article published Franz Yannik Fleischer author 42660https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0318-0329 Rolf Biehler author 16274 363 department <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>This study investigates how secondary students construct and evaluate decision trees in an open exploratory task using CODAP. By analyzing students’ tree products and oral self-reports, we identified different data-based and context-based approaches to predictor selection and stopping criteria. Students engaged with key ideas of predictive modeling, including classification, model construction, accuracy, generalization, and interpretability. Informal exploration offered rich opportunities for subsequent teaching by enabling students to begin reconstructing central technical ideas and critical tensions of predictive modeling through diverse but meaningful reasoning approaches.</jats:p> Springer Science and Business Media LLC2026 eng 1863-9690 1863-970410.1007/s11858-026-01806-3 Fleischer, Franz Yannik, and Rolf Biehler. “Informal Approaches to Predictive Modeling: Fostering Data Literacy and Critical Engagement through Decision Tree Construction.” <i>ZDM – Mathematics Education</i>, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2026, doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11858-026-01806-3">10.1007/s11858-026-01806-3</a>. Fleischer FY, Biehler R. Informal approaches to predictive modeling: fostering data literacy and critical engagement through decision tree construction. <i>ZDM – Mathematics Education</i>. Published online 2026. doi:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11858-026-01806-3">10.1007/s11858-026-01806-3</a> @article{Fleischer_Biehler_2026, title={Informal approaches to predictive modeling: fostering data literacy and critical engagement through decision tree construction}, DOI={<a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11858-026-01806-3">10.1007/s11858-026-01806-3</a>}, journal={ZDM – Mathematics Education}, publisher={Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, author={Fleischer, Franz Yannik and Biehler, Rolf}, year={2026} } Fleischer, F. Y., &#38; Biehler, R. (2026). Informal approaches to predictive modeling: fostering data literacy and critical engagement through decision tree construction. <i>ZDM – Mathematics Education</i>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11858-026-01806-3">https://doi.org/10.1007/s11858-026-01806-3</a> F. Y. Fleischer and R. Biehler, “Informal approaches to predictive modeling: fostering data literacy and critical engagement through decision tree construction,” <i>ZDM – Mathematics Education</i>, 2026, doi: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11858-026-01806-3">10.1007/s11858-026-01806-3</a>. F.Y. Fleischer, R. Biehler, ZDM – Mathematics Education (2026). Fleischer, Franz Yannik, and Rolf Biehler. “Informal Approaches to Predictive Modeling: Fostering Data Literacy and Critical Engagement through Decision Tree Construction.” <i>ZDM – Mathematics Education</i>, 2026. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11858-026-01806-3">https://doi.org/10.1007/s11858-026-01806-3</a>. 660742026-06-29T07:43:33Z2026-06-29T07:47:44Z