{"title":"Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model","abstract":[{"text":"<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>After 50 years, there is still an ongoing debate about the Limits to Growth (LtG) study. This paper recalibrates the 2005 World3‐03 model. The input parameters are changed to better match empirical data on world development. An iterative method is used to compute and optimize different parameter sets. This improved parameter set results in a World3 simulation that shows the same overshoot and collapse mode in the coming decade as the original business as usual scenario of the LtG standard run. The main effect of the recalibration update is to raise the peaks of most variables and move them a few years into the future. The parameters with the largest relative changes are those related to industrial capital lifetime, pollution transmission delay, and urban‐industrial land development time.</jats:p>","lang":"eng"}],"publication":"Journal of Industrial Ecology","language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"date_updated":"2024-01-09T09:26:25Z","project":[{"_id":"52","name":"PC2: Computing Resources Provided by the Paderborn Center for Parallel Computing"}],"citation":{"apa":"Nebel, A., Kling, A., Willamowski, R., &#38; Schell, T. (2023). Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model. <i>Journal of Industrial Ecology</i>. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13442\">https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13442</a>","ieee":"A. Nebel, A. Kling, R. Willamowski, and T. Schell, “Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model,” <i>Journal of Industrial Ecology</i>, 2023, doi: <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13442\">10.1111/jiec.13442</a>.","bibtex":"@article{Nebel_Kling_Willamowski_Schell_2023, title={Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model}, DOI={<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13442\">10.1111/jiec.13442</a>}, journal={Journal of Industrial Ecology}, publisher={Wiley}, author={Nebel, Arjuna and Kling, Alexander and Willamowski, Ruben and Schell, Tim}, year={2023} }","ama":"Nebel A, Kling A, Willamowski R, Schell T. Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model. <i>Journal of Industrial Ecology</i>. Published online 2023. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13442\">10.1111/jiec.13442</a>","chicago":"Nebel, Arjuna, Alexander Kling, Ruben Willamowski, and Tim Schell. “Recalibration of Limits to Growth: An Update of the World3 Model.” <i>Journal of Industrial Ecology</i>, 2023. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13442\">https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13442</a>.","mla":"Nebel, Arjuna, et al. “Recalibration of Limits to Growth: An Update of the World3 Model.” <i>Journal of Industrial Ecology</i>, Wiley, 2023, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.13442\">10.1111/jiec.13442</a>.","short":"A. Nebel, A. Kling, R. Willamowski, T. Schell, Journal of Industrial Ecology (2023)."},"keyword":["General Social Sciences","General Environmental Science"],"type":"journal_article","publisher":"Wiley","status":"public","_id":"50368","publication_status":"published","doi":"10.1111/jiec.13442","date_created":"2024-01-09T09:26:00Z","user_id":"67287","publication_identifier":{"issn":["1088-1980","1530-9290"]},"year":"2023","author":[{"first_name":"Arjuna","full_name":"Nebel, Arjuna","last_name":"Nebel"},{"first_name":"Alexander","last_name":"Kling","full_name":"Kling, Alexander"},{"full_name":"Willamowski, Ruben","last_name":"Willamowski","first_name":"Ruben"},{"first_name":"Tim","full_name":"Schell, Tim","last_name":"Schell"}]}