To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals

S. Kanne, J. Klobucnik, D. Kreutzmann, S. Sievers, Financial Markets and Portfolio Management 26 (2012) 405–428.

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Journal Article | Published | English
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Abstract
We study the predictive ability of individual analyst target price changes for post-event abnormal stock returns within each recommendation category. Although prior studies generally demonstrate the investment value of target prices, we find that target price changes do not cause abnormal returns within each recommendation level. Instead, contradictory analyst signals (e.g., strong buy reiterations with large target price decreases) neutralize each other, whereas confirmatory signals reinforce each other. Further, our analysis reveals that large target price downgrades can be explained by preceding stock price decreases. However, upgrades are not preceded by stock price increases, thereby demonstrating asymmetric analyst behavior when adjusting target prices to stock prices. Our results suggest that investors should treat recommendations with caution when they are issued with large contradictory target price changes. Thus, instead of blindly following a recommendation, investors might put more weight on the change in the corresponding target price and consider transaction costs.
Publishing Year
Journal Title
Financial Markets and Portfolio Management
Volume
26
Issue
4
Page
405-428
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Kanne S, Klobucnik J, Kreutzmann D, Sievers S. To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals. Financial Markets and Portfolio Management. 2012;26(4):405-428.
Kanne, S., Klobucnik, J., Kreutzmann, D., & Sievers, S. (2012). To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals. Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, 26(4), 405–428.
@article{Kanne_Klobucnik_Kreutzmann_Sievers_2012, title={To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals}, volume={26}, number={4}, journal={Financial Markets and Portfolio Management}, publisher={Springer}, author={Kanne, Stefan and Klobucnik, Jan and Kreutzmann, Daniel and Sievers, Sönke}, year={2012}, pages={405–428} }
Kanne, Stefan, Jan Klobucnik, Daniel Kreutzmann, and Sönke Sievers. “To Buy or Not to Buy? The Value of Contradictory Analyst Signals.” Financial Markets and Portfolio Management 26, no. 4 (2012): 405–28.
S. Kanne, J. Klobucnik, D. Kreutzmann, and S. Sievers, “To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals,” Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 405–428, 2012.
Kanne, Stefan, et al. “To Buy or Not to Buy? The Value of Contradictory Analyst Signals.” Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, vol. 26, no. 4, Springer, 2012, pp. 405–28.

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