{"language":[{"iso":"eng"}],"user_id":"83381","publication_status":"published","citation":{"ieee":"K. Binder, S. Krauss, R. Schmidmaier, and L. T. Braun, “Natural frequency trees improve diagnostic efficiency in Bayesian reasoning,” <i>Advances in Health Sciences Education</i>, vol. 26, no. 3, pp. 847–863, 2021, doi: <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8\">10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8</a>.","ama":"Binder K, Krauss S, Schmidmaier R, Braun LT. Natural frequency trees improve diagnostic efficiency in Bayesian reasoning. <i>Advances in Health Sciences Education</i>. 2021;26(3):847-863. doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8\">10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8</a>","mla":"Binder, Karin, et al. “Natural Frequency Trees Improve Diagnostic Efficiency in Bayesian Reasoning.” <i>Advances in Health Sciences Education</i>, vol. 26, no. 3, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2021, pp. 847–63, doi:<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8\">10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8</a>.","apa":"Binder, K., Krauss, S., Schmidmaier, R., &#38; Braun, L. T. (2021). Natural frequency trees improve diagnostic efficiency in Bayesian reasoning. <i>Advances in Health Sciences Education</i>, <i>26</i>(3), 847–863. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8\">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8</a>","chicago":"Binder, Karin, Stefan Krauss, Ralf Schmidmaier, and Leah T. Braun. “Natural Frequency Trees Improve Diagnostic Efficiency in Bayesian Reasoning.” <i>Advances in Health Sciences Education</i> 26, no. 3 (2021): 847–63. <a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8\">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8</a>.","short":"K. Binder, S. Krauss, R. Schmidmaier, L.T. Braun, Advances in Health Sciences Education 26 (2021) 847–863.","bibtex":"@article{Binder_Krauss_Schmidmaier_Braun_2021, title={Natural frequency trees improve diagnostic efficiency in Bayesian reasoning}, volume={26}, DOI={<a href=\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8\">10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8</a>}, number={3}, journal={Advances in Health Sciences Education}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Binder, Karin and Krauss, Stefan and Schmidmaier, Ralf and Braun, Leah T.}, year={2021}, pages={847–863} }"},"volume":26,"title":"Natural frequency trees improve diagnostic efficiency in Bayesian reasoning","doi":"10.1007/s10459-020-10025-8","publication":"Advances in Health Sciences Education","year":"2021","publication_identifier":{"issn":["1382-4996","1573-1677"]},"abstract":[{"lang":"eng","text":"<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>When physicians are asked to determine the positive predictive value from the a priori probability of a disease and the sensitivity and false positive rate of a medical test (Bayesian reasoning), it often comes to misjudgments with serious consequences. In daily clinical practice, however, it is not only important that doctors receive a tool with which they can<jats:italic>correctly</jats:italic>judge—the<jats:italic>speed</jats:italic>of these judgments is also a crucial factor. In this study, we analyzed accuracy and efficiency in medical Bayesian inferences. In an empirical study we varied information format (probabilities vs. natural frequencies) and visualization (text only vs. tree only) for four contexts. 111 medical students participated in this study by working on four Bayesian tasks with common medical problems. The correctness of their answers was coded and the time spent on task was recorded. The median time for a correct Bayesian inference is fastest in the version with a frequency tree (2:55 min) compared to the version with a probability tree (5:47 min) or to the text only versions based on natural frequencies (4:13 min) or probabilities (9:59 min).The score<jats:italic>diagnostic efficiency</jats:italic>(calculated by: median time divided by percentage of correct inferences) is best in the version with a frequency tree (4:53 min). Frequency trees allow more accurate<jats:italic>and</jats:italic>faster judgments. Improving correctness and efficiency in Bayesian tasks might help to decrease overdiagnosis in daily clinical practice, which on the one hand cause cost and on the other hand might endanger patients’ safety.</jats:p>"}],"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","date_created":"2025-04-08T11:32:48Z","page":"847-863","intvolume":"        26","status":"public","author":[{"id":"83381","full_name":"Binder, Karin","last_name":"Binder","first_name":"Karin"},{"full_name":"Krauss, Stefan","first_name":"Stefan","last_name":"Krauss"},{"first_name":"Ralf","last_name":"Schmidmaier","full_name":"Schmidmaier, Ralf"},{"first_name":"Leah T.","last_name":"Braun","full_name":"Braun, Leah T."}],"type":"journal_article","issue":"3","_id":"59433","date_updated":"2025-04-12T18:12:25Z"}