Integrating Prospective Scenarios in Life Cycle Engineering: Case Study of Lightweight Structures

<jats:p>Lightweight design is a common approach to reduce energy demand in the use stage of vehicles. The production of lightweight materials is usually associated with an increase in energy demand, so the environmental impacts of lightweight structures need to be assessed holistically using a life cycle assessment. To estimate the life cycle environmental impacts of a product in its developmental stage, for example, by life cycle engineering, future changes in relevant influencing factors must be considered. Prospective life cycle assessment provides methods for integrating future scenarios into life cycle assessment studies. However, approaches for integrating prospective life cycle assessment into product development are limited. The objective of this work is to provide the methodological foundation for integrating future scenarios of relevant influencing factors in the development of lightweight structures. The applicability of the novel methodology is demonstrated by a case study of a structural component in a steel, aluminium, and hybrid design. The results show that appropriate decarbonisation measures can reduce the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions by up to 95 percent until 2050. We also found that shifts in the environmentally optimal design are possible in future scenarios. Therefore, the methodology and data provided contribute to improved decision-making in product development.</jats:p>