M, Bielak CR, Beck R, Bobbert M, Meschut G. Development of a friction
    model for the numerical simulation of clinching processes. <i>Friction</i>. Published
    online 2024. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.26599/frict.2025.9441052">10.26599/frict.2025.9441052</a>
  apa: Böhnke, M., Bielak, C. R., Beck, R., Bobbert, M., &#38; Meschut, G. (2024).
    Development of a friction model for the numerical simulation of clinching processes.
    <i>Friction</i>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.26599/frict.2025.9441052">https://doi.org/10.26599/frict.2025.9441052</a>
  bibtex: '@article{Böhnke_Bielak_Beck_Bobbert_Meschut_2024, title={Development of
    a friction model for the numerical simulation of clinching processes}, DOI={<a
    href="https://doi.org/10.26599/frict.2025.9441052">10.26599/frict.2025.9441052</a>},
    journal={Friction}, publisher={Tsinghua University Press}, author={Böhnke, Max
    and Bielak, Christian Roman and Beck, Robert and Bobbert, Mathias and Meschut,
    Gerson}, year={2024} }'
  chicago: Böhnke, Max, Christian Roman Bielak, Robert Beck, Mathias Bobbert, and
    Gerson Meschut. “Development of a Friction Model for the Numerical Simulation
    of Clinching Processes.” <i>Friction</i>, 2024. <a href="https://doi.org/10.26599/frict.2025.9441052">https://doi.org/10.26599/frict.2025.9441052</a>.
  ieee: 'M. Böhnke, C. R. Bielak, R. Beck, M. Bobbert, and G. Meschut, “Development
    of a friction model for the numerical simulation of clinching processes,” <i>Friction</i>,
    2024, doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.26599/frict.2025.9441052">10.26599/frict.2025.9441052</a>.'
  mla: Böhnke, Max, et al. “Development of a Friction Model for the Numerical Simulation
    of Clinching Processes.” <i>Friction</i>, Tsinghua University Press, 2024, doi:<a
    href="https://doi.org/10.26599/frict.2025.9441052">10.26599/frict.2025.9441052</a>.
  short: M. Böhnke, C.R. Bielak, R. Beck, M. Bobbert, G. Meschut, Friction (2024).
date_created: 2024-12-11T14:45:57Z
date_updated: 2026-05-12T14:08:38Z
department:
- _id: '157'
doi: 10.26599/frict.2025.9441052
language:
- iso: eng
project:
- _id: '131'
  name: 'TRR 285 - A: TRR 285 - Project Area A'
- _id: '135'
  name: 'TRR 285 – A01: TRR 285 - Subproject A01'
- _id: '130'
  name: 'TRR 285:  Methodenentwicklung zur mechanischen Fügbarkeit in wandlungsfähigen
    Prozessketten'
publication: Friction
publication_identifier:
  issn:
  - 2223-7690
  - 2223-7704
publication_status: published
publisher: Tsinghua University Press
quality_controlled: '1'
status: public
title: Development of a friction model for the numerical simulation of clinching processes
type: journal_article
user_id: '7850'
year: '2024'
...
---
_id: '22225'
author:
- first_name: Martin
  full_name: Ivanjko, Martin
  id: '59675'
  last_name: Ivanjko
- first_name: Robert
  full_name: Beck, Robert
  id: '38279'
  last_name: Beck
- first_name: Gerson
  full_name: Meschut, Gerson
  id: '32056'
  last_name: Meschut
  orcid: 0000-0002-2763-1246
- first_name: Jonas
  full_name: Zweck, Jonas
  last_name: Zweck
- first_name: Thomas
  full_name: Richter, Thomas
  last_name: Richter
citation:
  ama: 'Ivanjko M, Beck R, Meschut G, Zweck J, Richter T. Development of an adaptive,
    sensor-based FDS-robot-system. In: ; 2021.'
  apa: Ivanjko, M., Beck, R., Meschut, G., Zweck, J., &#38; Richter, T. (2021). Development
    of an adaptive, sensor-based FDS-robot-system. Presented at the Joining in Car
    Body Engineering 2021, Bad Nauheim.
  bibtex: '@inproceedings{Ivanjko_Beck_Meschut_Zweck_Richter_2021, title={Development
    of an adaptive, sensor-based FDS-robot-system}, author={Ivanjko, Martin and Beck,
    Robert and Meschut, Gerson and Zweck, Jonas and Richter, Thomas}, year={2021}
    }'
  chicago: Ivanjko, Martin, Robert Beck, Gerson Meschut, Jonas Zweck, and Thomas Richter.
    “Development of an Adaptive, Sensor-Based FDS-Robot-System,” 2021.
  ieee: M. Ivanjko, R. Beck, G. Meschut, J. Zweck, and T. Richter, “Development of
    an adaptive, sensor-based FDS-robot-system,” presented at the Joining in Car Body
    Engineering 2021, Bad Nauheim, 2021.
  mla: Ivanjko, Martin, et al. <i>Development of an Adaptive, Sensor-Based FDS-Robot-System</i>.
    2021.
  short: 'M. Ivanjko, R. Beck, G. Meschut, J. Zweck, T. Richter, in: 2021.'
conference:
  end_date: 2021-04-22
  location: Bad Nauheim
  name: Joining in Car Body Engineering 2021
  start_date: 2021-04-19
date_created: 2021-05-25T09:20:49Z
date_updated: 2022-01-06T06:55:29Z
department:
- _id: '157'
language:
- iso: eng
status: public
title: Development of an adaptive, sensor-based FDS-robot-system
type: conference
user_id: '59675'
year: '2021'
...
---
_id: '20678'
author:
- first_name: Christian Roman
  full_name: Bielak, Christian Roman
  id: '34782'
  last_name: Bielak
- first_name: Max
  full_name: Böhnke, Max
  id: '45779'
  last_name: Böhnke
- first_name: Robert
  full_name: Beck, Robert
  id: '38279'
  last_name: Beck
- first_name: Mathias
  full_name: Bobbert, Mathias
  id: '7850'
  last_name: Bobbert
- first_name: Gerson
  full_name: Meschut, Gerson
  id: '32056'
  last_name: Meschut
  orcid: 0000-0002-2763-1246
citation:
  ama: Bielak CR, Böhnke M, Beck R, Bobbert M, Meschut G. Numerical analysis of the
    robustness of clinching process considering the pre-forming of the parts . <i>Journal
    of Advanced Joining Processes </i>. Published online 2020. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038</a>
  apa: Bielak, C. R., Böhnke, M., Beck, R., Bobbert, M., &#38; Meschut, G. (2020).
    Numerical analysis of the robustness of clinching process considering the pre-forming
    of the parts . <i>Journal of Advanced Joining Processes. </i>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038</a>
  bibtex: '@article{Bielak_Böhnke_Beck_Bobbert_Meschut_2020, title={Numerical analysis
    of the robustness of clinching process considering the pre-forming of the parts
    }, DOI={<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038</a>},
    journal={Journal of Advanced Joining Processes. }, publisher={Elsevier}, author={Bielak,
    Christian Roman and Böhnke, Max and Beck, Robert and Bobbert, Mathias and Meschut,
    Gerson}, year={2020} }'
  chicago: Bielak, Christian Roman, Max Böhnke, Robert Beck, Mathias Bobbert, and
    Gerson Meschut. “Numerical Analysis of the Robustness of Clinching Process Considering
    the Pre-Forming of the Parts .” <i>Journal of Advanced Joining Processes. </i>,
    2020. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038</a>.
  ieee: 'C. R. Bielak, M. Böhnke, R. Beck, M. Bobbert, and G. Meschut, “Numerical
    analysis of the robustness of clinching process considering the pre-forming of
    the parts ,” <i>Journal of Advanced Joining Processes. </i>, 2020, doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038</a>.'
  mla: Bielak, Christian Roman, et al. “Numerical Analysis of the Robustness of Clinching
    Process Considering the Pre-Forming of the Parts .” <i>Journal of Advanced Joining
    Processes. </i>, Elsevier, 2020, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038</a>.
  short: C.R. Bielak, M. Böhnke, R. Beck, M. Bobbert, G. Meschut, Journal of Advanced
    Joining Processes.  (2020).
date_created: 2020-12-02T16:21:34Z
date_updated: 2022-03-24T09:39:11Z
department:
- _id: '157'
doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038
keyword:
- Clinching
- process simulation
- FEM
- pre-straining
- sensitivity analysis
language:
- iso: eng
project:
- _id: '130'
  grant_number: '418701707'
  name: 'TRR 285: TRR 285'
- _id: '131'
  name: 'TRR 285 - A: TRR 285 - Project Area A'
- _id: '135'
  name: 'TRR 285 – A01: TRR 285 - Subproject A01'
publication: 'Journal of Advanced Joining Processes. '
publication_identifier:
  unknown:
  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jajp.2020.100038
publication_status: published
publisher: Elsevier
status: public
title: 'Numerical analysis of the robustness of clinching process considering the
  pre-forming of the parts '
type: journal_article
user_id: '34782'
year: '2020'
...