Remaining useful lifetime prediction based on adaptive failure thresholds

Remaining useful lifetime (RUL) predictions as part of a condition monitoring system are focused in more and more research and industrial applications. To establish an efficient and precise estimate of the RUL of a technical product, different uncertainties have to be handled. To minimize the uncertainties of the RUL estimation, a reliable and accurate prognostic approach as well as a good failure threshold are important. Regarding the failure threshold, most often an expert sets a fixed failure threshold. However, neither the a priori known failure threshold nor a fixedthreshold value are feasible in every application. Especially in the case of varying characteristics of the monitored system, an adaptive failure threshold is of great importance concerning the accuracy of the RUL estimation. Rubber-metal-elements, which are used in a wide range of applications for vibration and sound isolation, are mon-itored by thermocouples to allow for lifetime predictions. Therefore, the element’s state is described by its temper-ature during its service life. Aiming to establish accurate RUL predictions of a rubber-metal-element, uncertainties due to nonlinear material characteristics and changing operational conditions have to be considered. Consequently, different temperature-based failure threshold definitions are implemented and compared within a particle filtering approach.