Impact of Vehicle Scheduling and Strategic Transition Planning on Zero-Emission Bus Systems

This paper presents a holistic framework for the transition from diesel to electric bus networks, crucial for meeting EU regulations targeting 100% zero-emission urban buses by 2035. We employ a two-phase solution framework: in phase 1, we solve the Charging Location and Electric Vehicle Scheduling Problem to generate vehicle schedules that are feasible for electric operation; in phase 2, these schedules serve as input to a multi-period transition planning model that minimizes the total cost of ownership while determining fleet replacement and charging infrastructure deployment. Our experiments show that schedules obtained from solving the integrated charging location and vehicle scheduling problem significantly outperform traditional methods, resulting in lower total cost of ownership. Additionally, transition plans reduce local emissions by up to 85% compared to a diesel-only scenario. We find that vehicle rotations with long distances and sufficient idle time are prioritized for electrification, enabling earlier emission reductions and cost savings. This highlights the importance of adopting vehicle scheduling tailored for electric buses, rather than relying on legacy diesel schedules.